Fuel Type: Diesel

Used-car markets and RVs under limited pressure in 2021

Senior data journalist Neil King explains Autovista Group’s key predictions for the year ahead, focusing on used-car demand and residual values in this second part.

Europe’s big five markets all suffered double-digit declines in new-car registrations in 2020, but used-car transactions exhibited more resilience. The exception is Italy, which suffered the same year-on-year in used-car transactions in Italy as new-car registrations, 27.9%, according to industry association ANFIA.

In contrast to the dramatic 29% decline in new-car registrations, used-car transactions in Spain declined by 12.8% in 2020, to 1,963,053 transactions, according to GANVAM, the Spanish dealers’ association.

‚The used-car market in Spain is always more favoured than the new-car market in times of crisis. Sales fell by only 13% in 2020, and the age structure of these sales has changed substantially in recent months and will continue to do so throughout 2021. The most notable change is undoubtedly the lower prevalence of young used cars in the market, caused by the standstill in tourism and the lack of renewal of rental fleets. In 2021, we also expect a greater share of electric vehicles in the used-car market, which accounted for just 0.2% of total sales in 2020,’ explained Azofra.

In the UK, used-car sales data are not yet available for full-year 2020, but the country’s used-car market contracted by 17.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Autovista Group estimates that used-car transactions were 15% lower in the year as a whole. This is only about half the contraction suffered by the new-car market. Used-car transactions are naturally expected to improve in 2021, but with a lower growth rate than new-car registrations.

Used-car transactions in France declined by a modest 3.8% in 2020, compared to a 25.5% fall in the new-car market, according to industry association CCFA. ‘The demand for diesel cars on the used-car market is still high while the supply is lower and lower, but petrol sales, which account for about 40% of total used-car sales, reached a maximum in 2020,’ explained Yoann Taitz, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, France and Benelux. Limited growth, if any, is therefore expected in 2021.

Slight improvement for Germany

Even in Germany, where the used-car market declined by only 2.4% in 2020, according to the KBA. Schwacke expects a slight improvement in used-car sales compared to 2020. ‘The used-car business was quite successful over the past 12 months under the circumstances and sold slightly more than seven million cars by the end of the year. The forecast for 2021 is the same – around seven million cars,’ commented Andreas Geilenbrügge, head of valuations and insights at Schwacke.

Europe: new-car registrations and used-car transactions, year-on-year % change, 2020

Europa: Neuzulassungen und Gebrauchtwagen-Transaktionen, Veränderung in % gegenüber dem Vorjahr, 2020

Source: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, GANVAM, SMMT

(Note: UK is estimated, based on the latest data)

RVs grow in 2020, face limited pressure in 2021

Autovista Group’s COVID-19 tracker shows that the index of residual values (RVs) finished 2020 at or above pre-crisis levels in all of Europe’s major markets. The measurements began in February, with an index value of 100.

Grafik: Restwertprognose 2021

Source: Autovista Group, Residual Value Intelligence, COVID-19 tracker

Residual values have peaked, however, and have declined in recent weeks. Looking to 2021, ongoing COVID-19 restrictions and the economic impact, as well as the aversion to public transport, will support used-car demand. Autovista Group therefore predicts that residual values will only come under limited pressure.

Spain: difficult year

The tax rise in Spain, with the introduction of WLTP-based emissions figures, and the end to the RENOVE scrappage scheme will hinder new-car demand and means RVs may increase slightly in value terms in Spain, but a 1.1% decline is forecast in terms of trade percentage, i.e. value retention, in the standard 36-month/60,000km scenario.

‘We foresee a difficult year for the sector, especially in terms of new-car sales. However, used-car sales will resist the onslaught of the crisis better and only their average residual values will be slightly affected.’ Azofra emphasised.

‘Electric vehicles will experience greater pressure on their transaction prices in the used-car market. On the one hand, their price is still very high, which is an important market barrier, even more so in crisis circumstances such as the present. On the other hand, demand is trying to be stimulated through incentive schemes, so it will be difficult to maintain their used-car price. In addition, the recharging infrastructure is still insufficient, the poorest in the big five European countries, which reduces their development space in the used-car market. With regard to the rest of the engines, we estimate small negative adjustments in petrol and diesel vehicles and greater stability for hybrid engines, which are in increasing demand.’

The end to Brexit uncertainty could serve as a positive for the UK’s new-car market, but deliveries may be affected and price rises are expected as the share of components in some engines will invariably exceed the ‘locally-sourced’ threshold. It is an incredibly difficult call but Glass’s, the UK arm of Autovista Group, forecasts a 1.4% decline in the RVs, in trade percentage terms.

Schwacke points out that fleet registrations from 2017/2018 declined somewhat in Germany and there were also almost 400,000 tactical registrations less from 2020, of which usually two thirds are sold to end customers as young used vehicles in the year after first registration.

Stable demand

‘In view of the expected stable demand, this is definitely a plus point for price development in the coming year, but supply volume will probably struggle,’ said Geilenbrügge. The return to a 19% VAT rate on new cars will also affect RVs, but a modest decline of 0.7%, in trade percentage terms, is forecast for used cars in the 36-month/60,000km scenario.

The tax changes in France, which penalise petrol cars more than diesels, and incentives for EVs present a mixed picture. ‘In 2021, there is a clear risk of having a new-car market in contradiction with the used-car market. For CO2 reasons, the fuel types that are driving the new-car market are not the most attractive ones on the used-car market. Lower supply will reduce the RV pressure on petrol cars, and the sales stop of powerful diesel engines, which are well demanded on the used-car market will especially support RVs of these specific vehicles. The high prices and bonus for EVs still impacts RVs, especially at 12 months, but the €1,000€ bonus reduction in July 2021 will support RVs more positively,’ explained Taitz. Overall, the latest RV outlook for France calls for a minimal drop of 0.4% in the prices, in trade percentage terms, of used cars.

The poorest RV outlook is in Italy, where used cars have not weathered the COVID-19 storm better than new cars and the introduction of additional incentives for new cars will apply more pressure on used-car demand and residual values. RVs of used cars in the 36-month/60,000km scenario are currently forecast to fall by 3.9% in trade percentage terms.

In a first part, King discussed Autovista Group’s predictions for new-car registrations in Europe’s major markets in 2021.

German new-car registrations down 19% in 2020

Germany saw the registration of 2.9 million new cars in 2020, down 19.1% on 2019. The latest figures from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) show that 62.8% of these units were registered for commercial purposes, down 22.4%, while 37.1% of the market share was private, down 13%.

Bidding farewell to a year of unprecedented challenges, the German market was able to end 2020 on a marginally positive note. A total of 311,394 passenger cars were sold in December last year, up 9.9% on the same period from 2019. Accompanied by an 8.4% rise in September, the German new-car market only saw two months of registration growth in 2020. These upticks in the second half of last year represent a move away from the 61% plunge in April and 49.5% drop in May.

New-car registrations, Germany, y-o-y % change, January to December 2020

Pkw-Neuzulassungen, Deutschland, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Januar bis Dezember 2020
Data: KBA


While Germany appears to be leading the way with a recovering automotive market, difficulties continue across Europe as member states are battered by fresh pandemic waves. In December last year, French new-car registrations dropped by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2019. Italy felt a greater decline at 14.9%, while Spain saw just 13 fewer registered units than December 2019. However, Germany does not appear to be out of the woods yet.

Climbing infection rates have triggered an extension of the country’s lockdown measures until the end of January. This makes a positive start to this year seem even less likely as dealerships must remain closed, except for the service departments. While Autovista Group’s Schwacke expects to see a recovery to just under 3.1 million new-car registrations in 2021, it predicts figures will be below those in previous years, and significantly below 2019’s peak.

New-car registrations, EU4, y-o-y % change, January to December 2020

Pkw-Neuzulassungen, EU4, Veränderung in % gegenüber dem Vorjahr, Januar bis Dezember 2020

Data: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, ANFAC

Drives and segments

With the largest share of last year’s market at 46.7%, a total of 1,361,723 petrol-powered cars were registered, down 36.3% on 2019. Meanwhile, 819,896 diesel-driven cars took a 28.1% share, down 28.9% on the previous year.

Alternative drives, consisting of hybrids, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel-cell and gas claimed approximately a quarter of all new-car registrations in Germany last year. Hybrids achieved a share of 18.1%, up 120.6% on the previous period with 527,864 registrations, including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) with 200,469 units, up 342.1% and with a market share of 6.9%. Electric cars represented 6.7% of the market, up 206.8% to 194,163 units. A total of 7,159 gas-powered cars were registered in 2020, down 6.1% on 2019, and LPG-driven cars saw a drop of 9.8%, to 6,543 units. CO2 emissions from cars fell by 11.0% last year, on average to 139.8g/km from 157.0g/km in the previous reporting period.

Over half of all registrations were accounted for by SUVs (21.3%), compact cars (20.5%) or small cars (15.1%). With 2.6% of the market, motorhomes saw the most significant increase, up 41.4%.

Brand performance

All German brands showed a decline last year. Smart took the hardest fall at 67.3%, followed by Opel, which dropped by 32.3%, then Ford down 30.6%. VW fell by 21.3% on the previous reporting year, Audi slumped by 19.9%, Porsche was down by 16.3%, BMW dropped by 13.7%. Negative results were also reported by Mini (down 11.7%) and Mercedes (down 10.6%). With a share of 18%, VW held the largest share of the new-car market in 2020.

For imported brands, both Tesla (up 55.9%) and Fiat (up 0.2%) reported positive results for 2020. Meanwhile, declines were recorded by Suzuki (down 44.8%), Ssangyoung (down 40.2%), Mazda (down 38.1%) and Dacia (down 36.6%). Skoda led the imported brands with a market share of 6.2%, followed by Renault with 4.3%.

Automotive relief at Brexit deal

Following a year of unprecedented difficulties, the European Union and the UK reached an agreement on Christmas Eve for a Brexit deal.

‘It was a long and winding road. But we have got a good deal to show for it,’ said European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. ‘It is fair and balanced. And it is the right and responsible thing to do for both sides.’

Confirming the long-awaited agreement, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson estimated the free-trade deal to be worth approximately £660 billion (€735 billion). He described it as a ‘comprehensive Canada-style free-trade deal,’ which means UK goods can be sold without tariffs and quotas in the EU.

As the UK now no longer follows the EU’s rules on production standards, checks on goods have been introduced. This, in turn, creates more paperwork and red tape, which may result in delays if goods arrive at ports unprepared. However, the deal does include a 12-month grace period on some elements of the ‘rules of origin’ declarations, which require exporters to certify goods qualify as locally sourced, allowing them to avoid tariffs. Businesses will have a year to obtain supporting documents form third-party suppliers, giving some companies more time to adapt.

But how has this last minute, 1,246-page Christmas present been received by the automotive sector?

The automotive reaction

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) welcomed the deal and the relief it brought as the sector avoids the harsh consequences of a no-deal Brexit. ACEA director-general Eric-Mark Huitema explained that no other industry is more closely integrated than the European automotive sector, which depends upon complex supply chains that stretch across the region.

‘The impact of a no-deal Brexit on the EU auto industry would have been simply devastating, so we are first and foremost extremely relieved that an agreement was reached before the transition period expired,’ Huitema said. ‘Nonetheless, major challenges still lie ahead, as trade in goods will be heavily impacted by barriers to trade in the form of new customs procedures that will be introduced on 1 January 2021.’

ACEA pointed out that compared to when the UK was aligned with the EU, the deal struck by negotiators has introduced much more red tape and regulatory burden. According to ACEA, before Brexit, almost 3 million vehicles worth €54 billion were traded annually between the EU and the UK, and cross-Channel trade in automotive parts accounted for nearly €14 billion.

Phase-in period

In the UK, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) also welcomed news of the agreement as a platform for a future relationship between the EU and UK. It also identified the need for a ‘phase-in period,’ which it stated would be critical to help business on both sides adapt.

‘The tariff-free, quota-free trade industry has called for has been secured in principle. However, the six-year phase-in period and special provisions for electrified vehicles and batteries now make it imperative that the UK secures at pace investment in battery gigafactories and electrified supply chains to create the world-leading battery production infrastructure to maintain our international competitiveness,’ said Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.

The SMMT went on to call for the immediate ratification and implementation of the agreement. Members of Parliament in the UK did go on to vote overwhelmingly to back the deal, with the House of Lords also passing the bill off for Royal Assent.

The EU has also identified the need to get the agreement ratified as a matter of ‘special urgency,’ even though it was unable to do so before the UK left the single market. Given the late hour, the Commission proposed to apply the details on a provisional basis for a limited time period until 28 February 2021. The deal was also given unanimous backing by ambassadors from the 27 nations, with written approval from member states.

Now the UK can look to future partnerships with countries like Turkey, with which it recently signed a deal for preferential trading terms. New relationships like these will be essential as the country’s partnership with the EU trading bloc becomes more complex, and it navigates the terms of the deal.

‘Further ahead, we must pursue the wider trade opportunities that Brexit is supposed to deliver while accelerating the UK’s transition to electrified-vehicle manufacturing. With the deal in place, government must double down on its commitment to a green industrial revolution, create an investment climate that delivers battery-gigafactory capacity in the UK, supports supply-chain transition and maintains free-flowing trade – all essential to the UK Automotive sector’s future success,’ said Hawes.

Monthly Market Dashboard: RVs start to fall in Europe

Autovista Group’s interactive monthly market dashboard (MMD) suggests that pressure is increasing on residual values. Senior data journalist Neil King explores this month’s analytics.

This month’s MMD reveals that the average residual value (RV) of cars aged 36 months and with 60,000km grew year on year in all the Big 5 European markets in December. However, there are early indications that RVs are coming under pressure, with values lower than reported for November in Italy and the UK, and essentially stable in Germany in Spain. France bucked the trend, albeit with month-on-month pricing growth of just 1.3%. The downward trend looks set to continue in 2021.

RV retention, represented as RV%, grew year on year in all markets except Germany. The highest growth in RV% terms was in the UK, where the average RV% was 46%, equating to a 9.2% change compared to December 2019. Nevertheless, even RVs in the UK were lower than in November in terms of both value and retention.

Monatsupdate Dezember 2020

The UK enjoyed the strongest rally in used-car prices after Europe emerged from lockdowns. This was driven by the release of pent-up demand, and a starker vehicle-supply challenge than any other market, which translated into higher RVs as used-car demand outstripped supply.

However, as reported in our latest coverage of the ‘three-speed’ development of RVs across Europe, RVs in the UK have been descending from their great height since late October as pent-up demand is broadly satisfied and new-car supply has improved. With the UK under restrictions as it seeks to stem the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, like most of Europe, and the Brexit transition period ending on 31 December, a further descent is expected going into 2021.

Lockdown slowdown in France and the UK

Despite the pressure on RVs, three-year-old cars are selling quicker than a year ago in all the major European markets, except the UK. However, the average number of stock days over the last month, compared to the November MMD snapshot, rose by 14.9% in France and 16.6% in the UK as both countries have been in strict lockdowns, including the closure of dealerships. Nevertheless, three-year-old cars are still selling the quickest in the UK, moving on after an average of less than 40 days.

The greatest reduction in the average number of days for 36-month-old cars to sell, compared to the December 2019 snapshot, was in Italy. These vehicles now have to wait on average only 45 days to find a new buyer, sitting idle for 13% fewer days than in November 2019.

Two of the three fastest-selling cars in the major markets in December 2020 are Audi models in France. The A6 is taking less than 16 days to find a new home and the A4 sells after about 18 days on average. In second place is the Volvo XC90 in Italy, which needs just under 18 days to be rehomed.

Negative RV outlook

The new MMD also features the latest Autovista Group RV outlook for the major European markets. The new downward trend for RVs is unfortunately forecast to continue in 2021, with prices of used cars in the 36 month/60,000km scenario declining in all the Big 5 European markets.

In the December update, the RV outlook has improved slightly in France and the UK but values are still forecast to decline in 2021, by 0.4% and 1.4% respectively. Used-car prices are forecast to decline by 0.7% in Germany and 1.1% in Spain. The weakest outlook is for Italy, where RVs are forecast to be 3.9% lower than their current level at the end of 2021.

Click here or on the screenshot above to view the monthly market dashboard for December 2020.

Launch Report: Citroën C4 – a crossover pioneer

With the new C4, Citroën has mixed a crossover with a hatchback to deliver a C-segment car with DNA from both camps. It has more of a hatchback silhouette than an SUV, but it still offers high ground clearance and an elevated seating position, as well as an airy internal feel due to the raised roofline.

The new Citroën is equipped with progressive hydraulic shock absorbers, comfortable seats, 18-inch wheels, a digital cockpit, and offers good space between the two seat rows. It also has more than 20 advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), a head-up display and a 10-inch central console. Citroën has removed the need to use the touchscreen to access the climate controls, with a row of controls in the lower central dashboard.

The C4 is available with petrol and diesel engines, as well as a fully-electric version, the e-C4, on PSA’s modular, ‘multi-energy’ CMP platform. It is one of the hatchback/crossover pioneers in the C-segment and is offered at a reasonable price point, especially with the good level of equipment. However, some manufacturers are launching similar offerings in the coming months, increasing competition for the model.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Citroën C4 in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Launch Report Citroën C4

Corona adé? – Ein vorsichtiger Blick ins Automobiljahr 2021

Bei aller Diskussion um Maßnahmen, Impfungen und anderer gesellschaftlicher Themen in der aktuellen Pandemiebekämpfung, fällt in der Branche der Jahresrückblick meist etwas milder aus als zwischenzeitlich befürchtet. Zeit, einen vagen und etwas ungewissen ersten Blick ins nächste Jahr zu werfen.

Für das Jahr 2021 erwarten wir nach einem voraussichtlichen 2020er Ergebnis von knapp 2,9 Mio. PKW-Neuzulassungen eine Erholung auf knapp 3,1 Mio. Im Positiven dürften die wiedergewonnenen Produktionskapazitäten als auch die deutlich geringeren Mengen an sehr jungen Gebrauchten aus dem ablaufenden Jahr zu Buche schlagen.

Die in 2020 notwendige Substitution des produktionsbedingten Neuwagenmangels, wird dabei zunehmend verschwinden, aber in manchen Fällen eben immer noch lieferzeitbedingt stattfinden. Aber auch die geringeren Mengen an volumenstarken Neuerscheinungen in 2021 und die Ausdünnung der Angebotspalette, aufgrund von drohenden CO2-Strafzahlungen finden ihren Niederschlag. Insgesamt haben wir auch eine etwas gedämpfte Erwartung an die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung, die die private Kaufkraft und den Investitionswillen von gewerblichen Neuwagenkunden schmälern wird. Einige negative Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf die Binnenwirtschaft werden wir zeitverzögert eben erst im kommenden Jahr erleben.

Damit wird das Neuzulassungsergebnis in unseren Augen unter den Vorjahren und sehr deutlich unter dem Spitzenjahr 2019 liegen. 2019 war allerdings auch ein Jahr, das vor allem in gewerblichen und taktischen Zulassungen gewachsen ist, was letztendlich in erster Linie das zukünftige Gebrauchtwagenangebot erhöht, aber angesichts des kaum gewachsenen privaten Neuwagensektors keine bedarfsgesteuerte Entwicklung darstellt. Glück im Unglück, dass dieses Jahr die Neuwagenproduktion eingeschränkt war und diesen Mehrvolumen ein Ventil verschafft hat.

Bemerkenswert für alle war die Entwicklung der Neuzulassungen nach Treibstoffarten. Ein prämienbedingter immenser Schub bei Plug-Ins und vollelektrischen Modellen und heftige Einbußen an Verbrennern (Abb. 1). Neuwagen-Nachfrage ist insbesondere bei Plug-In Hybriden künstlich geschaffen worden, der der Bedarf am Gebrauchtwagenmarkt noch stark hinterherhinkt.

Für die Besitzumschreibungen erwarten wir ebenfalls eine leichte Verbesserung gegenüber dem Ausgang dieses Jahres. Das Gebrauchtwagengeschäft war im ablaufenden Jahr unter den gegebenen Umständen durchaus erfolgreich und wird bis Jahreswechsel wohl knapp über 7 Millionen PKW umgesetzt haben. In 2021 rechnen wir wieder mit etwa 7 Millionen PKW, also unter den Jahren 2017-2019, da zum einen die Flottenzulassungen aus den rückliegenden relevanten Jahren 2017/2018 etwas rückläufig waren und zudem fast 400.000 taktische Zulassungen aus 2020 fehlen, die üblicherweise zu zwei Dritteln im Jahr nach Zulassung als junge Gebrauchte an Endkunden verkauft werden. Angesichts einer zu erwartenden stabilen Nachfrage durchaus ein Pluspunkt für die Preisentwicklung im kommenden Jahr, aber die Angebotsmenge wird vermutlich schlichtweg fehlen.

Insgesamt besteht aber aus Restwertsicht für 2021 ein nicht zu unterschätzendes Risiko für junge gebrauchte Plug-In Hybride und Elektrofahrzeuge, die nun in großer Stückzahl aus taktischen Zulassungen dieses Jahres vermarktet werden müssen und mangels Kaufanreiz unter Volumen- und Preisdruck geraten werden. Verbrenner haben sich wertseitig auf niedrigem Niveau stabilisiert mit leichter Aufwärtstendenz für Diesel.

Die neue Kfz-Steuerberechnung ab Januar wird aufgrund ihrer immer noch vergleichsweise geringen finanziellen Konsequenz dabei kaum steuernde Wirkung haben. Vergleicht man beispielsweise selbst für wahre „CO2-Schleudern“ die Steuer bei einer Zulassung vor und nach dem 1. Januar 2021 kommt man auf Mehrkosten von selten nennenswert zweistelligen Euro-Beträgen im Monat.

Natürlich setzen wir bei unseren Annahmen voraus, dass das Jahr pandemisch einen optimistischen Verlauf nimmt und keine schwerwiegenden Einflüsse den Markt treffen.

Hoffen und Bangen, eine Kombination, die nach nun mehreren Branchenkrisen als Fazit unter vielen Jahresrückblicken und –ausblicken hätte stehen können.

2021 bietet aber vor allem Chancen. Egal, ob durch bessere Krisenvorbereitung, neue und digitale Geschäftsmodelle, verändertes Käuferverhalten oder zusätzlichen Dienstleistungsbedarf. Gute Konzepte setzen sich auch in schwierigen Zeiten durch.

Grafik COVID-19 Neuzulassungen nach Treibstoffart

Schwacke Insights Dezember 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Der Jahresausklang sieht aus der Vorkrisenperspektive nicht so schlecht aus, wie man im März erwartet haben mag. Das Niveau ist jedoch deutlich unter Vorjahr. Mengen wachsen langsam wieder an, weil Verkäufe leicht zurückgehen, während der Nachschub weiter fließt. Standzeiten der Verkauften sind auf erfreulich niedrigem Niveau, allerdings stagnieren die Werte für den Angebotsbestand, was für „Stehenbleiber“ spricht. Insgesamt dürfte der Bestand mittleren Alters am Jahresende ungefähr auf Vorjahresniveau liegen. Aufgrund des guten Verkaufs und geringem Nachschub sind die Jüngeren aber seltener als Weihnachten 2019. Insgesamt stehen also knapp 100.000 Gebrauchte weniger im Netz, was dem 2021er-Start geringeren Preisdruck verleiht. Bei den Schnelldrehern erfreuen sich in diesem Alterssegment zunehmend die 2017 neu zugelaufenen Sechszylinder Diesel des GLC großer Beliebtheit.

Schwacke Insights Dezember 2020

Schwacke Newcomer Dezember 2020 – Neue Modelle im Forecast

Kombinationslos glücklich – Futur composé

Im Dezember haben wir wieder Restwertprognosen für eine interessante Fahrzeugneuerscheinung in unsere Datenbank aufgenommen:

• Citroën C4

Citroën C4 – Der Nonkonformist

Der französische Kompakte hatte es seit jeher schwer am Heimatmarkt des VW Golf im deutschesten aller Segmente. Insbesondere das Fehlen einer hierzulande so beliebten Kombiversion, die es vor der Jahrtausendwende bei den Vorgängern ZX und Xsara noch gab, hat ihn viel Akzeptanz gekostet. Auf das futuristische Design des Coupés von 2004 bezieht sich die aktuelle Generation aber optisch vielleicht auch, um den einen oder anderen an dessen Erfolge in der WRC-Rallye zu erinnern. Darüber hinaus ist der Neue neben einer Coupé-Dachlinie mit Crossover-Elementen ausgestattet, wohl um der mangelnden Popularität seiner beiden Eltern optisch zu begegnen. Erhöhte Bodenfreiheit und kunststoffumrandete Radhäuser schlagen hierbei eine Brücke zu den beliebteren Hochbeinern. Ein Elternpaar war es tatsächlich, da der letzte C4 nur bis 2018 angeboten und durch den etwas glücklosen C4 Cactus bis zuletzt vertreten wurde. Beide mussten mit einem relativ hohen Anteil taktischer Zulassungen von etwa 70% eher als junger Gebrauchter einen Abnehmer finden, was sich entsprechend nachteilig auf den Wiederverkaufswert ausgewirkt hat. Die aktuelle Version versucht es mit Großzügigkeit und kommt überraschend gut ausgestattet daher. Vom Werk bekommt er immer LED-Scheinwerfer, 18-Zoll-Felgen (allerdings Stahl in der Basis), Digitaldisplay – wenn auch recht klein, Verkehrszeichenerkennung, Klimaautomatik und die Adanced Comfort Federung mit auf den Weg. Ab der zweiten Ausstattungslinie sind sogar Navigationssystem und ein ausfahrendes Head-up Display ohne Aufpreis dabei. Bei den Materialien im Innenraum zeigt der Citroën dann allerdings, dass die Marke im PSA-Konzern eher in der Budget-Region positioniert ist. Viel Hartplastik teils in Sichtebenen schmälern den Eindruck des ansonsten erfreulich frisch gestalteten Interieurs. Und wo wir bei „Sicht“ und „Schmälern“ sind, sollte der eingeschränkte Blick durch das spoiler-geteilte und wischerlose Heckfenster nicht unerwähnt bleiben. Da der in Spanien gebaute Franzose auf der modernen CMP-Plattform aufbaut, nutzt PSA die Gelegenheit, ihn auch mit Elektromotor auf die Straße zu bringen. Es fehlt hier allerdings noch eine stärkere Motorisierung, um vollständig mit VW ID.3 oder Nissan Leaf zu konkurrieren. Der neue C4 bietet insgesamt neben einer guten Ausstattung vor allem eines: Individualität. Und das ist ganz sicher im Sinne seines Namensgebers André Citroën

Newcomer Dezember 2020

UK registrations stall in November as second lockdown takes effect

UK new-car registrations fell by 27.4% year-on-year in November, as a second lockdown came into effect, closing dealerships and hampering sales. New data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reveals that 42,840 fewer cars joined British roads, resulting in a £1.3 billion (€1.4 billion) revenue hit for the market.

In total, the UK saw 113,781 new-car registrations last month, taking trade back to levels not seen since the 2008 recession. Private demand fell by 32.2%, while registrations by large fleets dropped by 22.1%. While this most recent decline demonstrates the continued impact of COVID-19, the drop was less severe than the one in the UK’s first lockdown which began in March, where registrations fell by 97.3% in April alone.

Fuel type divergence

Positive trends did continue for alternative-fuel cars, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) increasing their number of registrations, up 122.4% and 76.9% respectively. BEVs enjoyed their third-highest ever monthly market share at 9.1%, with PHEVs also building their share up to 6.8%.

Nearly 37% of the market was held by low-emission fuel types in November, resulting in a year-on-year change of 74.1%. This resulted in a combined total of 18,000 new zero-emission capable cars joining the UK’s roads during the month. Meanwhile, petrol continued to hold on to its market majority at 49.1%, with a year-on-year registrations drop of 41.9%, from 96,166 in November 2019 to 55,855 in the same period this year. Diesel sales fell by 56.2% to 15,925 in November 2020 from 36,329 units in the same period last year, holding on to 14% of the market.

Grafik: Neuwagen Anmeldungen November 2020 SMMT
Source: SMMT

Protective measures in place

November’s partial triumph is the result of manufacturers being better prepared to deal with the pandemic, having already put in place protective measures during the first wave of COVID-19 and the resulting lockdowns, such as click and collect ordering systems with little to no human contact.

‘Given the huge contribution that COVID-19-secure showrooms make to the economy and a national recovery, reopening dealerships across most of the UK will help protect jobs in retail and manufacturing and should help stimulate spending,’ the SMMT said.

So far, the automotive sector has been stripped of 663,761 units this year, down 30.7%. This means that some 31,000 cars would need to be registered every working day in December if the market was to climb back to the level expected at the beginning of 2020.


UK new-car registrations, January 2018 to December 2020 (forecast from December 2020)

UK new-car registrations, January 2018 to December 2020

Source: SMMT and Autovista Group

‘Compared with the spring lockdown, manufacturers, dealers and consumers were all better prepared to adjust to constrained trading conditions,’ said Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive. ‘But with £1.3 billion worth of new car revenue lost in November alone, the importance of showroom trading to the UK economy is evident and we must ensure they remain open in any future COVID-19 restrictions. More positively, with a vaccine now approved, the business and consumer confidence on which this sector depends can only improve, giving the industry more optimism for the turn of the year.’

Now with less than a month to go until the UK leaves the EU, talks over a trade deal look to be reaching a pinnacle moment. In the event of no free-trade agreement between the UK and EU tariffs of 10% could be added to imports and exports. Carmakers have already cautioned their inability to absorb this additional cost, meaning they could tag it onto the price of new cars imported into the country, which will only come to hurt the sector further.

New-car registrations deteriorate across Europe in November

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King considers the ongoing downward trend in new-car registrations in France, Italy and Spain in November.

Despite government-backed incentives in France, Italy and Spain, new-car registrations suffered significantly again in November, according to data released by the respective automotive trade associations. As countries battle the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, restrictions and/or economic repercussions are impacting registration volumes, albeit inflicting far less damage than in March to May.

Following the lifting of lockdowns earlier in the year, the countries’ automotive markets had shown signs of recovery, but, all three suffered a continuation of the downward trend that commenced in September. The 18.7% contraction in Spain was a subtle improvement on the 21.0% year-on-year decline in October, but this was only because of the extra working day in November 2020 compared to November 2019.

New-car registrations, France, Italy and Spain, year-on-year percentage change, January to November 2020

Neuzulassungen von Pkw, Frankreich, Italien und Spanien, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in Prozent, Januar bis November 2020

Source: CCFA, ANFIA, ANFAC

New-car registrations were 27.0% lower in France in November 2020 than in the same month of 2019, even with one extra working day, according to the latest data released by the CCFA, the French automotive industry association. This is the largest year-on-year decline in a month since May, but compared to the dramatic falls in March and April, ‘the re-confinement had decidedly different consequences for the car market,’ commented the CCFA in a flash statement.

‘All the dealers were closed in France in November. They were only allowed to deliver cars that had already been ordered before the second lockdown. They have reopened since 28 November,’ clarified Yoann Taitz, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, France and Benelux. As dealers could still honour deliveries of orders, this explains why the downturn in France was far less significant in November than during the first lockdown.

In the first 11 months of 2020, new-car registrations in France were 26.9% lower than in the same period in 2019. With dealers open again, December will invariably be a healthier month for the automotive sector, but new-car registrations will still be about 25% lower in 2020 than in 2019.

Less lockdown, more crisis in Spain

In Spain, 75,708 new cars were registered during November, 18.7% fewer than in November 2019, according to ANFAC, the Spanish vehicle manufacturers’ association. ‘The red numbers remain in all segments and vehicle-sales channels in November 2020, and therefore in the cumulative figures. The second wave of the pandemic, and the associated serious economic and social crisis, is deepening the decline in sales in all markets,’ ANFAC commented.

The MOVES II and RENOVE incentive schemes were introduced in July and the new-car market saw a 1.1% increase that month. Since then, however, the year-on-year results have deteriorated, with the November fall only improving slightly on October because of the extra working day in the month.

Ana Azofra, valuations and insights manager at Autovista Group in Spain, explained that ‘the lockdown had many different scenarios, depending on the region and city, but was less restrictive than during the first wave and dealers – at least most of them – remain open. However, the RENOVE incentives for internal combustion engines (ICE) are exhausted and, moreover, the crisis is already affecting private consumption. The unemployment rate already increased in Spain and now stands at 16.5%, maintaining the negative trend.’

Measures to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 infections and the economic repercussions of the crisis are clearly weakening consumer demand. Furthermore, the calculation of the registration tax based on WLTP emissions figures, from January 2021, will further complicate the recovery.

‘Half of the vehicles sold in 2021 will see their taxation increased at the time of purchase due to the entry into operation of the European WLTP regulation. This average price increase of 5% will mean, in such a bad environment for vehicle sales, a worsening of the sector’s situation, making it even more difficult to get out of the crisis. We need the registration tax increase to be corrected before January 1 so that the [automotive] industry and the sector can be the driver of the Spanish economy that they have always been and will be,’ the three associations, ANFAC, Faconauto and Ganvam, declared in the ANFAC release.

Second consecutive monthly decline in Italy

In Italy, the year-on-year downturn in November reported by the industry association ANFIA was 8.3%, although the result would have been worse (down about 12%) had there not been the extra working day. This is the second consecutive month that the country is back in negative territory following the 9.5% growth in new-car registrations in September due to the new government incentives that came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). While the market still contracted in that month, demand improved but delivery times delayed many registrations until September.

As in Spain, there was not ‘a full lockdown in Italy like the one we experienced in March and car dealers were – and still are – open. However, depending on the zones, there is a ‘light’ lockdown, with different restrictions that put pressure on sales as a result. Furthermore, the incentive scheme for vehicles with the highest range of CO2 emissions has been exhausted,’ commented Marco Pasquetti, forecast and data specialist of Autovista Group in Italy.

‘Without a new intervention to support the car market, the new drop in sales leaves companies with the need to reactivate layoffs, which, in any case, will not be sufficient to stem the loss of turnover today, compared to 2019, at an average value of -25%. The data on the use of the redundancy fund in the period January to October 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, show an increase of 6,000%. These are striking data that induce reflection on the cost of failure to support the car,’ highlighted Adolfo De Stefani Cosentino, president of FEDERAUTO, in the ANFIA release.

The key to the recovery of new-car markets revolves around countries agreeing on budgets for 2021, and improving economic certainty and consumer confidence to boost spending. However, with COVID-19 not yet under control, and further lockdowns possible, the industry faces a difficult end to 2020 and a challenging 2021.

Schwacke Newcomer November 2020 – Neue Modelle im Forecast

Nützlich und schön – Nicht ohne meinen Stromer

Im November haben wir wieder Restwertprognosen für interessante Fahrzeugneuerscheinungen in unsere Datenbank aufgenommen:

• LEVC TX
• Mercedes-Benz S-Klasse
• Opel Mokka
• VW Caddy
• Škoda Enyaq & VW ID.4

LEVC TX – London calling

Der chinesische Geely-Konzern ist hierzulande bei automobilen Laien nicht vielen bekannt. Das ändert sich aber nach und nach. Die Herangehensweise, bekannte europäische Marken wie Volvo, Lotus oder den bankrotten britischen Taxibauer LTI aufzukaufen und neue Marken wie Polestar oder Lynk & Co zu etablieren, zeigt wie ambitioniert der Konzern aus der 9-Millionen-Metropole Hangzhou ist. Und spätestens seit dem medienwirksamen Ein- und Aufstieg zum größten Einzelaktionär der Daimler AG dürfte klar sein, dass die Zeiten von China-exklusiven Plagiaten aus dem Land des Lächelns vorbei sind. Längst kommt viel Hochtechnologie zum Einsatz und macht auch hier aus der etwas angestaubten Droschken-Schmiede „London Taxi International“ die „London Electric Vehicle Company“. Die charmante einzigartige Form bleibt beim TX erhalten, aber darunter werkt nun – nicht zuletzt wegen der Fahrverbote in Britanniens Hauptstadt – ein E-Motor mit Range-Extender. Auch das Lenkrad kommt aktuellen Volvo-Fahrern verdächtig bekannt vor. Seine Herkunft kann die als „Shuttle“ bezeichnete Version mit insgesamt sechs Passagiersitzen aber dennoch nicht verleugnen. Ein Kleintransporter auf gleicher Basis ist ebenfalls im Anmarsch. Lässt man das charmante, ein bisschen retro anmutende, ungewöhnliche Konzept mal außen vor, bleibt ein robustes aber eben auch sehr spezielles zweckorientiertes Fahrzeug mit modernem Antrieb und – sagen wir – robuste Interieur. Für die Passagiere der hinteren Sitzreihe ist bei hochgeklappten gegenläufigen Jump-Seats der Fußraum enorm und die Sitze über die gegenläufig öffnenden Türen sehr gut zu erreichen. Das ist vor allem dem Umstand geschuldet, dass hinter den Passagieren kein Gepäckabteil mehr stört, aber dann neben dem Fahrer Platz finden muss. So erschließt sich einem die höchst ungewöhnliche Ausstattungsoption „Sonnenblende für Kofferraum“. Hinter der Heckklappe verbirgt sich lediglich das Reserverad und minimaler Stauraum. Auch sonst setzt sich das ungewöhnliche Konzept in viel Hartplastik und Ausstattungsdetails fort. Beispielsweise sind einige Innenraumelemente und Griffe zwecks schnellen Findens in „Signalfalbe“ gelb, oder gar deren Beschriftung in Blindenschrift und es gibt eine Trennscheibe mit Gegensprechanlage. Für private Zwecke ist das Konzept weniger praktikabel. So wird die Zielgruppe sich neu wie gebraucht vor allem aus Anwendern mit häufigem Kurzstrecken-Personentransport speisen und nur in Ausnahmefällen absolute Fans im Alltag überzeugen. Taxler, Vereine, Fahrdienste oder Ride-Sharing-Anbieter kommen einem da spontan in den Sinn und honorieren sicher z.B. auch die werkseitig lieferbaren Rollstuhlhilfen. Größtes Manko dürfte für viele aber der Neupreis sein. Brutto mindestens etwas über 70.000€ sind eine Ansage. Zwar hat es der TX so gerade noch in die BAFA-Liste der förderfähigen Elektro-Fahrzeuge geschafft, aber das Niveau liegt gleichauf mit dem Einstiegspreis des deutlich größeren und anspruchsvolleren Mercedes EQV. Auch die relativ begrenzte Batteriegarantie von 5 Jahren statt der bei E-Fahrzeugen häufigen 8 ist weniger überzeugend. Unbezahlbar bleibt aber der Charme und
Werbewert des „Hinguckers“ und wird zusammen mit den vielen cleveren Details sicher manchen für sich einnehmen.

Mercedes-Benz S-Klasse – Krone der Schöpfung

Auch die neue Baureihe W223 der „Sonder-Klasse“ trifft das gleiche Schicksal wie seine 10 Vorgänger. Sie trägt einen beinahe dynastischen Namen und muss die daran geknüpften maximalen Erwartungen erfüllen. Auf den ersten Blick ist das voll gelungen, die Verarbeitungsqualität ist über jeden Zweifel erhaben und sogar der cw-Wert liegt auf einem beeindruckenden Bestwert-Niveau, gleichauf mit dem Porsche Taycan bei 0,22. Technisch gesehen bietet die S-Klasse traditionell – zumindest optional – alles, was bei vielen anderen erst in den kommenden Generationen und später in anderen Segmenten Einzug halten wird. Vieles davon – wie die ausgeklügelten Augmented Reality Funktionen – findet mittlerweile digital statt und der Luxus hat insgesamt seinen Preis. Die Basis-Version ist ca. 6% teurer geworden und rückt damit nahe an die sechsstellige Preisschallgrenze heran. Angemessen ausgestattet liegt sie in der Regel sowieso weit darüber. Wer drei Jahre warten kann, muss nur noch knapp die Hälfte zur Anschaffung davon einplanen, was einem Wertverlust im Gegenwert einer kleinen Eigentumswohnung entspricht. Man ist dann eben auch nicht mehr unter den normalerweise ca. 8.000 stolzen Erstbesitzern, die die Stuttgarter üblicherweise im ersten Jahr nach Modelleinführung in Deutschland beliefern. Bei aller Begeisterung für die exzellent ausgestatteten S 500 Vorführwagen, die man derzeit überall in den Medien sieht, darf man aber nicht vergessen, dass der Großteil der Käufer sich bei den „kleinen“ 286PS-Dieseln bedient und längst nicht die ganze 63-seitige Preisliste abarbeitet. Die S-Klasse ist dennoch wieder ein kleines Meisterstück geworden, das uns relativ selten in der Marktbeobachtung begegnen wird. Häufiger aber vermutlich immer noch als dem zukünftig vollelektrischen und futuristischen Bruder EQS. Also auch in diesem recht konservativen Segment ist viel Bewegung.

Opel Mokka – Kein X mehr für ein E vorgemacht

Seit die neue französische Mutter PSA Opel und Vauxhall übernommen hat, ist entwicklungs- und design-technisch eine Menge passiert in Rüsselsheim. Der Mokka – jetzt wieder ohne ‚X‘ – schlägt dabei ein neues Kapitel in puncto Optik auf. Waren sein(e) Vorgänger eher klassisch gezeichnete Kompakt-SUV ist der neue ein dynamisch moderner, extrovertierter Crossover, der vor allem mit der „Vizor“-Optik an der Frontpartie auffällt. Den älteren oder historisch interessierten Opel-Beobachtern kommt unweigerlich der 70er-Jahre Look des Manta A in den Sinn – und das muss kein Manko sein! Zukünftig ist das die Designsprache der Marke wie man am kürzlich renovierten Crossland – jetzt ebenfalls ohne ‚X‘ – erkennen kann. Kleiner Wermutstropfen: Mit Astra und Corsa/Insignia stehen damit nun 3 Exterieur-Generationen als Neuwagen in den Showrooms des Handels und sorgen insbesondere beim erst Ende 2021 zu ersetzenden Volumenmodell Astra für ein zunehmend angegrautes Äußeres. Der neue Mokka jedenfalls ist ein gut ausgestatteter frischer Beitrag zum B-SUV Segment. Viele Optionen gibt es aber nicht mehr. Das meiste wird über die Auswahl von Ausstattungslinien abgedeckt und kann durch Pakete ergänzt werden. Wie seine französischen Plattformbrüder ergibt sich hier nun auch die Möglichkeit, einen vollelektrischen Antriebsstrang anzubieten, dafür ist das Angebot von Dieselmotoren auf einen geschrumpft. Die PSA-Zugehörigkeit merkt man ohnehin besonders an den Motoren. Die Emissionswerte der Verbrenner sind mit den neuen Aggregaten auf einem völlig anderen Niveau als beim Vorgänger. Allerdings ist der steuerliche Vorteil hierzulande angesichts der im europäischen Umfeld sehr zurückhaltenden CO2-Besteuerung dadurch nicht unbedingt üppig. Der geringere Verbrauch ist da schon eher ein Argument. Für eine profitable Gebrauchtwagenvermarktung sind die Voraussetzungen also gut, aber die Realität von Handel und Käufererwartungen muss dem erst noch Rechnung tragen. Der Vorgänger mit zuletzt überdurchschnittlichem Anteil an günstigen Handels- und Vermietzulassungen sollte dabei nicht als Orientierung dienen.

VW Caddy – Vielseitigkeitsprüfung

Der Caddy hat entwicklungstechnisch eine wechselvolle Geschichte hinter sich. Gestartet im Gewand eines Golf I Pickup, über ein Rebranding von Seat Inca und Škoda Pick-up zeigt er seit 2003 sein zwischenzeitlich zweimal facegeliftetes heutiges Äußeres basierend auf dem damaligen Touran. Nun folgt die offiziell fünfte Generation, zeitgemäß auf MQB-Plattform und dezent weiterentwickelter Optik. Das Segment der sogenannten Hochdachkombis kommt in der Regel sowohl in PKW-artiger Manier daher, als auch als leichte Nutzfahrzeugvariante verglast der verblecht. So auch beim Caddy. Der robustere Ursprung ließ sich in der Vergangenheit vor allem Innen oft nur schlecht kaschieren, was übrigens auch für die Wettbewerber gilt. Aber der Vorteil war die durch lange Produktionszyklen und dem bereits erwähnten Rebranding hohe Profitabilität. Der Caddy musste sich da bislang immer alleine behaupten, ganz im Gegensatz zu der PSA-Toyota-Kooperation und der Renault-Mercedes Genspende. Das wird sich aber nun ändern. Durch die Nutzfahrzeugkooperation mit Ford wird der neue Caddy in den nächsten Jahren als Transit/Tourneo Connect wiedergeboren. Innen ist er aber ganz VW. Der Hannoveraner erbt eine ganze Reihe von vertrauten PKW-Teilen aus dem Konzernregal. Dennoch scheinen die Linien alle etwas grober gezeichnet und die Materialien gefühlt etwas abwaschbarer und kratzempfindlicher als im Golf oder Touran. Der klassischen Zielgruppe dürfte das entgegenkommen, geht es doch bei den eher praktisch orientierten Kunden um Nutzwert und Preis-Leistung. Momentan fehlen dabei noch die Langversionen und Benzinmotoren, die vor allem bei den PKW-Kunden zwischen 30 und 40% der Zulassungen ausmachen. Der Caddy ist aber eher ein Dauerläufer, als ein Sprinter und daher, nicht zuletzt wegen seines soliden Rufes, vor allem in späteren Jahren gut wiederzuvermarkten.

Škoda Enyaq & VW ID.4 – Ungleiche Brüder

Der VW-Konzern hat seine elektrischen Modelleinführungen sehr gezielt und mit Bedacht orchestriert. Starteten die Premiummarken Audi und Porsche in den entsprechenden klientelgerechten Segmenten, folgte die Volumenmarke VW mit einem „Golf“ namens ID.3. Jetzt darf Škoda mit einem rationalen, aber gutaussehenden SUV-Modell punkten. Um den aktuellen Drive in der europäischen E-Zulassungsentwicklung zu nutzen, nimmt der Enyaq seinen VW Bruder ID.4 mit leichter Verzögerung mit auf den Weg. Und der Vollständigkeit halber komplettiert den Elektro-Erstaufschlag der PKW-Konzernmarken Seat oder eigentlich Cupra mit einem emotionalen und dynamischen ID.3 Geschwister namens El-Born. Auf den beiden aktuellen Newcomern liegt dabei besonderes Augenmerk, da mengenmäßig bei beiden Marken diese Bauform längst dominiert. Mit dem Radstand eines Tiguan Allspace oder Kodiaq fallen die MEB-Karossen vor allem auf der Rückbank entsprechend üppig aus. Ungewöhnlich für Nicht-Allradler ist bei beiden allerdings der bauartbedingte Heckantrieb. Aus dem macht dann ein zusätzlicher E-Motor an der Vorderachse optional einen „Geländewagen“. Den Unterschied von Tscheche und Zwickauer macht aber nicht nur die Produktionsstätte aus, sondern vor allem Preis und Optik. Dies entspricht gewissermaßen der von Konzernchef Diess angemahnten stärkeren Markendifferenzierung. Enyaq ist das geringfügig konventionellere, aber besser grundausgestattete Modell, während der ID etwas mehr Innovation und Souveränität bei höherem Preis anbietet. Das gilt innen wie außen. Während Škoda sich drinnen am neuen Octavia orientiert, bleibt der ID.4 vom Layout her seinem kleinen Bruder 3 verbunden. Ein deutliches Plus für den üppigen Aufpreis stellt aber die Materialqualität dar, die viele beim ID-Erstling schmerzlich vermissten. Interessant wird es überdies wenn die RS bzw. GTX Versionen mit voraussichtlich über 300PS auf den Markt kommen. Dann erhält Teslas Model Y nicht mehr nur aus der Premium-Welt Gegenwind.

Schwacke Insights November 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Viele Werte liegen derzeit buchstäblich im grünen Bereich für die 3jährigen Gebrauchten. Standzeiten sind deutlich rückläufig, aktuelle Marktpreise sind zwar spürbar unter Vorjahr, stabilisieren sich aber. Grund hierfür dürfte das für Verkäufer noch sehr vorteilhafte Verhältnis von Angebot und Nachfrage sein. Die Saldi der Neuzugänge und Verkäufe deuten aber auf eine Eintrübung der weiteren Entwicklung hin. Ebenfalls etwas pessimistischer die Situation und der Ausblick der elektrifizierten Antriebe. Zwar ist die Lage nach einem enttäuschenden Wertverlauf der vergangenen 1-2 Jahre aktuell solide. Langfristig treffen aber rapide wachsende Mengen auf einen zögerlich wachsenden und weniger stark geförderten Bedarf. Bei den Schnelldrehern dominieren Cabrios, die nun azyklisch willige Abnehmer finden. Der erste Plug-In Hybrid Audi A3 e-tron hat nun den Sprung in die Top 5 geschafft!

 

Insights November 2020 Preview

Podcast: Used cars and ICE bans as manufacturers get smart

The Autovista Group Daily Brief team discusses the latest used-car figures from around Europe and the implications of internal combustion engine bans, as manufacturers establish smart-city projects to develop sustainable infrastructures…

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/used-cars-and-ice-bans-as-manufacturers-get-smart

You can listen and subscribe to receive podcasts direct to your mobile device, or browse through previous episodes, on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts and search for Autovista Group Podcast on Amazon Music.

Launch Report: Mazda MX-30

The new Mazda MX-30 has an innovative crossover style that is between a compact SUV and a coupe, with design elements such as rear-hinged doors, sharp-edged wheel arches, rear lights inspired by the MX-5 roadster, and a swooping roofline.

The modern, high-quality interior features a minimalist and well-finished dashboard, and standard equipment is comprehensive, including LED headlamps, satnav, and a head-up display. With a complete list of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), safety is a strength of the MX-30, which has recently been awarded five stars by Euro NCAP.

The MX-30 charges to full battery capacity in good time, but the range of about 200km (WLTP) is relatively low, even compared to other models that are not fully charged. However, the purpose of the MX-30 is to present an eco-friendly vehicle, and the battery was selected as it has a lower impact on the environment in terms of CO2 emissions during production, as well as energy consumption. There are currently no versions with extended battery capacity, but space in the engine compartment supports rumours of a range-extender variant with an additional rotary-style engine.

List prices are typically slightly lower than for C-SUV rivals but higher than for electric hatchback models. In Germany, the €9,000 incentive for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) gives an adjusted retail price from about €23,000, which is even on a par with the petrol-powered Mazda CX-30 C-SUV.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Mazda MX-30 in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.

We present new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Mazda MX-30 Launch Report

Used-car transactions grow in France and Germany in October

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King considers the latest used-car market volumes published by the respective associations in the major European markets.

The volume of used-car transactions grew year-on-year in October 2020 in France and Germany. Used-car sales increased by 11.4% and 2.6% year-on-year respectively in France and Germany in the month, and Spain and Italy only suffered modest respective declines of 1.6% and 5.7%. Through to October, the used-car markets of France and Germany had single-digit declines, of 4.1% and 3.5% respectively, whereas there were double-digit contractions in the used-car markets of Italy and Spain.

Used-car transactions, year-on-year % change, October and year-to-date

Gebrauchtwagen-Transaktionen, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Oktober und seit Jahresbeginn

Sources: Sources: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, GANVAM/IEA

In the UK, used-car sales data are not yet available for October, but the country’s used-car market contracted by 17.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2020. The volume of used-car transactions declined in all the four tracked major continental European markets too, but the downturns were significantly less dramatic than the contractions in new-car registrations.

Used-car transactions and new-car registrations, year-on-year % change, Q1-Q3

Gebrauchtwagen-Transaktionen und Neuzulassungen, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Q1-Q3

Sources: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, ANFAC, GANVAM/IEA, SMMT

The used-car market in the UK contracted by 17.5% in the first three quarters of 2020, according to the latest figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) on 10 November. However, this is only about half the downturn in new-car registrations in the country in the same period.

Following a comparatively modest decline of 8.3% in the first quarter of 2020, as the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown from mid-March negated growth in January and February, there was a 48.9% slump in the second quarter as dealer forecourts remained closed for most of this period.

UK busiest quarter since 2016

The used-car market rebounded to increase by 4.4% in Q3 as dealers reopened and lockdown measures were relaxed. ‘During the busiest quarter since the end of 2016, some 2,168,599 transactions took place between July and September, 92,217 more than the same period in 2019, with September recording the largest growth, up 6.3%,’ the SMMT reports.

However, as England has returned to a state of lockdown and the rest of the UK wrestles with stark rises in COVID-19 cases, the final quarter of 2020 will be challenging.

‘It is encouraging to see used-car sales returned to growth but, as the pandemic continues and outlets in many areas are being made to close again, the short-term outlook is less positive. Given these premises are often proven to be COVID-secure, we need them to reopen quickly to protect vital jobs and ensure no further delay to the fleet renewal necessary to deliver environmental improvements,’ commented Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.

Continental contractions

There have been similar contractions of the used-car markets in Spain and Italy. The latter has suffered the most, with 17.3% fewer changes of ownership in the first 10 months of 2020 than a year earlier, according to the latest data published by ANFIA. Nevertheless, this compares to a 30.9% contraction of the new-car market and is a significant improvement on the 31.6% decline in used-car transactions in the first half of 2020. Many buyers of both new and used cars decided to hold off until government incentives came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). This new scheme came on top of the Ecobonus scheme, which incentivises cars producing less than 20g of CO2/km.

Used-car sales fell 14.2% year-on-year in Spain in the first 10 months of 2020, according to the Spanish car dealers’ association GANVAM. This compares to a 36.8% decline in new-car registrations. As in Italy, the used-car market has recovered well, given that there were 31.7% fewer used-car transactions in the first half of 2020 than a year earlier.

However, the market turned negative in October after five months of growth. ‘This change in trend is marked, to a large extent, by the impact that the coronavirus crisis is having on operations with used cars from rental fleets, known as buybacks (since after about six months the brand has an agreement to buy back that fleet to sell it on the second-hand market). As a consequence of the fall in tourism, the car-rental companies are not renewing their fleets. In fact, registrations in this channel accumulated a drop of 60% until October and, therefore, there is a large vacuum in the supply of pre-owned used vehicles, which translates into a 34% drop in sales of second-hand models aged less than a year,’ GANVAM reports.

In France, industry association CCFA reports a modest 4.1% decline in used-car sales in the first 10 months of 2020. As elsewhere, this is a significantly better performance than the 26.9% fall in new-car registrations.

However, Germany’s used-car market has weathered the COVID-19 storm better than all the other major European countries. There were only 3.5% fewer changes of ownership in the first 10 months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, according to the industry association KBA. New-car registrations have also suffered less than in the other major markets, but were still down 23.4% in the year-to-date, therefore being outperformed by used-car demand here too.

Residual-value recovery

As Europe’s used-car markets have proven more resilient than new-car markets throughout 2020, the impact on residual values (RVs) has been predominantly positive. Autovista Group’s COVID-19 tracker, which tracks 12 European markets, shows that the index of RVs, compared to early February, has returned to pre-crisis levels in all countries except Portugal and Finland. The measurements began in February, with an index value of 100.

Residual-value index of used cars, 2 February to 15 November

Restwertindex für Gebrauchtwagen, 2. Februar bis 15. November

Source: Autovista Group, Residual Value Intelligence, COVID-19 tracker

However, as Europe battles a second wave of COVID-19, new lockdowns, growing stock volumes, incentives for new cars, and rising unemployment, Autovista Group expects a downward trend for the end of the year, especially for younger cars.

Further details on the Autovista Group outlook for residual values are published in the November update of the Autovista Group whitepaper; How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets?

EU new-car registrations declined 7.8% in October

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King explores the latest figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) as second-wave lockdowns bring more downturns.

New-car registrations in the EU declined 7.8% year-on-year in October.  Volumes fell from 1,034,669 units to 953,615. This marks a return to the market contractions suffered every month in 2020, except for the modest growth in September. The decline is an improvement on the dramatic double-digit declines suffered in March to June, and again in August, but does not bode well as the region contends with a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and lockdowns.

EU new-car registrations, year-on-year % change, January to October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD)

EU-Neuzulassungen, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Januar bis Oktober 2020 und seit Jahresbeginn (YTD)

Source: ACEA

All EU new-car markets contracted last month – apart from Ireland and Romania, which enjoyed year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 17.6% respectively. This renewed EU-wide downturn was to be expected given the year-on-year declines already reported in France, Italy, Spain, and even Germany in October.

Single-digit declines were reported in France, Germany and Italy, although the decline in Italy was just 0.2% and the result would have been positive (up by about 4%) had there not been one less working day. This follows the 9.5% growth in new-car registrations in September, due to the new government incentives that came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). While the market still contracted in that month, demand improved but delivery times delayed many registrations until September and October.

On a less positive note, there was a double-digit decline of new-car registrations in Spain in October. The MOVES II and RENOVE schemes were introduced in July, and the new-car market saw a 1.1% increase in the month. Since then, however, there have been respective monthly declines of 10.1% and 13.5% in August and September, and now 21.0% in October. It is therefore clear that weak underlying consumer demand is the problem in the country. Measures to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 infections, and the calculation of the registration tax based on WLTP emissions figures from January 2021, are further complicating the recovery.

New-car registrations, year-on-year % change, October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD) 2020

Pkw-Neuzulassungen, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Oktober 2020 und seit Jahresbeginn (YTD) 2020

Source: ACEA

In the smaller EU member states, year-on-year contractions of more than 20% were reported in seven markets, including Finland, Slovakia and Slovenia. However, some markets were far more resilient, with downturns of less than 5% reported in Austria and Hungary.

Lockdown negativity replaces pent-up positivity

In the first 10 months of 2020, registrations of new cars in the EU fell by 26.8%. Even the market downturn in October continued the improvement in the year-to-date contractions, which bottomed out at 41.5% in the first five months of the year. The greatest loss among the major EU markets was in Spain, which has contracted by 36.8% in the year-to-date, ahead of only Croatia (down 43.5%) and Portugal (down 37.1%).

As the positive contribution of pent-up demand is ultimately exhausted, the second wave of COVID-19 infections, the severity, duration and geographic spread of lockdowns, and the economic fallout of COVID-19, will define how new-car markets perform in the remainder of 2020 and beyond. The key to recovery revolves around countries agreeing budgets for 2021, and improving economic certainty and consumer confidence to boost spending. The allocation of aid resources provided by the European Recovery Fund, agreed on 21 July, will also play a pivotal role in shaping the forward outlook for Europe’s new-car markets.

Manufacturer performance

Among the leading European carmakers, the BWW Group, Ford, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Nissan all registered more than 10% fewer new cars in the EU in October 2020 than in October 2019. Mazda suffered the greatest loss, with EU registrations down 38.0% year-on-year.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and the Renault Group, however, managed to register 3.9% and 0.2% more cars respectively in the EU than in October 2019. All other major manufacturers suffered single-digit declines of between 6.2% (Honda) and 9.7% (Jaguar Land Rover) in the month.

Across Europe, manufacturers with a strong electric-vehicle portfolio are expected to perform better than those without as electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) consumers are less likely to be tempted by used cars instead of new. This is because they tend to be less price-sensitive buyers, but there is also limited availability of the latest electric models on the used-car market. In the year-to-date, Toyota is the best-performing manufacturer in the EU, albeit with registrations down 16.9%, supporting this hypothesis.

In a new video, Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry talks through the latest registration figures in the big four EU markets and the UK.

November – Latest whitepaper update: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets?

The latest edition of Autovista Group’s whitepaper: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets? considers the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections across Europe. Out of the 18 markets covered, 10 have adopted a more negative view of overall economic scenario outcomes.

The latest update to the Autovista Group whitepaper covers such topics as:

  • Three-speed RVs: Europe’s used-car prices recover to pre-crisis levels
  • A golden age for used-car markets?
  • The double-edged sword of EV government incentives?
  • Coronavirus scenarios – how swiftly will economies recover?

Residual-value (RV) outlooks have changed. 10 of the countries tracked have now changed to a more favourable position for RVs in 2020 as the landscape for the year becomes clearer. Eight countries have also confirmed their RV outlooks for 2021 and 2022.

However, RVs are also under threat from government-backed incentive schemes, designed to help the automotive industry following extensive lockdowns earlier this year. Such grants favour the purchase of new vehicles, and Autovista Group has analysed the impact on the used-car market in different regions, focusing on internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric-vehicle (EV) models. The latter looks to be under more pressure, especially in two markets.

The whitepaper shows that a ‘two-speed’ market recovery continues in Europe. This year has seen most used-car markets fare particularly well, even above pre-COVID levels. However, this is largely driven by a run for cheaper, older vehicles, as many come to rely less on public transport through fear of contracting COVID-19. Young used cars, including those coming off-lease or released by rental firms, do not see such a level of recovery and are under pressure in a number of markets.

Yet some markets, such as in Southern Europe, will not be at pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. There are already signs of the need for some downward market correction before the end of this year.

You can find more information about how different markets are shaping up, and the various economic scenarios across the region, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper – ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.

Explaining October’s registration figures

In October, none of the big five European markets achieved a positive increase in registrations. With markets entering various states of lockdown to ease a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in November, the picture for the rest of 2020 could become murkier still. Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry guides you through the figures in the latest registrations round up.

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel. There you will find videos on a range of subjects including autonomous vehicles, new-car registrations, safety systems, and electrification.

Volvo recalls 120,000 cars globally after airbag defect

Volvo Cars is undertaking a global recall of its S60 and S80 models built between 2001 and 2003 due to an airbag defect, Autovista Group has learned.

‘The recall is global and in total around 120,000 cars will be recalled from markets with hot and humid conditions,’ the carmaker confirmed to Autovista Group’s Daily Brief. ‘All affected owners will be contacted directly by Volvo.’

The move looks to tackle an airbag defect which has already been linked to one fatality in the US. Documents published by the country’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), describe the potential for the driver side airbag inflator to rupture, causing fragments to be expelled on deployment.

This process has already begun, with the manufacturer reaching out to owners of the S60 and S80 models. According to NHTSA documents, Volvo plans to replace the faulty unit with modern propellant and inflator.

‘After being notified by Volvo in August 2019 of a field incident where it appeared that a specific type of airbag inflator ruptured upon deployment, ZF promptly informed the NHTSA and, together with Volvo, began investigating the incident,’ the airbag provider told the Daily Brief. ‘As a company committed to safety, ZF will continue to work closely with NHTSA and Volvo on this issue.’

Hot and humid conditions

The report lays out that when the faulty airbag’s propellant tablets are subjected to increased moisture levels and frequent high-inflator temperatures, the tablets can start to decay and form dust particles. Also, when exposed to increased temperatures, moisture leaves the tablet and when cooled down is absorbed and accumulated on its surface.

This localisation of moisture leads to ‘volumetric changes of the tablet’s surface,’ creating dust. This dust increases burn surface area and burn rate. This can result in higher combustion chamber pressure and the risk of inflator rupture.

‘In the event of a crash were the driver airbag is activated, fragments of the inflator inside the airbag may, in certain cases, project out and in worst case strike you, potentially resulting in serious injury or death,’ the US recall notice states.

The carmaker and the NHTSA have had meetings about the airbag fault since August 2019.

The agency confirmed that one person in the US died when a ZF/TRW FG2 twin driver airbag inflator containing the propellant 5AT-148N exploded. The government body said this was the only known fatality for this type of inflator globally.

Takata troubles

The development is reminiscent of the ongoing global recall due to an airbag issue by Takata. According to the NHTSA, it affected tens of millions of vehicles, from 19 different automakers. These airbags were recalled because they could explode when deployed, causing serious injury or even death.

UK sees registrations drop as it enters second lockdown

The UK has seen its weakest October registrations performance for nine years, as a ‘firebreak’ lockdown in Wales hindered sales of new vehicles and contributed to a 1.6% drop in the market.

The latest data, provided by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), shows that 140,945 units were registered last month, making it the weakest October since 2011 and 10.1% lower than the average recorded over the last decade, according to the industry body.

The arrival of new models and ongoing financial incentives around battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) helped initially to sustain UK demand in the month, but the introduction of a lockdown in Wales on 23 October contributed to the nation recording 25.5% fewer registrations by the end of the month, which accounted for more than half of the overall UK decline.

Grafik: Neuwagen-Anmeldungen Oktober 2020 SMMT

Source: SMMT

Trouble ahead

Year-to-date, the market is down by 31%, according to the SMMT, with 620,921 fewer vehicles on the road. However, the UK is now in a month-long lockdown period that will see all but essential services closed – including car dealership showrooms. This means that only registrations made up until 5 November, when the lockdown started, will count in the November figures, and the SMMT’s expectation is in line with Autovista Group’s predictions that this month will see 100,000 fewer vehicles registered in the country as a result.

‘When showrooms shut, demand drops, so there is a real danger that with England today entering a second lockdown, both dealers and manufacturers could face temporary closure,’ comments SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes. ‘What is not in doubt, however, is that the entire industry now faces an even tougher end to the year as businesses desperately try to manage resources, stock, production and cashflow in the penultimate month before the inevitable upheaval of Brexit. Keeping showrooms open – some of the most COVID-secure retail environments around – would help cushion the blow but, more than ever, we need a tariff-free deal with the EU to provide some much-needed respite for an industry that is resilient but massively challenged.”

UK new-car registrations, January 2018 to December 2020 (forecast from November 2020)

Pkw-Neuzulassungen in Großbritannien, Januar 2018 bis Dezember 2020 (Prognose ab November 2020)

Source: SMMT and Autovista Group

‘While the continuation of click & collect and delivery services is welcome, and should help prevent a return to the sales wipe-out experienced in the spring, it cannot offset the loss of custom from the closure of showrooms themselves, given the unique nature of the car purchase process,’ the SMMT said.

Brexit uncertainty also continues to complicate matters. Tariffs of 10% could be added to imports and exports in the event of no free-trade agreement between the UK and European Union. Carmakers are already highlighting their inability to absorb this tariff, meaning they could tag it onto the price of new cars imported into the country.

With dealerships closed in November, this only leaves one month for consumers and businesses to update their vehicles before factoring in any potential cost increase. This may mean that pent-up demand will aid the market in December. However, as this is traditionally a poor-trading month for the automotive industry, with consumer spending concentrated elsewhere, and with an extension to the UK government’s furlough scheme meaning many consumers are economically worse off during lockdowns, pent-up demand is unlikely to drive the market back to pre-lockdown levels.

UK forecast to fall 32%

To this end, Autovista Group is forecasting a 32% drop in registrations in the UK for 2020. The Autovista Group forecast, first published in June, was a downgrade from the 23% decline forecast in May and 20% forecast in April. In March, before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic took hold, the expectation was that the UK market would only experience a 3% fall in 2020.

The UK’s market continues to be driven by alternatively-fuelled vehicle sales, as petrol and diesel models register declines. In October, petrol fell 21.3%, while diesel dropped by 38.4%.

However, BEVs saw a 195.2% increase in registrations, albeit on smaller figures, with 9,335 units hitting the road in October. Year-to-date, BEVs are up 168.7% as new models and improving infrastructure helped 75,946 vehicles roll out of showrooms. Following a decline due to the abolishing of government grants, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are also making a comeback. In October, 7,775 units were registered, representing growth of 148.7%, while year-to-date, PHEVs are up 91.5%.