Fuel Type: Batterieelektrisch (BEV)

German new-car registrations down 19% in 2020

Germany saw the registration of 2.9 million new cars in 2020, down 19.1% on 2019. The latest figures from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) show that 62.8% of these units were registered for commercial purposes, down 22.4%, while 37.1% of the market share was private, down 13%.

Bidding farewell to a year of unprecedented challenges, the German market was able to end 2020 on a marginally positive note. A total of 311,394 passenger cars were sold in December last year, up 9.9% on the same period from 2019. Accompanied by an 8.4% rise in September, the German new-car market only saw two months of registration growth in 2020. These upticks in the second half of last year represent a move away from the 61% plunge in April and 49.5% drop in May.

New-car registrations, Germany, y-o-y % change, January to December 2020

Pkw-Neuzulassungen, Deutschland, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Januar bis Dezember 2020
Data: KBA


While Germany appears to be leading the way with a recovering automotive market, difficulties continue across Europe as member states are battered by fresh pandemic waves. In December last year, French new-car registrations dropped by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2019. Italy felt a greater decline at 14.9%, while Spain saw just 13 fewer registered units than December 2019. However, Germany does not appear to be out of the woods yet.

Climbing infection rates have triggered an extension of the country’s lockdown measures until the end of January. This makes a positive start to this year seem even less likely as dealerships must remain closed, except for the service departments. While Autovista Group’s Schwacke expects to see a recovery to just under 3.1 million new-car registrations in 2021, it predicts figures will be below those in previous years, and significantly below 2019’s peak.

New-car registrations, EU4, y-o-y % change, January to December 2020

Pkw-Neuzulassungen, EU4, Veränderung in % gegenüber dem Vorjahr, Januar bis Dezember 2020

Data: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, ANFAC

Drives and segments

With the largest share of last year’s market at 46.7%, a total of 1,361,723 petrol-powered cars were registered, down 36.3% on 2019. Meanwhile, 819,896 diesel-driven cars took a 28.1% share, down 28.9% on the previous year.

Alternative drives, consisting of hybrids, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel-cell and gas claimed approximately a quarter of all new-car registrations in Germany last year. Hybrids achieved a share of 18.1%, up 120.6% on the previous period with 527,864 registrations, including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) with 200,469 units, up 342.1% and with a market share of 6.9%. Electric cars represented 6.7% of the market, up 206.8% to 194,163 units. A total of 7,159 gas-powered cars were registered in 2020, down 6.1% on 2019, and LPG-driven cars saw a drop of 9.8%, to 6,543 units. CO2 emissions from cars fell by 11.0% last year, on average to 139.8g/km from 157.0g/km in the previous reporting period.

Over half of all registrations were accounted for by SUVs (21.3%), compact cars (20.5%) or small cars (15.1%). With 2.6% of the market, motorhomes saw the most significant increase, up 41.4%.

Brand performance

All German brands showed a decline last year. Smart took the hardest fall at 67.3%, followed by Opel, which dropped by 32.3%, then Ford down 30.6%. VW fell by 21.3% on the previous reporting year, Audi slumped by 19.9%, Porsche was down by 16.3%, BMW dropped by 13.7%. Negative results were also reported by Mini (down 11.7%) and Mercedes (down 10.6%). With a share of 18%, VW held the largest share of the new-car market in 2020.

For imported brands, both Tesla (up 55.9%) and Fiat (up 0.2%) reported positive results for 2020. Meanwhile, declines were recorded by Suzuki (down 44.8%), Ssangyoung (down 40.2%), Mazda (down 38.1%) and Dacia (down 36.6%). Skoda led the imported brands with a market share of 6.2%, followed by Renault with 4.3%.

Alternative drives made up a quarter of German registrations in 2020

Alternative drives, consisting of hybrid, fuel-cell, gas, hydrogen, and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), claimed approximately a quarter of all new-car registrations in Germany in 2020. This result came in a year defined by COVID-19, when registrations in the country declined by roughly 20%.

The country’s government sought to use the pandemic as a springboard for a greener economy, with a greater emphasis on electromobility. In November last year, it committed a €4 billion stimulus package to the automotive sector, with funds being channelled into the adaptation of production lines and incentivising the purchase of electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs).

An electric transformation

With the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) reporting the number of newly-registered BEVs increased by 206% in 2020, compared with 2019, the German automotive market does look to be on track for an electric transformation. Some 13.5% of all newly-registered passenger cars in the country now sport an electrified drivetrain, from BEVs to plug-in electric hybrids (PHEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). The federal states of Schleswig-Holstein, Berlin and Baden-Württemberg played host to a high share of these new EV registrations last year, at over 16%.

‘E-mobility is now at the heart of mobile society. Positive user experiences, reliable technologies and a growing range of products facilitate the switch to e-mobility. With a sustained trend for registrations of vehicles with electric powertrains, around 22% in the last quarter of 2020, the government target of seven to 10 million electric vehicles registered in Germany by the year 2030 can be achieved,’ said KBA President Damm.

Segments and brands

The small-car segment was the strongest, accounting for 29.9% of registrations of new BEVs in 2020. Meanwhile, SUVs made up just under a fifth of the registration volume of new BEVs. The compact segment also reached a high share of this type, with 19.6%.

For BEVs, private registrations made up almost half of all registrations, at 48.8%. For all alternative powertrains, two-thirds were commercial (63.5%), and one third (35.4%) were private. Overall, some 63% of all new-car registrations, including petrol and diesel, were registered for commercial use in 2020. 

A total of 394,940 new EVs were registered last year. VW passenger cars claimed the highest market share at 17.4%, up 608.6% compared with 2019. Meanwhile, Mercedes enjoyed a 14.9% share, up 499.8%, and Audi took 9%, up 607.9%. A total of 194,163 new BEVs were registered in the country in 2020. The VW brand claimed a 23.8% share of this volume, representing a 463.3% increase on the previous year. Renault then followed with a share of 16.2%, up 233.8%, and Tesla captured 8.6%, up 55.9%.

VW achieved the largest share of the EV parc, with 16%, pulling ahead of BMW at 12.3%, and Mercedes at 12.1%. For BEVs, VW claimed a 20.2% share, this time ahead of Renault at 18.1%, Smart at 11.6% and Tesla at 11.1%.

Around 70% of the battery-electric car parc was allocated to the small-car (33%), compact (19.6%) and mini (17.3%) segments. The stock of battery-electric passenger cars in the SUV segment, which has a high number of registrations, reached a share of 14.4%.

While the KBA has yet to confirm the total number of new-car registrations in 2020, at the end of last year Autovista Group’s Schwacke projected a recovery to just under 3.1 million in 2021. This would follow an expected registration volume of 2.9 million new cars in Germany in 2020.

Automotive relief at Brexit deal

Following a year of unprecedented difficulties, the European Union and the UK reached an agreement on Christmas Eve for a Brexit deal.

‘It was a long and winding road. But we have got a good deal to show for it,’ said European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. ‘It is fair and balanced. And it is the right and responsible thing to do for both sides.’

Confirming the long-awaited agreement, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson estimated the free-trade deal to be worth approximately £660 billion (€735 billion). He described it as a ‘comprehensive Canada-style free-trade deal,’ which means UK goods can be sold without tariffs and quotas in the EU.

As the UK now no longer follows the EU’s rules on production standards, checks on goods have been introduced. This, in turn, creates more paperwork and red tape, which may result in delays if goods arrive at ports unprepared. However, the deal does include a 12-month grace period on some elements of the ‘rules of origin’ declarations, which require exporters to certify goods qualify as locally sourced, allowing them to avoid tariffs. Businesses will have a year to obtain supporting documents form third-party suppliers, giving some companies more time to adapt.

But how has this last minute, 1,246-page Christmas present been received by the automotive sector?

The automotive reaction

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) welcomed the deal and the relief it brought as the sector avoids the harsh consequences of a no-deal Brexit. ACEA director-general Eric-Mark Huitema explained that no other industry is more closely integrated than the European automotive sector, which depends upon complex supply chains that stretch across the region.

‘The impact of a no-deal Brexit on the EU auto industry would have been simply devastating, so we are first and foremost extremely relieved that an agreement was reached before the transition period expired,’ Huitema said. ‘Nonetheless, major challenges still lie ahead, as trade in goods will be heavily impacted by barriers to trade in the form of new customs procedures that will be introduced on 1 January 2021.’

ACEA pointed out that compared to when the UK was aligned with the EU, the deal struck by negotiators has introduced much more red tape and regulatory burden. According to ACEA, before Brexit, almost 3 million vehicles worth €54 billion were traded annually between the EU and the UK, and cross-Channel trade in automotive parts accounted for nearly €14 billion.

Phase-in period

In the UK, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) also welcomed news of the agreement as a platform for a future relationship between the EU and UK. It also identified the need for a ‘phase-in period,’ which it stated would be critical to help business on both sides adapt.

‘The tariff-free, quota-free trade industry has called for has been secured in principle. However, the six-year phase-in period and special provisions for electrified vehicles and batteries now make it imperative that the UK secures at pace investment in battery gigafactories and electrified supply chains to create the world-leading battery production infrastructure to maintain our international competitiveness,’ said Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.

The SMMT went on to call for the immediate ratification and implementation of the agreement. Members of Parliament in the UK did go on to vote overwhelmingly to back the deal, with the House of Lords also passing the bill off for Royal Assent.

The EU has also identified the need to get the agreement ratified as a matter of ‘special urgency,’ even though it was unable to do so before the UK left the single market. Given the late hour, the Commission proposed to apply the details on a provisional basis for a limited time period until 28 February 2021. The deal was also given unanimous backing by ambassadors from the 27 nations, with written approval from member states.

Now the UK can look to future partnerships with countries like Turkey, with which it recently signed a deal for preferential trading terms. New relationships like these will be essential as the country’s partnership with the EU trading bloc becomes more complex, and it navigates the terms of the deal.

‘Further ahead, we must pursue the wider trade opportunities that Brexit is supposed to deliver while accelerating the UK’s transition to electrified-vehicle manufacturing. With the deal in place, government must double down on its commitment to a green industrial revolution, create an investment climate that delivers battery-gigafactory capacity in the UK, supports supply-chain transition and maintains free-flowing trade – all essential to the UK Automotive sector’s future success,’ said Hawes.

Launch Report: Citroën C4 – a crossover pioneer

With the new C4, Citroën has mixed a crossover with a hatchback to deliver a C-segment car with DNA from both camps. It has more of a hatchback silhouette than an SUV, but it still offers high ground clearance and an elevated seating position, as well as an airy internal feel due to the raised roofline.

The new Citroën is equipped with progressive hydraulic shock absorbers, comfortable seats, 18-inch wheels, a digital cockpit, and offers good space between the two seat rows. It also has more than 20 advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), a head-up display and a 10-inch central console. Citroën has removed the need to use the touchscreen to access the climate controls, with a row of controls in the lower central dashboard.

The C4 is available with petrol and diesel engines, as well as a fully-electric version, the e-C4, on PSA’s modular, ‘multi-energy’ CMP platform. It is one of the hatchback/crossover pioneers in the C-segment and is offered at a reasonable price point, especially with the good level of equipment. However, some manufacturers are launching similar offerings in the coming months, increasing competition for the model.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Citroën C4 in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Launch Report Citroën C4

Mercedes-Benz goes on the electric offensive

Mercedes-Benz has announced where its upcoming battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will be produced, as it goes on an electric offensive. Built in its factories in Germany, the US, and China, these new BEVs will be assembled alongside vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICE).

Mercedes-Benz revealed a total of eight EQ BEVs will be in production across seven of its locations by 2022. Spanning three continents, this production map will be essential for the carmaker to achieve its goal of electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) making up half of its sales by 2030. The electrification of the manufacturer’s entire product range is a key component of the ‘Ambition 2039’ strategy and a prerequisite on the way to CO2 neutrality.

‘With its ‘Electric First’ strategy, Mercedes-Benz is consistently on the path to CO2 neutrality and is investing heavily in transformation,’ said Markus Schäfer, member of the board of management responsible for Daimler Group Research and COO Mercedes-Benz cars. ‘Our vehicle portfolio becomes electric and thus also our global production network with vehicle and battery factories. We intend to lead in the field of e-mobility and focus in particular on battery technology. We are taking a comprehensive approach, ranging from research and development to production, and also including strategic cooperation.’

Global production

The first Mercedes-Benz electric luxury sedan, the EQS, will launch from Factory 56 in Sindelfingen in the first half of 2021. The electric EQA C-SUV will also be made at the Beijing plant in China next year, after initially entering production at the Rastatt plant in Germany this year. It is a similar story for the EQE, which will be built in the Bremen site in Germany and Beijing in China from next year. Meanwhile, the EQB compact will be built at the Kecskemét plant in Hungary in 2021. The EQS und EQE SUVs will be manufactured in Alabama, US, starting from 2022. The EQC business sedan is already built in Bremen and Beijing.

Battery systems will also be produced and assembled in Germany, Poland, Beijing and Alabama. ‘The local production of batteries is an essential success factor in our electric offensive,’ said Jörg Burzer, member of the board of management for production and supply chain. He explained that the carmaker already produces batteries in Kamenz, Bangkok and Beijing, with a network that is well-positioned for the EQ offensive. ‘The ramp-up of our battery plants in Hedelfingen and Jawor is imminent and our colleagues in Brühl and Tuscaloosa are already preparing to start production in 2022.’

‘The Mercedes-Benz production network is global, digital and flexible, and ready for the upcoming electric offensive – thanks, of course, to our highly qualified and motivated employees worldwide. We are now beginning a real Mercedes-EQ fireworks display,’ said Burzer.

‘Six electric product launches by 2022 underscore the strength and competence of our Mercedes-Benz production sites worldwide. The production network will have a total of six Mercedes-EQ car locations. Local production of highly efficient battery systems plays a central role in the Mercedes-Benz strategy – coupled with a comprehensive sustainability concept that spans the entire life cycle of the battery all the way to recycling,’ he concluded.

Making the battery market more sustainable

The European Commission wants to enforce mandatory requirements on all batteries entering the EU market, which includes applications within the automotive sector, alongside industrial and portable-uses cases.

This could include using responsibly-sourced materials with constrained use of hazardous substances, including a minimum amount of recycled materials, as well as carbon footprint, performance and durability. The Commission argues this would help develop a more sustainable and competitive battery industry across Europe and the wider world.

These requirements come as part of plans that will modernise EU legislation on batteries, focusing on greater sustainability throughout their lifecycle. They also address social, economic, and environmental issues tied to all types of batteries.

The changes complement the Circular Economy Action Plan, a core building block of the European Green Deal. The Commission argues these roadmaps promote competitive sustainability while enabling green transport, clean energy and the attainment of climate neutrality by 2050.

Sustainable and safe

The proposals set out the need for batteries placed on the EU market to become sustainable, high-performing and safe throughout their whole lifecycle. This singles out batteries produced with the lowest level of environmental impact, using materials sourced in full respect of human rights, following social and ecological standards. Under these proposals, at the end of their life cycle, these units should be repurposed, remanufactured or recycled, allowing valuable materials to re-enter the economy.

In addition, providing legal certainty would help unlock large-scale investment and boost the production capacity for innovation and sustainability, to help Europe respond to a fast-growing battery market. ‘Better and more performant batteries will make a key contribution to the electrification of road transport, which will significantly reduce its emissions, increase the uptake of electric vehicles and facilitate a higher share of renewable sources in the EU energy mix,’ the Commission argues.

‘Clean energy is the key to European Green Deal, but our increasing reliance on batteries in, for example, transport should not harm the environment,’ said Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal. ‘The new batteries regulation will help reduce the environmental and social impact of all batteries throughout their life cycle. Today’s proposal allows the EU to scale up the use and production of batteries in a safe, circular and healthy way.’

Collection and recycling

With its proposal, the Commission also aims to boost the circular economy of batteries, promoting the more efficient use of resources, and aiming to reduce the environmental impact. From July 2024, only electrically-chargeable vehicles (EV) with a carbon footprint declaration can enter the market.

To improve the collection and recycling of portable batteries, the 45% collection rate should increase to 65% in 2025, and 70% in 2030. Units from the automotive sector meanwhile have to be collected in full. This enables the recovery of valuable materials like cobalt, lithium, nickel and lead.

The use of new technology, like the battery passport and interlinked-data space, will help enable safe data sharing, increase market transparency, and make large batteries traceable throughout their life cycle.

‘This future-oriented legislative toolbox will upgrade the sustainability of batteries in each phase of their lifecycle,’ said commissioner for environment, oceans and fisheries Virginijus Sinkevičius. ‘Batteries are full of valuable materials and we want to ensure that no battery is lost to waste. The sustainability of batteries has to grow hand in hand with their increasing numbers on the EU market.‘

Corona adé? – Ein vorsichtiger Blick ins Automobiljahr 2021

Bei aller Diskussion um Maßnahmen, Impfungen und anderer gesellschaftlicher Themen in der aktuellen Pandemiebekämpfung, fällt in der Branche der Jahresrückblick meist etwas milder aus als zwischenzeitlich befürchtet. Zeit, einen vagen und etwas ungewissen ersten Blick ins nächste Jahr zu werfen.

Für das Jahr 2021 erwarten wir nach einem voraussichtlichen 2020er Ergebnis von knapp 2,9 Mio. PKW-Neuzulassungen eine Erholung auf knapp 3,1 Mio. Im Positiven dürften die wiedergewonnenen Produktionskapazitäten als auch die deutlich geringeren Mengen an sehr jungen Gebrauchten aus dem ablaufenden Jahr zu Buche schlagen.

Die in 2020 notwendige Substitution des produktionsbedingten Neuwagenmangels, wird dabei zunehmend verschwinden, aber in manchen Fällen eben immer noch lieferzeitbedingt stattfinden. Aber auch die geringeren Mengen an volumenstarken Neuerscheinungen in 2021 und die Ausdünnung der Angebotspalette, aufgrund von drohenden CO2-Strafzahlungen finden ihren Niederschlag. Insgesamt haben wir auch eine etwas gedämpfte Erwartung an die gesamtwirtschaftliche Entwicklung, die die private Kaufkraft und den Investitionswillen von gewerblichen Neuwagenkunden schmälern wird. Einige negative Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf die Binnenwirtschaft werden wir zeitverzögert eben erst im kommenden Jahr erleben.

Damit wird das Neuzulassungsergebnis in unseren Augen unter den Vorjahren und sehr deutlich unter dem Spitzenjahr 2019 liegen. 2019 war allerdings auch ein Jahr, das vor allem in gewerblichen und taktischen Zulassungen gewachsen ist, was letztendlich in erster Linie das zukünftige Gebrauchtwagenangebot erhöht, aber angesichts des kaum gewachsenen privaten Neuwagensektors keine bedarfsgesteuerte Entwicklung darstellt. Glück im Unglück, dass dieses Jahr die Neuwagenproduktion eingeschränkt war und diesen Mehrvolumen ein Ventil verschafft hat.

Bemerkenswert für alle war die Entwicklung der Neuzulassungen nach Treibstoffarten. Ein prämienbedingter immenser Schub bei Plug-Ins und vollelektrischen Modellen und heftige Einbußen an Verbrennern (Abb. 1). Neuwagen-Nachfrage ist insbesondere bei Plug-In Hybriden künstlich geschaffen worden, der der Bedarf am Gebrauchtwagenmarkt noch stark hinterherhinkt.

Für die Besitzumschreibungen erwarten wir ebenfalls eine leichte Verbesserung gegenüber dem Ausgang dieses Jahres. Das Gebrauchtwagengeschäft war im ablaufenden Jahr unter den gegebenen Umständen durchaus erfolgreich und wird bis Jahreswechsel wohl knapp über 7 Millionen PKW umgesetzt haben. In 2021 rechnen wir wieder mit etwa 7 Millionen PKW, also unter den Jahren 2017-2019, da zum einen die Flottenzulassungen aus den rückliegenden relevanten Jahren 2017/2018 etwas rückläufig waren und zudem fast 400.000 taktische Zulassungen aus 2020 fehlen, die üblicherweise zu zwei Dritteln im Jahr nach Zulassung als junge Gebrauchte an Endkunden verkauft werden. Angesichts einer zu erwartenden stabilen Nachfrage durchaus ein Pluspunkt für die Preisentwicklung im kommenden Jahr, aber die Angebotsmenge wird vermutlich schlichtweg fehlen.

Insgesamt besteht aber aus Restwertsicht für 2021 ein nicht zu unterschätzendes Risiko für junge gebrauchte Plug-In Hybride und Elektrofahrzeuge, die nun in großer Stückzahl aus taktischen Zulassungen dieses Jahres vermarktet werden müssen und mangels Kaufanreiz unter Volumen- und Preisdruck geraten werden. Verbrenner haben sich wertseitig auf niedrigem Niveau stabilisiert mit leichter Aufwärtstendenz für Diesel.

Die neue Kfz-Steuerberechnung ab Januar wird aufgrund ihrer immer noch vergleichsweise geringen finanziellen Konsequenz dabei kaum steuernde Wirkung haben. Vergleicht man beispielsweise selbst für wahre „CO2-Schleudern“ die Steuer bei einer Zulassung vor und nach dem 1. Januar 2021 kommt man auf Mehrkosten von selten nennenswert zweistelligen Euro-Beträgen im Monat.

Natürlich setzen wir bei unseren Annahmen voraus, dass das Jahr pandemisch einen optimistischen Verlauf nimmt und keine schwerwiegenden Einflüsse den Markt treffen.

Hoffen und Bangen, eine Kombination, die nach nun mehreren Branchenkrisen als Fazit unter vielen Jahresrückblicken und –ausblicken hätte stehen können.

2021 bietet aber vor allem Chancen. Egal, ob durch bessere Krisenvorbereitung, neue und digitale Geschäftsmodelle, verändertes Käuferverhalten oder zusätzlichen Dienstleistungsbedarf. Gute Konzepte setzen sich auch in schwierigen Zeiten durch.

Grafik COVID-19 Neuzulassungen nach Treibstoffart

European Commission’s sustainable mobility strategy far from reality, says ACEA

The European Commission has drawn back the curtain on its Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, with an action plan of 82 initiatives that will direct transport policy in Europe. It sets out how the EU’s transportation network can achieve its green and digital transformation, resulting in a 90% cut in emissions within the next 30 years. These new initiatives will set the standard over the next four years, with additional industry targets set for 2030, 2035 and 2050.

While the automotive sector has recognised the need to boost the uptake of zero-emission vehicles, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has warned that some of the Commission’s ambitions could be a stretch. It explains the industry already dedicates much of its yearly €60.9 billion research and development budget to decarbonisation, as electromobility and digitisation shape a cleaner future.

Sustainable milestones

By providing clear milestones, the European Commission hopes to keep the transport system’s journey towards a smart and sustainable future on track. This includes ensuring there are at least 30 million zero-emission cars in operation by 2030, as well as the large-scale deployment of automated mobility, and climate neutrality in 100 European cities.

By 2050, the Commission wants nearly all cars, vans, busses and new heavy goods vehicles to be zero emission. It also expects there to be a fully-operational, multimodal Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) for sustainable and smart transport with high-speed connectivity.

‘To reach our climate targets, emissions from the transport sector must get on a clear downward trend,’ said Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal. ‘Today’s strategy will shift the way people and goods move across Europe and make it easy to combine different modes of transport in a single journey. We’ve set ambitious targets for the entire transport system to ensure a sustainable, smart, and resilient return from the COVID-19 crisis.’

82 initiatives

To achieve these goals, the Commission’s strategy outlines 82 initiatives within 10 key areas for action. So, for transport to become more sustainable, practical measures will need to be taken. This includes boosting the uptake of zero-emission vehicles, which can be targeted by installing three million public charging points and 1,000 hydrogen filling stations by 2030. The strategy also outlines the need to make urban mobility healthy and sustainable, for instance, by doubling high-speed rail traffic and developing extra cycling infrastructure over the next decade.

In terms of smart innovations, the Commission wants to see more connected and automated mobility, like allowing freight to seamlessly switch between transport modes. The strategy also plans on boosting the use of data and artificial intelligence, which could include supporting the deployment of drones and unmanned aircraft.

Reality check

Taking note of the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, ACEA acknowledged the objective of boosting the uptake of zero-emission cars. However, it warned the ambition to have 30 million of them across European roads by 2030 could be unrealistic. ‘Unfortunately, this vision is far removed from today’s reality,’ cautioned ACEA director-general, Eric-Mark Huitema.

New research by the association points out that of the 243 million passenger cars on the road in Europe last year, less than 615,000 fell into the zero-emission category, making up less than 0.25% of the whole car fleet. ‘To meet the Commission’s objective, we would need to see an almost 50-fold increase in zero-emission cars in circulation on our roads in just 10 years,’ Huitema explained.

He went on to say that despite industry investment and a growing market share, not all the right conditions were in place yet to take such a massive leap, such as the availability of charging points. ‘The European Commission should match its level of ambition for rolling out infrastructure across the EU with its ambition for reducing CO2 emissions from vehicles. It is quite simple: the higher the climate targets become, the higher targets for charging points and refuelling stations should be. Unfortunately, we still see a mismatch between these two elements at EU level,’ he warned.

A recent report by ACEA identifies the need for the deployment of 15 times more infrastructure over the next 11 years to meet the Commission’s target of three million public charging points, up from 200,000 last year. The association is therefore calling again for an urgent review of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive, to push national governments to invest.

‘Experience has shown us that a voluntary approach to these infrastructure targets does not work,’ stated Huitema. ‘While some EU countries have been very active, others have done little or nothing. The AFID review really must include binding infrastructure targets for member states.’

Apart from infrastructure, ACEA also identified other necessary measures to encourage consumers to make the switch to zero-emission mobility. This included the need for more aggressive carbon pricing, the continuation of fleet renewal schemes, as well as the re-training of sector workers.

Schwacke Insights Dezember 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Der Jahresausklang sieht aus der Vorkrisenperspektive nicht so schlecht aus, wie man im März erwartet haben mag. Das Niveau ist jedoch deutlich unter Vorjahr. Mengen wachsen langsam wieder an, weil Verkäufe leicht zurückgehen, während der Nachschub weiter fließt. Standzeiten der Verkauften sind auf erfreulich niedrigem Niveau, allerdings stagnieren die Werte für den Angebotsbestand, was für „Stehenbleiber“ spricht. Insgesamt dürfte der Bestand mittleren Alters am Jahresende ungefähr auf Vorjahresniveau liegen. Aufgrund des guten Verkaufs und geringem Nachschub sind die Jüngeren aber seltener als Weihnachten 2019. Insgesamt stehen also knapp 100.000 Gebrauchte weniger im Netz, was dem 2021er-Start geringeren Preisdruck verleiht. Bei den Schnelldrehern erfreuen sich in diesem Alterssegment zunehmend die 2017 neu zugelaufenen Sechszylinder Diesel des GLC großer Beliebtheit.

Schwacke Insights Dezember 2020

Schwacke Newcomer Dezember 2020 – Neue Modelle im Forecast

Kombinationslos glücklich – Futur composé

Im Dezember haben wir wieder Restwertprognosen für eine interessante Fahrzeugneuerscheinung in unsere Datenbank aufgenommen:

• Citroën C4

Citroën C4 – Der Nonkonformist

Der französische Kompakte hatte es seit jeher schwer am Heimatmarkt des VW Golf im deutschesten aller Segmente. Insbesondere das Fehlen einer hierzulande so beliebten Kombiversion, die es vor der Jahrtausendwende bei den Vorgängern ZX und Xsara noch gab, hat ihn viel Akzeptanz gekostet. Auf das futuristische Design des Coupés von 2004 bezieht sich die aktuelle Generation aber optisch vielleicht auch, um den einen oder anderen an dessen Erfolge in der WRC-Rallye zu erinnern. Darüber hinaus ist der Neue neben einer Coupé-Dachlinie mit Crossover-Elementen ausgestattet, wohl um der mangelnden Popularität seiner beiden Eltern optisch zu begegnen. Erhöhte Bodenfreiheit und kunststoffumrandete Radhäuser schlagen hierbei eine Brücke zu den beliebteren Hochbeinern. Ein Elternpaar war es tatsächlich, da der letzte C4 nur bis 2018 angeboten und durch den etwas glücklosen C4 Cactus bis zuletzt vertreten wurde. Beide mussten mit einem relativ hohen Anteil taktischer Zulassungen von etwa 70% eher als junger Gebrauchter einen Abnehmer finden, was sich entsprechend nachteilig auf den Wiederverkaufswert ausgewirkt hat. Die aktuelle Version versucht es mit Großzügigkeit und kommt überraschend gut ausgestattet daher. Vom Werk bekommt er immer LED-Scheinwerfer, 18-Zoll-Felgen (allerdings Stahl in der Basis), Digitaldisplay – wenn auch recht klein, Verkehrszeichenerkennung, Klimaautomatik und die Adanced Comfort Federung mit auf den Weg. Ab der zweiten Ausstattungslinie sind sogar Navigationssystem und ein ausfahrendes Head-up Display ohne Aufpreis dabei. Bei den Materialien im Innenraum zeigt der Citroën dann allerdings, dass die Marke im PSA-Konzern eher in der Budget-Region positioniert ist. Viel Hartplastik teils in Sichtebenen schmälern den Eindruck des ansonsten erfreulich frisch gestalteten Interieurs. Und wo wir bei „Sicht“ und „Schmälern“ sind, sollte der eingeschränkte Blick durch das spoiler-geteilte und wischerlose Heckfenster nicht unerwähnt bleiben. Da der in Spanien gebaute Franzose auf der modernen CMP-Plattform aufbaut, nutzt PSA die Gelegenheit, ihn auch mit Elektromotor auf die Straße zu bringen. Es fehlt hier allerdings noch eine stärkere Motorisierung, um vollständig mit VW ID.3 oder Nissan Leaf zu konkurrieren. Der neue C4 bietet insgesamt neben einer guten Ausstattung vor allem eines: Individualität. Und das ist ganz sicher im Sinne seines Namensgebers André Citroën

Newcomer Dezember 2020

UK registrations stall in November as second lockdown takes effect

UK new-car registrations fell by 27.4% year-on-year in November, as a second lockdown came into effect, closing dealerships and hampering sales. New data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reveals that 42,840 fewer cars joined British roads, resulting in a £1.3 billion (€1.4 billion) revenue hit for the market.

In total, the UK saw 113,781 new-car registrations last month, taking trade back to levels not seen since the 2008 recession. Private demand fell by 32.2%, while registrations by large fleets dropped by 22.1%. While this most recent decline demonstrates the continued impact of COVID-19, the drop was less severe than the one in the UK’s first lockdown which began in March, where registrations fell by 97.3% in April alone.

Fuel type divergence

Positive trends did continue for alternative-fuel cars, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) increasing their number of registrations, up 122.4% and 76.9% respectively. BEVs enjoyed their third-highest ever monthly market share at 9.1%, with PHEVs also building their share up to 6.8%.

Nearly 37% of the market was held by low-emission fuel types in November, resulting in a year-on-year change of 74.1%. This resulted in a combined total of 18,000 new zero-emission capable cars joining the UK’s roads during the month. Meanwhile, petrol continued to hold on to its market majority at 49.1%, with a year-on-year registrations drop of 41.9%, from 96,166 in November 2019 to 55,855 in the same period this year. Diesel sales fell by 56.2% to 15,925 in November 2020 from 36,329 units in the same period last year, holding on to 14% of the market.

Grafik: Neuwagen Anmeldungen November 2020 SMMT
Source: SMMT

Protective measures in place

November’s partial triumph is the result of manufacturers being better prepared to deal with the pandemic, having already put in place protective measures during the first wave of COVID-19 and the resulting lockdowns, such as click and collect ordering systems with little to no human contact.

‘Given the huge contribution that COVID-19-secure showrooms make to the economy and a national recovery, reopening dealerships across most of the UK will help protect jobs in retail and manufacturing and should help stimulate spending,’ the SMMT said.

So far, the automotive sector has been stripped of 663,761 units this year, down 30.7%. This means that some 31,000 cars would need to be registered every working day in December if the market was to climb back to the level expected at the beginning of 2020.


UK new-car registrations, January 2018 to December 2020 (forecast from December 2020)

UK new-car registrations, January 2018 to December 2020

Source: SMMT and Autovista Group

‘Compared with the spring lockdown, manufacturers, dealers and consumers were all better prepared to adjust to constrained trading conditions,’ said Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive. ‘But with £1.3 billion worth of new car revenue lost in November alone, the importance of showroom trading to the UK economy is evident and we must ensure they remain open in any future COVID-19 restrictions. More positively, with a vaccine now approved, the business and consumer confidence on which this sector depends can only improve, giving the industry more optimism for the turn of the year.’

Now with less than a month to go until the UK leaves the EU, talks over a trade deal look to be reaching a pinnacle moment. In the event of no free-trade agreement between the UK and EU tariffs of 10% could be added to imports and exports. Carmakers have already cautioned their inability to absorb this additional cost, meaning they could tag it onto the price of new cars imported into the country, which will only come to hurt the sector further.

New-car registrations deteriorate across Europe in November

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King considers the ongoing downward trend in new-car registrations in France, Italy and Spain in November.

Despite government-backed incentives in France, Italy and Spain, new-car registrations suffered significantly again in November, according to data released by the respective automotive trade associations. As countries battle the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, restrictions and/or economic repercussions are impacting registration volumes, albeit inflicting far less damage than in March to May.

Following the lifting of lockdowns earlier in the year, the countries’ automotive markets had shown signs of recovery, but, all three suffered a continuation of the downward trend that commenced in September. The 18.7% contraction in Spain was a subtle improvement on the 21.0% year-on-year decline in October, but this was only because of the extra working day in November 2020 compared to November 2019.

New-car registrations, France, Italy and Spain, year-on-year percentage change, January to November 2020

Neuzulassungen von Pkw, Frankreich, Italien und Spanien, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in Prozent, Januar bis November 2020

Source: CCFA, ANFIA, ANFAC

New-car registrations were 27.0% lower in France in November 2020 than in the same month of 2019, even with one extra working day, according to the latest data released by the CCFA, the French automotive industry association. This is the largest year-on-year decline in a month since May, but compared to the dramatic falls in March and April, ‘the re-confinement had decidedly different consequences for the car market,’ commented the CCFA in a flash statement.

‘All the dealers were closed in France in November. They were only allowed to deliver cars that had already been ordered before the second lockdown. They have reopened since 28 November,’ clarified Yoann Taitz, Autovista Group head of valuations and insights, France and Benelux. As dealers could still honour deliveries of orders, this explains why the downturn in France was far less significant in November than during the first lockdown.

In the first 11 months of 2020, new-car registrations in France were 26.9% lower than in the same period in 2019. With dealers open again, December will invariably be a healthier month for the automotive sector, but new-car registrations will still be about 25% lower in 2020 than in 2019.

Less lockdown, more crisis in Spain

In Spain, 75,708 new cars were registered during November, 18.7% fewer than in November 2019, according to ANFAC, the Spanish vehicle manufacturers’ association. ‘The red numbers remain in all segments and vehicle-sales channels in November 2020, and therefore in the cumulative figures. The second wave of the pandemic, and the associated serious economic and social crisis, is deepening the decline in sales in all markets,’ ANFAC commented.

The MOVES II and RENOVE incentive schemes were introduced in July and the new-car market saw a 1.1% increase that month. Since then, however, the year-on-year results have deteriorated, with the November fall only improving slightly on October because of the extra working day in the month.

Ana Azofra, valuations and insights manager at Autovista Group in Spain, explained that ‘the lockdown had many different scenarios, depending on the region and city, but was less restrictive than during the first wave and dealers – at least most of them – remain open. However, the RENOVE incentives for internal combustion engines (ICE) are exhausted and, moreover, the crisis is already affecting private consumption. The unemployment rate already increased in Spain and now stands at 16.5%, maintaining the negative trend.’

Measures to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 infections and the economic repercussions of the crisis are clearly weakening consumer demand. Furthermore, the calculation of the registration tax based on WLTP emissions figures, from January 2021, will further complicate the recovery.

‘Half of the vehicles sold in 2021 will see their taxation increased at the time of purchase due to the entry into operation of the European WLTP regulation. This average price increase of 5% will mean, in such a bad environment for vehicle sales, a worsening of the sector’s situation, making it even more difficult to get out of the crisis. We need the registration tax increase to be corrected before January 1 so that the [automotive] industry and the sector can be the driver of the Spanish economy that they have always been and will be,’ the three associations, ANFAC, Faconauto and Ganvam, declared in the ANFAC release.

Second consecutive monthly decline in Italy

In Italy, the year-on-year downturn in November reported by the industry association ANFIA was 8.3%, although the result would have been worse (down about 12%) had there not been the extra working day. This is the second consecutive month that the country is back in negative territory following the 9.5% growth in new-car registrations in September due to the new government incentives that came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). While the market still contracted in that month, demand improved but delivery times delayed many registrations until September.

As in Spain, there was not ‘a full lockdown in Italy like the one we experienced in March and car dealers were – and still are – open. However, depending on the zones, there is a ‘light’ lockdown, with different restrictions that put pressure on sales as a result. Furthermore, the incentive scheme for vehicles with the highest range of CO2 emissions has been exhausted,’ commented Marco Pasquetti, forecast and data specialist of Autovista Group in Italy.

‘Without a new intervention to support the car market, the new drop in sales leaves companies with the need to reactivate layoffs, which, in any case, will not be sufficient to stem the loss of turnover today, compared to 2019, at an average value of -25%. The data on the use of the redundancy fund in the period January to October 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, show an increase of 6,000%. These are striking data that induce reflection on the cost of failure to support the car,’ highlighted Adolfo De Stefani Cosentino, president of FEDERAUTO, in the ANFIA release.

The key to the recovery of new-car markets revolves around countries agreeing on budgets for 2021, and improving economic certainty and consumer confidence to boost spending. However, with COVID-19 not yet under control, and further lockdowns possible, the industry faces a difficult end to 2020 and a challenging 2021.

VW ID.3 offers TCO and equipment advantage over Golf VIII in Germany

Christoph Ruhland, Autovista Group’s European sales director, has produced analysis that reveals that the Volkswagen ID.3 has a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) and better standard equipment than the Golf VIII.

Volkswagen (VW) commenced order intake for the new ID.3 battery-electric vehicle (BEV) in Germany on 24 November. At face value, VW’s first dedicated BEV model has a higher TCO than the latest generation of the Golf, largely due to the higher acquisition costs of the ID.3 as its list price (about €35,000) is significantly higher than the 1.5-litre petrol Golf VIII.

Depreciation is the largest single factor in calculating acquisition costs and Autovista Group has benchmarked the prices and forecast residual values of both the ID.3 and Golf VIII against key competitors. Acquisition costs also include taxes and finance.

TCO and acquisition costs, VW Golf VIII versus ID.3

TCO und Anschaffungskosten, VW Golf VIII versus ID.3

Source: Autovista Group, Car Cost Expert

The higher acquisition costs of the ID.3 are partly compensated by the BEV’s reduced utilisation costs, due to lower spending on fuel, service, wear and insurance. As with all BEVs, service costs are lower than for cars with internal combustion engines due to the lack of oil, and components such as oil filters and spark plugs. In fact, the ID.3 only requires replacement of the brake fluid and pollen filter at regular service intervals.

Service costs, VW Golf VIII versus ID.3

Servicekosten, VW Golf VIII versus ID.3

Source: Autovista Group, Car Cost Expert

However, crucially, BEVs in Germany are subsidised with generous purchase incentives. The grant for BEVs costing less than €40,000 previously amounted to €6,000, split equally between the government and the carmaker. Since 1 July, the government has doubled its incentive (from €3,000 to €6,000) and in combination with the additional €3,000 contribution from VW, the acquisition costs of the ID.3 are about €1,400 lower than for the petrol Golf. In combination with the lower utilisation costs, the incentive-adjusted TCO of the ID.3 is about €4,300 less than the petrol Golf.

This aligns with Autovista Group analysis of C-segment models, published in June, which uncovered that BEVs are only TCO-competitive in European markets because of government incentives. In Germany, the additional €3,000 government subsidy since 1 July gives the ID.3 a significant TCO advantage over the Golf VIII.

Discounting and equipment analysis

However, customers may be able to negotiate a healthy discount on the Golf VIII, which OEMs are unlikely to offer on BEVs in addition to their €3,000 incentive contribution. For example, a 20% discount on the petrol Golf would give it a TCO advantage of approximately €2,150 over the ID.3. Nevertheless, a 5% discount on the ID.3, in addition to the €9,000 BEV incentive, would be sufficient to make its TCO competitive with a 20%-discounted Golf.

Furthermore, it must be noted that the ID.3 has 204 horsepower and is therefore more powerful than the 150-horsepower 1.5-litre petrol Golf. The ID.3 also has better standard equipment, which Autovista Group has calculated to be worth about €1,800.

Equipment costs, VW Golf VIII versus ID.3

Ausstattungskosten, VW Golf VIII versus ID.3

Source: Autovista Group, Car Cost Expert

When this is factored into the TCO calculation, the ID.3, even without discounting, narrowly beats a Golf with a 20% discount. If the ID.3 gains a 5% discount, the TCO advantage would amount to €2.400.

This would leave enough change for ID.3 buyers to invest in a home charger for the ID.3, which costs about €2,000 in Germany, including installation. Chargers are also entitled to a government incentive in Germany, about €900, and so EV-friendly families could even buy and install two units with the cost saving. Maybe one for themselves to overcome charging anxiety and one as an extra source of income?

Click here to view Autovista Group’s TCO dashboard for C-segment models, published before incentives were increased in Germany in July, and here for the TCO dashboard for B-segment models, published in September.

Autovista Group’s latest TCO dashboard considers D-SUV BEVs, revealing that they struggle to compete with petrol and plug-in hybrid D-SUV models without being eligible for government incentives.

Tesla self-driving update teased as suspension probe begins

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed wider ‘Full Self-Driving’ Beta software could be released within roughly two weeks. Targeted testing of the package began in October, with early users able to make autonomous turns on city streets, all linked through the car’s navigation and autopilot features.

However, this announcement was made as the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened up a new probe into roughly 115,000 Tesla vehicles. The investigation will focus on a safety issue with the front suspension of the Model S (2015-2017) and the Model X (2016-2017).

Self-driving software

Taking to Twitter at the end of last week (27 November), Musk confirmed the expansion of new self-driving features for Tesla vehicles within a fortnight. ‘Probably going to a wider beta in two weeks,’ he told a user enquiring as to whether the latest software would be available in Minnesota.

In October, the so-called ‘Full Self-Driving’ Beta software was initially offered to a select number of ‘expert, careful’ drivers. Delivering an almost feature-complete self-driving package, users are required to constantly monitor the system as is made apparent in the release notes.

‘Full Self-Driving is in early limited-access Beta and must be used with additional caution. It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, so you must always keep your hands on the wheel and pay extra attention to the road. Do not become complacent.’

Tesla outlined that when enabled, the new software would allow the user’s vehicle to ‘make lane changes off highway, select forks to follow your navigation route, navigate around other vehicles and objects, and make left and right turns.’

Musk had previously said the latest upgrade wold be widely released by the end of 2020. The system looks to become more robust and capable as it gathers additional data to feed its neural networks, improving with each new user. With the majority of this testing appearing to focus on the US market, and given the current legislative quagmire surrounding autonomous capabilities in Europe, uncertainty remains around when Tesla owners elsewhere in the world might experience this new system.

Suspension investigation

This announcement also fell under the shadow of a new probe opened up by the NHTSA, affecting an estimated 114,761 vehicles. The agency began the preliminary investigation after receiving 43 complaints alleging failure of the left or right front-suspension links. In a NHTSA document, the issue was linked to malfunction of the knuckle ball-joint ring in the Model S (2015-2017) and Model X (2016-2017), which could result in contact between the tyre and wheel liner.

Of the 43 complaints received by the agency, 32 involved failures occurring during low-speed parking manoeuvres (below 16kph), and 11 while driving (above 16kph), including four at highway speeds. ‘The complaints appear to indicate an increasing trend, with 34 complaints received in the last two years and three of the incidents at highway speeds reported within the last three months,’ the document detailed.

Tesla was approached for a statement, but did not respond to the request prior to the publication of this article. As this investigation continues in the US, Tesla owners in Europe will again have to wait and see how they are impacted.

Will car sharing get a post-COVID second wind?

The sharing economy and car sharing are sociologically attractive concepts. We seek to live more sustainably, and digitally-enabled business models have increased accessibility to sharing solutions. On the other hand, car sharing (and ride hailing) have failed to reduce road congestion or the number of cars in operation. They share another joint challenge: they struggle to become profitable and have been crushed through the pandemic. Dr. Christof Engelskirchen, Autovista Group chief economist, shares his perspective.

The sharing economy is driven by a desire to connect with a community, to declutter, to increase flexibility and to live more sustainably. It is often facilitated by community-based online platforms. Car sharing is a logical extension of the sharing economy and has grown in popularity over the past 10 years.  We differentiate between three types:

  1. Free-floating car sharing, where cars park on public roads within a geo-fenced area. This service exists almost exclusively in larger cities. Smaller cities (<500,000 inhabitants) do not attract free-floating car-sharing services due to expected low utilisation rates. Pre-booking is not possible;
  2. Stationary car sharing, where drivers pick up cars and return them to dedicated locations. Pre-booking is usually required. Peer-to-peer car sharing (e.g. via Zipcar or Turo) falls under this category as well; and
  3. Ride hailing. This can be peer-to-peer based or professional-service ride-hailing (e.g. Uber or Lyft). The difference to the traditional taxi ride is that it is fully online-enabled and cheaper. Depending on the supplier and business model, pre-booking is possible. In peer-to-peer-based business models (e.g. Blablacar), pre-booking is usually required.

Rise, hype, disillusionment

Shared mobility saw a rise and was hyped years ago, but was confronted with challenges even before Covid-19 put another temporary obstacle in the way. These are the known challenges for free-floating and stationary car sharing:

  • Low utilisation rates – particularly problematic in free-floating car sharing as more cars are required than in a stationary setup to allow for flexible access. Drivers use free-floating car sharing for shorter trips, which brings utilisation down;
  • High costs for parking – particularly challenging in free-floating car sharing, as these cars park on public roads or in publicly-accessible parking garages;
  • High costs related to mistreatments, service and cleaning. Higher-frequency driver changes add to the challenge. Cars need to be regularly cleaned, often daily or on an ad hoc basis;
  • Additional costs for relocating cars. Cars need to be regularly re-distributed within the network as clusters form, e.g. at airports in the morning. This requires a human being to pick cars up from remote locations and put them back into those areas that would attract most drivers to the car. This is a daily logistical challenge for free-floating car sharing but affects stationary car sharing as well;
  • Cars depreciate more and faster in a shared-driver setup. Remarketing results are substantially lower and refurbishment costs are higher;
  • Competing micromobility solutions, such as e-scooters and shared bikes, represent another challenge to the profitability of car-sharing services. Renting a Smart in Frankfurt or an e-scooter costs approximately the same: around €0.20 per minute;
  • Car sharing is challenged in two more important use cases: safety regarding transport of (small) children and in terms of cost when running multi-stop trips; and
  • Bigger cities have no particular interest in offering preferential conditions for car sharing as they learn that this service does not help manage city car parking.

Rising numbers of cars in cities

There have been plenty of seemingly contradictory views on the effects of car sharing on new-car sales, congestion and substitution. The contradictions stem from non-representative samples, methodological flaws and a non-comprehensive analysis of the topic. For example, researchers forget to simulate the faster replacement cycles of cars in shared fleets or conduct surveys amongst car-sharing customers. Lobby groups are the driving force behind many studies. This does not help to demystify the topic. Autovista Group research found that the net effect on new-car sales of car sharing is positive, i.e. the shorter holding cycles overcompensate the loss of private new-car purchases.

We see this confirmed when looking at cities in Germany where free-floating and stationary car sharing is most prominently accessible. Figure 1 shows that the car-park size has increased between 8-12% between 2012 and 2020. There has been exponential growth in car-sharing units but they still only contribute 0.05% to the cars in operation in Germany.

Figure 1: Size of B2B car-sharing park vs. total passenger car park in selected German cities

Größe des B2B-Carsharing-Parks vs. Gesamt-Pkw-Parkplatz in ausgewählten deutschen Städten

Ride hailing increases congestion

Ride-hailing businesses are struggling with profitability. There are concerns about the sustainability of the business model as long as cars need a driver. A scientific study from 2019, which analyses the role of ride-hailing companies on traffic congestion in San Francisco, concluded that ride hailing increases congestion. There is some substitution between ride hailing and other road trips, but most road trips add new cars to the road. Ride-hailing vehicles stopping at the curb to pick up or drop off passengers have a notable disruptive effect on traffic flow, especially on major arterials. This was evident at the CES in Las Vegas in 2019: the city lacks a solid public-transport infrastructure and if you choose to take an Uber or Lyft, signs direct you to pick-up and drop-off areas at the major resorts. Downtown, no curb pick-ups and drop-offs are permitted.

Unmet promise

Car sharing has failed to deliver against the promise of contributing to lowering the traffic problems in big cities. It does not reduce the number of vehicles. It takes up parking space. It cannibalises public transport and cities will not give preferential treatment to these services unless they see a positive benefit. Stationary car sharing is less affected by these challenges but is also far less flexible for users. Many free-floating car-sharing services have been taken off the market because of profitability challenges, not only because of the lack of economies of scale.

Even Daimler and BMW, which combined their Car2Go and DriveNow services into ShareNow, have withdrawn from major cities and countries (e.g. Florence, London, Milan, Brussels and North America). Free-floating car sharing will likely continue to be part of multi-modal mobility solutions in the future, but there will be no or only very few additional cities added to the portfolio in the short term due to the challenges around profitability. Free-floating car sharing will not be a disruptive force to inner-city mobility. It will be a niche play, if it can be operated profitably.

The outlook

Stationary car sharing will continue to complement multi-modal mobility. With the current trend towards flexible work arrangements, suburban areas regain attractiveness. Stationary car-sharing services may add further value for those areas. Peer-to-peer offers have grown through the pandemic as people continue to avoid public transport. Retail locations, or car dealers, may find a niche to offer such services. Rental companies could also enter the market with shorter-term, more flexible arrangements.

Peer-to-peer ride hailing will continue to operate successfully in a niche. Professional-service ride hailing (e.g. Uber, Lyft) will continue to face profitability challenges. Ride hailing in its current form adds price pressure on the backs of drivers that are often self-employed.

In the medium term, professional-service ride hailing could benefit from autonomous driving Level 4, as this will replace the driver. Within the next five to 10 years, it may be suitable for very specific high-utilisation cases as the technology is very expensive. It will not be used in mixed-traffic situations any time soon, due to safety and liability concerns. An example could be autonomous ride hailing to bring people from a Park’n’Ride area to an out-of-city access point for existing public-transport infrastructure. Cities that rely on a highly-utilised public-transport infrastructure will not allow Waymo and other operators to take up and load off passengers at inner-city access and switchover points for public transport. The reason is that cities need to scale and increase utilisation of public transport and to manage car traffic.

TCO Dashboard: D-SUV BEVs uncompetitive because of incentive ineligibility

In the third of a new series that considers total cost of ownership (TCO), Autovista Group has created a dashboard comparing the retail prices (including taxes) and TCO of leading D-SUV battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Senior data journalist Neil King discusses the findings.

Autovista Group’s TCO analysis reveals that D-SUV BEVs will struggle to compete with petrol and plug-in hybrid D-SUV models in France, Spain and the UK as their list prices exceed the price ceiling to be eligible for government incentives. Even in Germany, the TCO of fully-electric D-SUV models is only on a par with petrol models because of the €7,500 incentive. However, the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) BMW X3 has a lower TCO than comparable fully-electric and petrol models, despite only being entitled to a €5,625 subsidy.

TCO Dashboard D-SUV Segment November 2020

Incentive ineligibility

The price positioning (including taxes) of the D-SUV BEVs under review, (Audi e-Tron, Jaguar I-Pace and Mercedes-Benz EQC) is around €70,000 in continental Europe (£65,000 in the UK), This exceeds the price caps of €60,000 in France, €45,000 in Spain and £50,000 in the UK.

Without the aid of subsidies, the D-SUV BEVs are at least €6,000 more expensive than our reference plug-in hybrid model, the BMW X3 PHEV, and €17,000 costlier than the 2.0-litre petrol BMW X3 in France. In Spain, the price premium over the X3 PHEV for the cheapest D-SUV BEV under review, the Mercedes-Benz EQC, is over €17,000 and the Mercedes BEV costs about €28,000 more than the petrol X3. Price differences are similar in the UK too when converting the British Pound to Euro at current exchange rates. In Germany, the subsidy helps to close the pricing gap but the BEVs still cost at least €6,000 and €11,000 more than the X3 PHEV and the petrol X3 respectively.

Full-size electric SUVs can therefore only compete on price against petrol and plug-in hybrid rivals if attractive list price positioning is combined with healthy government support. List prices and/or price ceilings for incentives therefore need to be lower, and the incentives higher for these models to gain momentum.

Discounts

Pricing data is provided in the local currency for the same five models in each market, including retail list prices (including taxes), incentives, discounts, and a final adjusted retail price. The TCO is calculated as the sum of total acquisition costs and total utilisation costs. Acquisition costs cover depreciation, financing and acquisition taxes. Total utilisation costs consist of servicing, fuel, wear, tyres, insurance, and utilisation taxes.

These standard TCO results do not factor in discounts that buyers may negotiate on petrol competitors such as the BMW X3. For this reason, TCO calculations are also provided with discounts of 10% and 20% applied to the 2.0-litre, 184-hp petrol BMW X3 in this analysis.

Emissions implications

The upshot is that there is not a compelling argument for consumers to switch to electric full-size SUVs across Europe. Even in Germany, consumers are likely to favour petrol power as the BEVs do not offer a sufficiently attractive TCO advantage. PHEVs may fare better but the cost savings come with the inconvenience of charging and if the battery is not recharged, which is common among PHEV owners, the savings would of course be eroded.

This is a concern as SUVs continue to gain in popularity and, in turn, are driving up vehicle emissions. Whereas B-segment and C-segment BEVs offer competitive TCO, albeit only because of incentives, there is an argument that this is more important for SUVs as governments and carmakers alike seek to reduce pollution levels. Higher incentives across Europe, along with lower prices and incentive ceilings, would also provide a much-needed boost as the automotive sector contends with the fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Click here or on the screenshot above to view the pricing and TCO dashboard for the D-SUV segment models under review in France, Germany, Spain and the UK.

Click here for the TCO dashboard for C-segment models, and here for the TCO dashboard for B-segment models.

Making waves with EV infrastructure reform

A new clean-energy strategy aimed at upgrading buildings was recently published by the European Commission. As the automotive industry gears up for a new era of electromobility, the renovation wave has the potential to transform the legislation around electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) infrastructure. Autovista Group Daily Brief journalist Tom Geggus spoke with ChargePoint to find out more.

Christelle Verstraeten - ChargePoint
Christelle Verstraeten – ChargePoint

‘We were extremely pleased with the announcement of the renovation wave for a very simple reason, because it touches upon private buildings,’ said Christelle Verstraeten, ChargePoint’s EU Policy Lead. At an EU wide level, everything related to publicly-accessible charging infrastructure falls under the alternative-fuels infrastructure directive (AFID), which is undergoing evaluation with a revision proposal due next year, she explained. This makes sense given that the directive was first adopted in 2014, making it somewhat dated when considering the advance of EV technology and demand. 

‘But if you talk about every charger that needs to be put in a private parking space, either at home or even possibly a private workspace, this is not AFID, it is the energy performance of buildings directive (EPBD), which is part of this renovation wave,’ Verstraeten said. As private locations are central to EV recharging, calls for greater development of this directive were made: ‘we needed a higher ambition from the EU to deploy charging stations in that space.’

Currently, under article 8 of the EPBD, EU member states are required to ensure new buildings and those undergoing renovation have ‘ducting infrastructure’ installed. More specifically, this means; ‘conduits for electric cables, for every parking space to enable the installation, at a later stage, of recharging points for electric vehicles,’ when a specific set of criteria is met.

So, there was a sense of relief when the European Commission confirmed the EPBD would be swept up in the renovation wave. ‘It is a good thing and it will be very complementary with the alternative-fuels infrastructure directive, because it is going to be private and public at the same time.’ Ensuring EVs are supported by a fully-functioning charging network will require pushing for advances on both the private and public front.

For EU member states, these directives like the EPBD act as baseline targets, which they can build upon and even exceed. Verstraeten explained that in France, the obligation to upgrade infrastructure was extended to existing buildings. Meanwhile, with its relatively high rate of EVs and contrastingly low number of garages, Amsterdam adopted a more tailored approach to installation. EV owners can ask for a charging station to be installed in the street if they are unable to charge at work or at home.

ChargeUp Europe

However, it appears current directives have resulted in fragmented approaches to infrastructure across Europe. ChargeUp, a new EV-charging industry alliance formed this year, wrote a letter to the European Commission stressing the need for a harmonised approach to the emerging market.

‘To date, we have noted that the existing AFID directive has been poorly implemented in parts of the EU and that its legal basis has led to ineffective enforcement,’ ChargeUp’s letter reads. ‘This has resulted in varying and inadequate EV-charging coverage, diverging national market approaches, different technology specifications and local technical requirements.’

The alliance pointed to fragmentation in metering requirements, mechanical-shutter specifications and concessions for charging along main traffic routes. This market confusion then becomes a barrier to investment, while lowering the potential of pan-European connectivity.

InfoGrafik Chargeup Empfehlungen
Source: ChargeUp

ChargeUp also pointed out that while the EPBD is a step in the right direction for EV charging, it is likely to have very limited outcomes due to its current exemptions. As part of the renovation wave, the group recommended revising infrastructure ambitions within the directive. ‘Increased cabling and ducting requirements need to come with increased ambition for the installation of charging points for the whole building stock, which also provides parking spaces,’ ChargeUp explained.

The legislative puzzle

Verstraeten explained that upcoming reviews will have to bring together all the different legislative puzzle pieces, like the AFID and EPBD, to form a full picture of how infrastructure can operate in harmony across Europe. Directives can set clearly defined standards and expectations, allowing providers like ChargePoint to get a better understanding of the market and where it is heading.

‘For us, if we have a clear target, it is actually easier to understand how the market is going to evolve and provide more security and certainty,’ Verstraeten said. This confidence will also extend to the consumer, where a greater understanding of the incoming infrastructure will provide a level of certainty and confidence, increasing the likelihood of EV adoption.

But because these directives do only act as targets, it still falls to individual member states to come up with goals to reach and agendas to implement. Verstraeten points out that, even then, there are still questions that cannot simply be answered by creating requirements at the EU level.

‘It is not only about having the obligation to put a charger in your garage if you live in a multi-family building,’ she said. ‘It is also about who is going to pay for that connection, and how the decision-making happens between the different owners of the buildings.’ While more granular issues like these will continue to cause ripples, it is only with a strong legislative foundation that Europe can hope to build EV infrastructure worthy of the electromobility tidal wave.

To find out how the electricity industry thinks the renovation wave will change EV charging, read Tom Geggus’ interview with the electricity industry association, Eurelectric.

Schwacke Newcomer November 2020 – Neue Modelle im Forecast

Nützlich und schön – Nicht ohne meinen Stromer

Im November haben wir wieder Restwertprognosen für interessante Fahrzeugneuerscheinungen in unsere Datenbank aufgenommen:

• LEVC TX
• Mercedes-Benz S-Klasse
• Opel Mokka
• VW Caddy
• Škoda Enyaq & VW ID.4

LEVC TX – London calling

Der chinesische Geely-Konzern ist hierzulande bei automobilen Laien nicht vielen bekannt. Das ändert sich aber nach und nach. Die Herangehensweise, bekannte europäische Marken wie Volvo, Lotus oder den bankrotten britischen Taxibauer LTI aufzukaufen und neue Marken wie Polestar oder Lynk & Co zu etablieren, zeigt wie ambitioniert der Konzern aus der 9-Millionen-Metropole Hangzhou ist. Und spätestens seit dem medienwirksamen Ein- und Aufstieg zum größten Einzelaktionär der Daimler AG dürfte klar sein, dass die Zeiten von China-exklusiven Plagiaten aus dem Land des Lächelns vorbei sind. Längst kommt viel Hochtechnologie zum Einsatz und macht auch hier aus der etwas angestaubten Droschken-Schmiede „London Taxi International“ die „London Electric Vehicle Company“. Die charmante einzigartige Form bleibt beim TX erhalten, aber darunter werkt nun – nicht zuletzt wegen der Fahrverbote in Britanniens Hauptstadt – ein E-Motor mit Range-Extender. Auch das Lenkrad kommt aktuellen Volvo-Fahrern verdächtig bekannt vor. Seine Herkunft kann die als „Shuttle“ bezeichnete Version mit insgesamt sechs Passagiersitzen aber dennoch nicht verleugnen. Ein Kleintransporter auf gleicher Basis ist ebenfalls im Anmarsch. Lässt man das charmante, ein bisschen retro anmutende, ungewöhnliche Konzept mal außen vor, bleibt ein robustes aber eben auch sehr spezielles zweckorientiertes Fahrzeug mit modernem Antrieb und – sagen wir – robuste Interieur. Für die Passagiere der hinteren Sitzreihe ist bei hochgeklappten gegenläufigen Jump-Seats der Fußraum enorm und die Sitze über die gegenläufig öffnenden Türen sehr gut zu erreichen. Das ist vor allem dem Umstand geschuldet, dass hinter den Passagieren kein Gepäckabteil mehr stört, aber dann neben dem Fahrer Platz finden muss. So erschließt sich einem die höchst ungewöhnliche Ausstattungsoption „Sonnenblende für Kofferraum“. Hinter der Heckklappe verbirgt sich lediglich das Reserverad und minimaler Stauraum. Auch sonst setzt sich das ungewöhnliche Konzept in viel Hartplastik und Ausstattungsdetails fort. Beispielsweise sind einige Innenraumelemente und Griffe zwecks schnellen Findens in „Signalfalbe“ gelb, oder gar deren Beschriftung in Blindenschrift und es gibt eine Trennscheibe mit Gegensprechanlage. Für private Zwecke ist das Konzept weniger praktikabel. So wird die Zielgruppe sich neu wie gebraucht vor allem aus Anwendern mit häufigem Kurzstrecken-Personentransport speisen und nur in Ausnahmefällen absolute Fans im Alltag überzeugen. Taxler, Vereine, Fahrdienste oder Ride-Sharing-Anbieter kommen einem da spontan in den Sinn und honorieren sicher z.B. auch die werkseitig lieferbaren Rollstuhlhilfen. Größtes Manko dürfte für viele aber der Neupreis sein. Brutto mindestens etwas über 70.000€ sind eine Ansage. Zwar hat es der TX so gerade noch in die BAFA-Liste der förderfähigen Elektro-Fahrzeuge geschafft, aber das Niveau liegt gleichauf mit dem Einstiegspreis des deutlich größeren und anspruchsvolleren Mercedes EQV. Auch die relativ begrenzte Batteriegarantie von 5 Jahren statt der bei E-Fahrzeugen häufigen 8 ist weniger überzeugend. Unbezahlbar bleibt aber der Charme und
Werbewert des „Hinguckers“ und wird zusammen mit den vielen cleveren Details sicher manchen für sich einnehmen.

Mercedes-Benz S-Klasse – Krone der Schöpfung

Auch die neue Baureihe W223 der „Sonder-Klasse“ trifft das gleiche Schicksal wie seine 10 Vorgänger. Sie trägt einen beinahe dynastischen Namen und muss die daran geknüpften maximalen Erwartungen erfüllen. Auf den ersten Blick ist das voll gelungen, die Verarbeitungsqualität ist über jeden Zweifel erhaben und sogar der cw-Wert liegt auf einem beeindruckenden Bestwert-Niveau, gleichauf mit dem Porsche Taycan bei 0,22. Technisch gesehen bietet die S-Klasse traditionell – zumindest optional – alles, was bei vielen anderen erst in den kommenden Generationen und später in anderen Segmenten Einzug halten wird. Vieles davon – wie die ausgeklügelten Augmented Reality Funktionen – findet mittlerweile digital statt und der Luxus hat insgesamt seinen Preis. Die Basis-Version ist ca. 6% teurer geworden und rückt damit nahe an die sechsstellige Preisschallgrenze heran. Angemessen ausgestattet liegt sie in der Regel sowieso weit darüber. Wer drei Jahre warten kann, muss nur noch knapp die Hälfte zur Anschaffung davon einplanen, was einem Wertverlust im Gegenwert einer kleinen Eigentumswohnung entspricht. Man ist dann eben auch nicht mehr unter den normalerweise ca. 8.000 stolzen Erstbesitzern, die die Stuttgarter üblicherweise im ersten Jahr nach Modelleinführung in Deutschland beliefern. Bei aller Begeisterung für die exzellent ausgestatteten S 500 Vorführwagen, die man derzeit überall in den Medien sieht, darf man aber nicht vergessen, dass der Großteil der Käufer sich bei den „kleinen“ 286PS-Dieseln bedient und längst nicht die ganze 63-seitige Preisliste abarbeitet. Die S-Klasse ist dennoch wieder ein kleines Meisterstück geworden, das uns relativ selten in der Marktbeobachtung begegnen wird. Häufiger aber vermutlich immer noch als dem zukünftig vollelektrischen und futuristischen Bruder EQS. Also auch in diesem recht konservativen Segment ist viel Bewegung.

Opel Mokka – Kein X mehr für ein E vorgemacht

Seit die neue französische Mutter PSA Opel und Vauxhall übernommen hat, ist entwicklungs- und design-technisch eine Menge passiert in Rüsselsheim. Der Mokka – jetzt wieder ohne ‚X‘ – schlägt dabei ein neues Kapitel in puncto Optik auf. Waren sein(e) Vorgänger eher klassisch gezeichnete Kompakt-SUV ist der neue ein dynamisch moderner, extrovertierter Crossover, der vor allem mit der „Vizor“-Optik an der Frontpartie auffällt. Den älteren oder historisch interessierten Opel-Beobachtern kommt unweigerlich der 70er-Jahre Look des Manta A in den Sinn – und das muss kein Manko sein! Zukünftig ist das die Designsprache der Marke wie man am kürzlich renovierten Crossland – jetzt ebenfalls ohne ‚X‘ – erkennen kann. Kleiner Wermutstropfen: Mit Astra und Corsa/Insignia stehen damit nun 3 Exterieur-Generationen als Neuwagen in den Showrooms des Handels und sorgen insbesondere beim erst Ende 2021 zu ersetzenden Volumenmodell Astra für ein zunehmend angegrautes Äußeres. Der neue Mokka jedenfalls ist ein gut ausgestatteter frischer Beitrag zum B-SUV Segment. Viele Optionen gibt es aber nicht mehr. Das meiste wird über die Auswahl von Ausstattungslinien abgedeckt und kann durch Pakete ergänzt werden. Wie seine französischen Plattformbrüder ergibt sich hier nun auch die Möglichkeit, einen vollelektrischen Antriebsstrang anzubieten, dafür ist das Angebot von Dieselmotoren auf einen geschrumpft. Die PSA-Zugehörigkeit merkt man ohnehin besonders an den Motoren. Die Emissionswerte der Verbrenner sind mit den neuen Aggregaten auf einem völlig anderen Niveau als beim Vorgänger. Allerdings ist der steuerliche Vorteil hierzulande angesichts der im europäischen Umfeld sehr zurückhaltenden CO2-Besteuerung dadurch nicht unbedingt üppig. Der geringere Verbrauch ist da schon eher ein Argument. Für eine profitable Gebrauchtwagenvermarktung sind die Voraussetzungen also gut, aber die Realität von Handel und Käufererwartungen muss dem erst noch Rechnung tragen. Der Vorgänger mit zuletzt überdurchschnittlichem Anteil an günstigen Handels- und Vermietzulassungen sollte dabei nicht als Orientierung dienen.

VW Caddy – Vielseitigkeitsprüfung

Der Caddy hat entwicklungstechnisch eine wechselvolle Geschichte hinter sich. Gestartet im Gewand eines Golf I Pickup, über ein Rebranding von Seat Inca und Škoda Pick-up zeigt er seit 2003 sein zwischenzeitlich zweimal facegeliftetes heutiges Äußeres basierend auf dem damaligen Touran. Nun folgt die offiziell fünfte Generation, zeitgemäß auf MQB-Plattform und dezent weiterentwickelter Optik. Das Segment der sogenannten Hochdachkombis kommt in der Regel sowohl in PKW-artiger Manier daher, als auch als leichte Nutzfahrzeugvariante verglast der verblecht. So auch beim Caddy. Der robustere Ursprung ließ sich in der Vergangenheit vor allem Innen oft nur schlecht kaschieren, was übrigens auch für die Wettbewerber gilt. Aber der Vorteil war die durch lange Produktionszyklen und dem bereits erwähnten Rebranding hohe Profitabilität. Der Caddy musste sich da bislang immer alleine behaupten, ganz im Gegensatz zu der PSA-Toyota-Kooperation und der Renault-Mercedes Genspende. Das wird sich aber nun ändern. Durch die Nutzfahrzeugkooperation mit Ford wird der neue Caddy in den nächsten Jahren als Transit/Tourneo Connect wiedergeboren. Innen ist er aber ganz VW. Der Hannoveraner erbt eine ganze Reihe von vertrauten PKW-Teilen aus dem Konzernregal. Dennoch scheinen die Linien alle etwas grober gezeichnet und die Materialien gefühlt etwas abwaschbarer und kratzempfindlicher als im Golf oder Touran. Der klassischen Zielgruppe dürfte das entgegenkommen, geht es doch bei den eher praktisch orientierten Kunden um Nutzwert und Preis-Leistung. Momentan fehlen dabei noch die Langversionen und Benzinmotoren, die vor allem bei den PKW-Kunden zwischen 30 und 40% der Zulassungen ausmachen. Der Caddy ist aber eher ein Dauerläufer, als ein Sprinter und daher, nicht zuletzt wegen seines soliden Rufes, vor allem in späteren Jahren gut wiederzuvermarkten.

Škoda Enyaq & VW ID.4 – Ungleiche Brüder

Der VW-Konzern hat seine elektrischen Modelleinführungen sehr gezielt und mit Bedacht orchestriert. Starteten die Premiummarken Audi und Porsche in den entsprechenden klientelgerechten Segmenten, folgte die Volumenmarke VW mit einem „Golf“ namens ID.3. Jetzt darf Škoda mit einem rationalen, aber gutaussehenden SUV-Modell punkten. Um den aktuellen Drive in der europäischen E-Zulassungsentwicklung zu nutzen, nimmt der Enyaq seinen VW Bruder ID.4 mit leichter Verzögerung mit auf den Weg. Und der Vollständigkeit halber komplettiert den Elektro-Erstaufschlag der PKW-Konzernmarken Seat oder eigentlich Cupra mit einem emotionalen und dynamischen ID.3 Geschwister namens El-Born. Auf den beiden aktuellen Newcomern liegt dabei besonderes Augenmerk, da mengenmäßig bei beiden Marken diese Bauform längst dominiert. Mit dem Radstand eines Tiguan Allspace oder Kodiaq fallen die MEB-Karossen vor allem auf der Rückbank entsprechend üppig aus. Ungewöhnlich für Nicht-Allradler ist bei beiden allerdings der bauartbedingte Heckantrieb. Aus dem macht dann ein zusätzlicher E-Motor an der Vorderachse optional einen „Geländewagen“. Den Unterschied von Tscheche und Zwickauer macht aber nicht nur die Produktionsstätte aus, sondern vor allem Preis und Optik. Dies entspricht gewissermaßen der von Konzernchef Diess angemahnten stärkeren Markendifferenzierung. Enyaq ist das geringfügig konventionellere, aber besser grundausgestattete Modell, während der ID etwas mehr Innovation und Souveränität bei höherem Preis anbietet. Das gilt innen wie außen. Während Škoda sich drinnen am neuen Octavia orientiert, bleibt der ID.4 vom Layout her seinem kleinen Bruder 3 verbunden. Ein deutliches Plus für den üppigen Aufpreis stellt aber die Materialqualität dar, die viele beim ID-Erstling schmerzlich vermissten. Interessant wird es überdies wenn die RS bzw. GTX Versionen mit voraussichtlich über 300PS auf den Markt kommen. Dann erhält Teslas Model Y nicht mehr nur aus der Premium-Welt Gegenwind.

Schwacke Insights November 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Viele Werte liegen derzeit buchstäblich im grünen Bereich für die 3jährigen Gebrauchten. Standzeiten sind deutlich rückläufig, aktuelle Marktpreise sind zwar spürbar unter Vorjahr, stabilisieren sich aber. Grund hierfür dürfte das für Verkäufer noch sehr vorteilhafte Verhältnis von Angebot und Nachfrage sein. Die Saldi der Neuzugänge und Verkäufe deuten aber auf eine Eintrübung der weiteren Entwicklung hin. Ebenfalls etwas pessimistischer die Situation und der Ausblick der elektrifizierten Antriebe. Zwar ist die Lage nach einem enttäuschenden Wertverlauf der vergangenen 1-2 Jahre aktuell solide. Langfristig treffen aber rapide wachsende Mengen auf einen zögerlich wachsenden und weniger stark geförderten Bedarf. Bei den Schnelldrehern dominieren Cabrios, die nun azyklisch willige Abnehmer finden. Der erste Plug-In Hybrid Audi A3 e-tron hat nun den Sprung in die Top 5 geschafft!

 

Insights November 2020 Preview

EU new-car registrations declined 7.8% in October

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King explores the latest figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) as second-wave lockdowns bring more downturns.

New-car registrations in the EU declined 7.8% year-on-year in October.  Volumes fell from 1,034,669 units to 953,615. This marks a return to the market contractions suffered every month in 2020, except for the modest growth in September. The decline is an improvement on the dramatic double-digit declines suffered in March to June, and again in August, but does not bode well as the region contends with a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and lockdowns.

EU new-car registrations, year-on-year % change, January to October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD)

EU-Neuzulassungen, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Januar bis Oktober 2020 und seit Jahresbeginn (YTD)

Source: ACEA

All EU new-car markets contracted last month – apart from Ireland and Romania, which enjoyed year-on-year growth of 5.4% and 17.6% respectively. This renewed EU-wide downturn was to be expected given the year-on-year declines already reported in France, Italy, Spain, and even Germany in October.

Single-digit declines were reported in France, Germany and Italy, although the decline in Italy was just 0.2% and the result would have been positive (up by about 4%) had there not been one less working day. This follows the 9.5% growth in new-car registrations in September, due to the new government incentives that came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). While the market still contracted in that month, demand improved but delivery times delayed many registrations until September and October.

On a less positive note, there was a double-digit decline of new-car registrations in Spain in October. The MOVES II and RENOVE schemes were introduced in July, and the new-car market saw a 1.1% increase in the month. Since then, however, there have been respective monthly declines of 10.1% and 13.5% in August and September, and now 21.0% in October. It is therefore clear that weak underlying consumer demand is the problem in the country. Measures to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 infections, and the calculation of the registration tax based on WLTP emissions figures from January 2021, are further complicating the recovery.

New-car registrations, year-on-year % change, October 2020 and year-to-date (YTD) 2020

Pkw-Neuzulassungen, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in %, Oktober 2020 und seit Jahresbeginn (YTD) 2020

Source: ACEA

In the smaller EU member states, year-on-year contractions of more than 20% were reported in seven markets, including Finland, Slovakia and Slovenia. However, some markets were far more resilient, with downturns of less than 5% reported in Austria and Hungary.

Lockdown negativity replaces pent-up positivity

In the first 10 months of 2020, registrations of new cars in the EU fell by 26.8%. Even the market downturn in October continued the improvement in the year-to-date contractions, which bottomed out at 41.5% in the first five months of the year. The greatest loss among the major EU markets was in Spain, which has contracted by 36.8% in the year-to-date, ahead of only Croatia (down 43.5%) and Portugal (down 37.1%).

As the positive contribution of pent-up demand is ultimately exhausted, the second wave of COVID-19 infections, the severity, duration and geographic spread of lockdowns, and the economic fallout of COVID-19, will define how new-car markets perform in the remainder of 2020 and beyond. The key to recovery revolves around countries agreeing budgets for 2021, and improving economic certainty and consumer confidence to boost spending. The allocation of aid resources provided by the European Recovery Fund, agreed on 21 July, will also play a pivotal role in shaping the forward outlook for Europe’s new-car markets.

Manufacturer performance

Among the leading European carmakers, the BWW Group, Ford, Mazda, Mitsubishi and Nissan all registered more than 10% fewer new cars in the EU in October 2020 than in October 2019. Mazda suffered the greatest loss, with EU registrations down 38.0% year-on-year.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and the Renault Group, however, managed to register 3.9% and 0.2% more cars respectively in the EU than in October 2019. All other major manufacturers suffered single-digit declines of between 6.2% (Honda) and 9.7% (Jaguar Land Rover) in the month.

Across Europe, manufacturers with a strong electric-vehicle portfolio are expected to perform better than those without as electrically-chargeable vehicle (EV) consumers are less likely to be tempted by used cars instead of new. This is because they tend to be less price-sensitive buyers, but there is also limited availability of the latest electric models on the used-car market. In the year-to-date, Toyota is the best-performing manufacturer in the EU, albeit with registrations down 16.9%, supporting this hypothesis.

In a new video, Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry talks through the latest registration figures in the big four EU markets and the UK.