Fuel Type: Plug-In Hybrid (PHEV)

Strengere Anforderungen für Zuschüsse bei Plug-In Hybriden

Andreas Geilenbrügge, Head of Valuations and Insights bei Schwacke, untersucht, welche Auswirkungen die bevorstehenden Änderungen bestimmter Fahrzeugsubventionen in Deutschland haben könnten.

Seit 2020 im Zuge der Pandemie die staatliche Innovationsprämie verdoppelt wurde, gehen in Deutschland die subventionierten Antriebsarten BEV und PHEV durch die Decke. Die Zulassungen vollelektrischer Modelle haben sich 2020 im Vergleich zu 2019 mehr als verdreifacht, Plug-Ins sogar fast verfünffacht. Und der Neuwagentrend geht für die Stromer in 2021 immer noch bergauf.

Nun hatte die Bundesregierung sich frühzeitig darauf verständigt, dass dieses Prämienniveau bis Ende 2025 beibehalten und entsprechende Finanzierung bereitgestellt wird. Das zugehörige Förder-Regularium allerdings ist Deutschland-typisch komplex. Neben der unterschiedlichen Förderung von günstigen (Nettolistenpreis unter 40.000€) und teureren Modellen (Nettolistenpreis bis 65.000€) hat man noch weitere Bedingungen eingebaut, von denen eine nun ab 2022 einigen wenigen Modellen den Förderanspruch eventuell versagen wird.

Für Plug-In Hybride steigt die reinelektrische Mindestreichweite von bisher 40km auf 60km für Fahrzeuganschaffungen ab dem 1. Januar 2022. Zwar gilt immer noch die Förderfähigkeit, wenn dabei maximal 50g CO2-Ausstoß pro 100km erreicht werden, aber es gibt Fahrzeuge, die aktuell diesen CO2-Ausstoß übertreffen, während sie die derzeit gültigen 40km Reichweite schaffen.

Für die Kombination weniger als 60km Reichweite und mehr als 50g CO2 ist es also ab nächstem Jahr vorbei mit 4.500 bzw. 3.750€ Zuschuss vom Staat. Betroffen sind allerdings eher wenige schwere Fahrzeuge, die sich in beiden Disziplinen – Reichweite und Emission – buchstäblich schwertun und unterhalb der 65.000€ Listenpreisgrenze liegen. Es betrifft einzelne Modellversionen sowohl von Audi, Ford, Jaguar, Jeep, Mercedes, Land Rover, Volvo und VW. Darunter manche Exoten wie den Wrangler oder Explorer, aber eben auch Versionen gängigerer Modelle wie z.B. den Q8, F-Pace, GLC, Velar, XC90 und Touareg. Ob es so weit kommt, liegt auch in den Händen der Hersteller.

Es müssten rechtzeitig neue elektrische Reichweiten homologiert werden, die die 60km übertreffen, was technisch kein größeres Thema sein dürfte. Allerdings wird man sicher den Taschenrechner zücken und die Kosten für die Homologation gegenrechnen mit einerseits der Hinnahme möglicher Stückzahleinbußen durch die betroffenen Versionen oder alternativ für diese Modelle zusätzliche Vertriebsunterstützung bereitzustellen. Was wir aber vermutlich beobachten werden, sind eifrige Zulassungen dieser Modelle zum Ende des Jahres, um den Förderanspruch zu erhalten und die Produktion auf die Straße zu bringen.

Die Restwerte wird ein möglicher Wegfall der Prämie vermutlich nur geringfügig beeinflussen, da in diesen Preislagen der staatliche Zuschuss eher einen kleineren Effekt hat. Schon eher die kurzfristig anwachsenden Mengen auf dem Gebrauchtmarkt, verursacht durch die voraussichtlichen Zulassungsaktionen Ende des Jahres, könnten je nach Größenordnung Volumen- und damit Preisdruck erzeugen. In jedem Fall wird es interessant zu beobachten, was mit diesen Modellen passiert.


Dieser Inhalt wird Ihnen präsentiert von Autovista24.

Grüner Banner von Autovista24

Schwacke Insights Juni 2021 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Der Mai reflektiert im Aufwärtstrend von Preisen und Standzeiten die derzeitige Angebotsknappheit. Dabei kommt den dreijährigen Gebrauchten zugute, dass der zugehörige Erstzulassungsjahrgang 2018 bei gewerblichen Zulassungen etwas schwächelte, bevor sich 2019 zu einem All-time High aufschwang. Außerdem sind im vergangenen Jahr in Anbetracht der Lockdowns überdurchschnittlich viele Gebrauchte aller Alter schneller abgeflossen und sorgen dieses Jahr für allseits niedrige Bestände und einen Verkäufermarkt. Das Prognoseniveau hat sich austariert und wird sich mit positiver Tendenz stabilisieren. Lediglich elektrifizierte Antriebe leiden weiter unter Preisdruck durch hochsubventionierte Neuwagen. Die Sommersaison sorgt dafür, dass nun 3 von 5 Schnelldrehern Cabrios sind und der 2er BMW erstmalig in signifikanten Stückzahlen schnell den Besitzer wechselt.

Hier geht es zum Download: Schwacke Insights Juni 2021

Schwacke Insights Juni

Carmakers successfully pooled emissions to meet 2020 EU targets

Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King investigates the emissions performance of major carmakers in the EU in 2020. In this first part, King discusses pooling and focuses on manufacturers that successfully spread their emissions over a larger fleet average.

The issue of CO2 targets has given many carmakers a headache in recent years. Until 2016, many relied on diesel engines to help them achieve their goals. Yet, the collapse in trust and sales of this technology left manufacturers scrambling for alternatives, especially as consumers switched to the higher CO2-emitting petrol cars and SUVs.

The best option was to push ahead with plans for both hybrid and electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs). Some carmakers were more advanced in developing these technologies, which led to several manufacturers combining their fleets into pools, spreading out CO2-emission figures over a larger area and reducing the chances of a fine.

Manufacturers established a number of pools to help meet their 2020 and 2021 targets, and all but one was successful last year. Volkswagen Group, part of the biggest pool by market share, missed its projection by a small margin, just 0.5g. However, every carmaker managed to reduce their average fleet emissions, compared to 2019.

Running the numbers

From 2021, the average emissions target for new cars registered in the EU is set at 95g/km CO2. For every 1g/km of CO2 a manufacturer exceeds its average emissions target by, it is fined €95, multiplied by its volume of new-car registrations in the preceding year.

However, the highest-polluting 5% of new cars registered in 2020 are excluded from the 2021 fines calculations, which serves as a transitional phase for carmakers. Based on analysis of data distribution, Autovista Group calculates that this reduced average CO2-emissions figures by about 7%. From 2022 onwards, however, full compliance of all new cars is required (i.e. new cars registered in 2021 onwards).

Pool party

The idea of a pool is simple. A carmaker struggling to meet targets reaches out for help to those who are more successfully managing their CO2 output. Once in the pool, both sets of emissions figures are combined and spread out over an expanded fleet, reducing the average and, in most cases, helping the struggling company achieve its target and avoid a fine. The compliant manufacturer will likely receive financial compensation for its help.

Infographic

Of all the major manufacturers in Europe, Toyota was in the strongest position to meet its emissions target in 2020. Compared to their 2017 level, the Japanese group only had to reduce their average fleet emissions by 9g CO2/km (9%). The manufacturer has not revealed detailed emissions figures but has confirmed it met its target, supported by strong demand for its hybrid-electric vehicles. Therefore, the OEM was able to help fellow Japanese manufacturer Mazda, which only launched its first BEV, the MX-30, in 2020.

Similarly, Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi pooled their emissions. The Renault Group itself benefitted from the Zoe BEV and its extended range of E-Tech hybrid and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) variants of models such as the ClioCaptur and Megane. Nissan’s fleet-average emissions were aided by the Leaf BEV and, combined, Renault-Nissan was only 2g/km short of its target in the first half of 2020.

In order to comply with European emissions targets going forward, Mitsubishi Motors will source models from Renault that meet regulatory requirements. ‘Starting 2023, Mitsubishi Motors will sell two “sister models” produced in Groupe Renault plants, which are based on the same platforms but with differentiations, reflecting the Mitsubishi brand’s DNA,’ Renault revealed.

Recall issues

As an example of the fine lines that manufacturers walk to meet their emissions targets, Ford was forced to consider pooling towards the end of 2020. The carmaker issued a recall of its Kuga plug-in hybrid (PHEV) in August of last year. As the carmaker did not have a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) in its fleet, it was heavily reliant on the PHEV to lower CO2 levels.

Ford had already faced a higher mountain to climb, with its 2017 emissions figures showing it needed to reduce CO2 output across its fleet by 26g/km (21%). The recall led the manufacturer to announce it was considering pooling, in order to meet its targets.

‘The current issues with the Kuga PHEV, resulting in a stop-ship and stop-sale have affected our plan to meet the EU’s 2020 emissions regulations for passenger vehicles on our own,’ Ford said to Autovista Group at the time. ‘Therefore, just as many other OEMs have done in Europe, we now intend to join an open pool with other OEMs for passenger vehicles.’

Ford entered into an agreement with Volvo in November. Although the US carmaker has not provided detailed figures, it did meet its 2020 target, likely thanks to this pool.

Sought after

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) faced the biggest challenge to comply with European emissions targets. The US-Italian group needed to lower their emissions by 29g/km (24%) compared to 2017 levels. This largely explains why FCA pooled its emissions figures with US BEV manufacturer Tesla.

The move brought FCA’s average CO2 emissions down by offsetting the company’s petrol and diesel vehicles from Fiat, Jeep, Alfa Romeo and Maserati against the zero-emission outputs of Tesla’s BEVs. CEO Mike Manley already suggested in August 2019 that the Italian carmaker would be compliant because of the regulatory credit deal with Tesla. Honda was subsequently brought into this pool too.

Tesla is the largest BEV-only carmaker in Europe, having entered the market in 2008 with its limited production Roadster, before launching its first BEV sedan, the Model S, in 2012. The manufacturer built up a base of BEV models while other carmakers continued to promote ICE and was well-placed to capitalise when consumers started considering alternative options. Therefore, its CO2 credits would provide a good opportunity for carmakers to reduce their overall levels. While the US company sells fewer vehicles than bigger players in the automotive market, average emissions across its entire fleet will be no higher than zero.

The FCA annual report states that CO2 emissions data for last year is not yet available but: ‘the 2020 result is expected to move toward the 95g CO2/km EU average target due to the adoption of a multi-faceted approach which leveraged conventional technologies, high-voltage electrification, pooling arrangement contribution and compliance rules for 2020.’

‘The quantity of CO2 emissions in 2021 will be affected not only by market evolution (such as the expected reduction of diesel market share) but also by the commercialisation of low-emission and electrified vehicles. Finally, according to applicable EU regulations, current pooling arrangements for emissions compliance for passenger cars entered into by FCA are expected to apply in 2021,’ FCA added.

However, at the start of 2021, FCA merged with PSA Group to form Stellantis. CEO of the new manufacturing group, Carlos Tavares, has since been reported to have terminated the agreement with Tesla. As PSA Group met its emission targets in 2020, and as FCA’s figures will now merge with these, the company should be in a position to achieve its CO2 goals at the end of this year.

In the next instalments of this series, Neil King will explore those manufacturers who met their emissions targets on their own and carmakers who failed to reduce CO2 sufficiently, whether they pooled or not.

Schwacke Insights Mai 2021 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Im April zog das Gebrauchtwagengeschäft wieder merklich an. Das fast ausgeglichene Mengensaldo beschert geringen Preisdruck und insgesamt eine leichte Aufwärtstendenz durch Zulauf wertstabiler
Fahrzeuge und optimistischer Einpreisung. Die Prognosen liegen weiterhin im Minus aufgrund der Talfahrt des Preisniveaus der vergangenen Jahre. Da reguliert sich erst langsam das Gefüge zwischen aktuellem Preisniveau und Vorausschau. Im Bereich der Elektro-Antriebe sind in diesem Alterssegment kleine Mengen am Markt, die ab 2022 deutlich und dann rasant anwachsen werden. Die aktuelle Preissituation ist also noch nicht von Volumen aber von günstigen Neu- und jungen Gebrauchtwagen beeinträchtigt. Saisongemäß kommt mit dem Beetle nun auch ein Cabrio in die TOP 5 der Schnelldreher. Es finden Cayenne Diesel zügig Käufer – insbesondere, weil diese Antriebsart in 2018 eingestellt wurde.

Hier geht es zum Download: Schwacke Insights Mai 2021

Insights Mai 2021

Are EVs as green as they seem?

The last year has been dominated by a single health emergency that brought the world to its knees. But for decades, scientists and campaigners have been warning of another impending crisis. As governments put environmental regulations in place, carmakers are transitioning into clean mobility companies. Spearheading this change, electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) appear poised to take the helm from internal combustion engines (ICEs). But for this handover to work, these electric models must prove to be environmentally advantageous. Autovista Group Daily Brief Journalist Tom Geggus asks, are EVs as green as they seem?

According to the European Commission, passenger cars are responsible for around 12% of total EU CO2 emissions, putting the automotive industry in the green spotlight. A poll of 15 European cities recently revealed nearly two-thirds of urban residents back a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. OEMs and mobility providers are also supporting a faster transition to zero-emission transport. Volvo Cars, Uber and LeasePlan are among a group of companies calling for an end date to new combustion car purchases in Europe no later than 2035. This would leave a large ICE-sized hole for EVs to plug. But considering its entire lifetime, is an electrified vehicle that much cleaner than a petrol or diesel-powered one?

Significantly smaller footprint

Published in March last year, research from the universities of Cambridge, Exeter and Nijmegen showed that in 95% of the world, an electric car has a significantly smaller carbon footprint than one powered by fossil fuels. Dr Florian Knobloch, University of Cambridge fellow, German Federal Ministry policy advisor, and the paper’s lead author, spoke with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief about the findings.

The academic team carried out extensive life-cycle assessments of emissions produced through vehicle use, as well as production and waste processing. ‘When you look at the production stage, it takes significantly more energy and material input due to the battery,’ Dr Knobloch said. But the EV then makes up for this larger burden across its entire lifetime thanks to far lower running emissions.

‘It is a myth that electric cars do increase emissions, even on a lifetime basis,’ he said. ‘In most parts of the world already, today EVs will decrease emissions, even if you factor in everything from production to recycling.’

‘A snowball effect’

When dividing the world into 59 regions, the research revealed that in 53, electric cars are already less emissions-intensive than one powered by petrol or diesel. These regions include Europe, the US and China. In fact, lifetime emissions from EVs were found to be 70% lower than petrol cars in countries like France and Sweden, where large amounts of electricity are generated through renewable and nuclear sources. However, the same cannot be said for counties like Poland, where dependence on coal-fuelled power stations lingers.

But as grids worldwide are rewired with decarbonisation in mind, even these regions will see more reason to go electric. So, as EVs become increasingly efficient, they will outstrip ICEs which have already reached near-peak efficiency. Dr Knobloch points out that even with the inclusion of greener technology like biofuels, there is little chance for the carbon footprint of ICE vehilces to greatly improve.

This transition to electromobility does take time. Confidence in EVs still needs to build up: from the early adopters to the mainstream. ‘Every EV you buy now increases the chance of more EVs being bought in the future,’ Dr Knobloch explained. As consumers are exposed to an increasing number of EVs, a snowball effect will take place with confidence growing alongside adoption, encouraging more people to take the electric leap. The study projects that globally, half of cars on average could be electric by 2050. This would lower global CO2 emissions by up to 1.5 gigatons annually.

A comparative tool

In Europe, clean-transport campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E), found that electric cars emit on average almost three times less CO2 than their ICE equivalent. Again, this figure considers wider impact, including the sourcing of battery materials, electricity production, and even power-plant construction. To illustrate the difference between the lifetime emissions of EVs and ICEs, T&E created a tool to compare drive types, considering the year of purchase, vehicle type and location, as well as electricity used for battery production.

Lucien Mathieu, manager overseeing road vehicles and e-mobility analysis at T&E, spoke with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief. As the tool’s creator, he explained it aims to combat other bias analysis of electric-car emissions, that might rely on outdated data, particularly given the rapid advance of EV technology. Using the most up-to-date information, T&E’s tool reveals CO2 emissions per kilometre, as well as in tonnes over lifetime.

For example, comparing two medium-sized cars bought in 2020, T&E’s tool reveals the electric car, on average, is responsible for 90 grammes of CO2 per kilometre versus petrol with 253 grammes. Considering tonnes of CO2 over distance driven, the EV’s ‘carbon debt’ from production is paid off quite quickly thanks to its low-usage emissions. This compares starkly to an ICE car, which is far less efficient when converting its fuel into movement.

This canyon between EV and ICE only looks set to grow as battery technology continues to advance, while fossil-fuel cars have already achieved close to their peak efficiency. A T&E study recently calculated that an EV battery uses 30 kilograms of raw materials with recycling, compared to the 17,000 litres of petrol burned by the average car.

‘The valuable minerals mined to make electric-car batteries will be used and reused unlike those of oil,’ said Greg Archer, UK director of T&E. ‘Over its lifetime, an average-engined car would burn through a stack of oil barrels, 25 storeys high, creating about 40 tonnes of CO2 and worsening global warming. In comparison, only 30 kilograms of metals would be lost each time an electric-car battery is recycled – roughly the size of a football.’

This gap will increase as advancements drive down how much lithium is needed to make a battery by half over the next decade. Cobalt will drop by over three-quarters and nickel by around a fifth. So, as EVs develop, T&E plans to keep their tool updated with the latest available evidence, as well as expanding its scope to include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). But of course, EVs also benefit from technologies developing outside of their own powertrains.

Powering vehicles

At the end of last year, more than 3,500 European power companies, represented through the federation for the European electricity industry, Eurelectric, came out in support of a minimum 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. As more electricity generators and distributors throw their weight behind cleaner-energy solutions, including the use of more renewables, EVs can be expected to become greener.

Speaking with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief, Petar Georgiev, climate and E-mobility lead at Eurelectric, pointed to a larger picture when considering the energy behind EVs. ‘You do have to keep in mind what the actual carbon footprint is in different countries, at different times, and also how it is changing, because for us in the power sector, we clearly see that the grid is becoming cleaner and cleaner,’ he said. ‘But if we have to wait to have a fully renewable grid, and then only start to integrate renewables, that would probably be a very big mistake.’

Because an EV’s CO2 levels can be lowered long before its first charge, it makes sense to take a holistic approach to EV emissions and electricity usage. For example, manufacturers can opt for more efficient production methods, even incorporating renewables into the process. Furthermore, which cars plug into electromobility will be hugely important.

Eurelectric recently identified the electrification of Europe’s vehicle fleets as a ‘catalyst for clean mobility throughout the 2020s.’ The continent’s fleet is made up of 63 million cars, vans, buses, and trucks, operated by private companies or public authorities. The federation explained, however,  that despite only making up 20% of the parc, these vehicles account for 40% of all kilometres travelled. They also account for 50% of CO2 emissions from transport. ‘Electrification of car fleets can be a real game-changer,’ Kristian Ruby, secretary-general of Eurelectric said. ‘It comes with tangible reductions of total costs of ownership and CO2 emissions. So, it is a good deal both for fleet owners and society at large.’

While the electrification of vehicles contains the potential to reduce CO2 emissions dramatically, it is enormously dependent upon usage. So, when asked, ‘are EVs as green as they seem?’ the answer is yes, but adoption rates will determine their success.

Schwacke Insights April 2021 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

2021 zeigt weiterhin den Einfluss der Pandemie. Nach zwei schwachen Monaten sind im März Verkäufe wieder stark angezogen. Das aktuelle Bewertungsniveau ist aufgrund des geringen Bestandes insgesamt stabil bis leicht positiv. Die Prognosen folgen noch der Negativentwicklung des vergangenen Jahres. Auch Standzeiten sind bei Verbrennern vorteilhaft, was nicht zuletzt im nachlassenden Nachschub vergangener Jahre begründet liegt. Elektrifizierte Antriebe kämpfen dagegen in nahezu allen Parametern durch den andauernden prämienbedingten Neuwagenboom. Neu bei den Kurzstehern: Cayenne Diesel profitieren von Porsches Abkehr von Selbstzündern. Beim BMW i3 kommt nun das Facelift und die ‚s‘-Versionen zum Tragen. Die Smart-Benziner haben sich nicht signifikant verbessert, profitieren aber davon, dass frühere Schnelldreher in zu geringer Menge verkauft wurden, um ins Ranking zu kommen.

Hier geht es zum Download: Schwacke Insights April 2021

Insights April 2021

Launch Report: BMW iX3 – conventional and balanced electrification

The iX3 is BMW’s first pure-electric X model and is the most conventional, being effectively a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) version of the best-selling X3.

The iX3 offers good performance, with strong linear acceleration – as usual for a battery-electric vehicle (BEV). The model also strikes a good balance between power and battery capacity, with competitive electricity consumption. In terms of agility and dynamics, the iX3 is slightly better than its direct rivals overall. As the battery is located under the car, this also explains the good roadholding.

Standard equipment is comprehensive, including three-zone climate control, heated and powered front seats (with memory function on the driver’s side), BMW Teleservices and wireless phone charging. Safety features include emergency-assist and rear cross-traffic alert. The 458km range of the iX3 is second only to the Jaguar I-Pace’s 470km range, and it has the fastest charging time when connected to an 11kw AC wallbox, of 7.5 hours.

In addition to BMW’s strong brand image, the iX3 is supported by the company’s longer expertise in electrification. This started with the i3, which has been on the market since 2013, and was followed by plug-in hybrid (PHEV) engines offered on different models in the range, including one for the brand’s X family.

As the first conventional BEV from BMW, the iX3 compares well against key competitors. It is offered at an attractive entry price point and the popularity of both the brand and the X3 range should ensure plenty of demand. Given that the iX3 is very close to the X3, BMW’s D-SUV range is now available in diesel, petrol, PHEV and BEV versions.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the BMW iX3 in France, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast RVs and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Spain introduces MOVES III incentive scheme

Spain introduced the new MOVES III incentive scheme for electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) on 10 April, which includes hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCHVs) for the first time.

All FCHVs, as well as battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that cost less than €45,000 (excluding VAT), are eligible, with the price ceiling rising to €53,000 for vehicles with eight or nine seats. Used EVs that are less than nine months old are also eligible.

It is worth noting that across Spain and the major European markets, the residual-value (RV) disadvantage of BEVs compared to petrol cars has widened since March 2020. The greatest divergence has occurred in Germany, where the gap has widened by just under four percentage points (pp) and stood at 10 pp in January 2021. The divergence accelerated notably following the introduction of enhanced incentives on 1 July 2020.

Cautionary tale

This is a cautionary tale for Spain as it rolls out this new scheme. All governments should look into providing incentives to encourage used-BEV ownership, but these do not need to be straightforward purchase incentives. Lower energy costs for charging BEVs and visible expansion of the charging network would also be powerful signals.

‘The biggest potential risk for pressure on RVs stems from the purchase incentives for EVs. A positive and moderating effect comes from the longer-term ownership tax reduction and a lack of company-car tax benefit,’ commented Ana Azofra, head of valuations and insights at Autovista Group in Spain.

As detailed in the table below, private buyers of EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km are entitled to a subsidy of €4,500 in Spain, which is reduced to €2,500 for EVs with a range of 30 to 90 km.

IDAE MOVES III incentive scheme 1

Source: IDAE

For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the incentives amount to €2,900 for EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km, reducing to €1,700 with a range of 30 to 90 km. For large companies, the incentives are €2,200 for EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km and €1,600 with a range of 30 to 90 km.

MOVES III incentive scheme

Source: IDAE

The scheme runs until the end of 2023, with an initial budget of €400 million, rising to €800 million dependent on its success. This is significantly higher than the original funding allocation of €100 million for the MOVES II scheme that came into effect in June 2020, which the Spanish government extended by €20 million early in March.

‘We have chosen to start with those actions that families, SMEs, the self-employed and, ultimately, the entire fabric of the country can benefit from,’ explained Teresa Ribera, vice president of Spain and minister for the ecological transition and the demographic challenge, in the presentation of the MOVES III plan.

‘It is crucial to keep pace with the actions promoting the value chain of the automotive sector in our country, with the creation of employment and new business models,’ Ribera added.

Unlikely improvement

The new incentives are slightly higher for private buyers but lower for companies. However, the benefits are much greater if a used vehicle over seven years of age is traded in for scrappage. For private buyers, the incentive increases up to €7,000, and up to €4,000 for SMEs and €3,000 for large companies.

‘MOVES III constitutes the most ambitious line of support for electric mobility that our country has proposed and will allow and contribute to the economic reactivation in the short term, accompanying the necessary transformation of the industrial model of our country with the economic and environmental objectives,’ Ribera said.

Nevertheless, the new scheme is unlikely to significantly improve the fortunes of Spain’s new-car market. Registrations grew 128% in March compared with a year ago, but the comparison is distorted by the pandemic. Spanish dealerships closed from 14 March 2020. A more realistic comparison with March 2019 shows the new-car market contracting by 30%. Sales in the first quarter dropped 14.9% against last year’s figures, and were 41.3% down on figures from two years ago.

EV uptake should increase, especially among private buyers, but without an improvement in consumer confidence, and a return of tourism, the Spanish market will continue to struggle overall. Autovista Group forecasts that demand will recover from the 32% loss in 2020, albeit by only 6% to about 900,000 units in 2021.

German registrations start slow recovery in March

New-car registrations in Germany increased 35.9% in March, according to the latest figures from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA).

The figure was inflated due to the country’s first COVID-19 lockdown closing dealerships from mid-March in the previous year. However, at that time, registrations performed well compared to other countries. While Spain, France and Italy posted losses of 69.3%, 72.2% and 85.4%, respectively, Germany only saw a decline of 37.7%.

At the end of the first quarter, new registrations totalled 656,452 units, down 6.4% compared to the first three months of last year. This is despite dealerships being closed. The country’s market also suffered due to a VAT increase, with taxes rising from 16% to 19% at the beginning of the year. Autovista Group estimates that around 40,000 registrations were pulled forward into December last year as a result.

Brand increases

All domestic brands showed positive growth in March 2021, the strongest being Smart with a 304.4% increase. Double-digit increases were recorded by Opel (75.1%), Mini (58%), Porsche (55%), Volkswagen Passenger Cars (VW) (39.1%), Mercedes (36.7%), Audi (17.6%) and BMW (17%). VW claimed the largest share of new registrations, taking 19.3% of the market.

Alfa Romeo showed the most significant increase among the imported brands, up by 114.6%. Fellow Stellantis stablemate Peugeot saw sales grow 78.4% while Tesla enjoyed a 63.6% boost. However, Honda (-33.3%), Mitsubishi (-30%) and Jaguar (-10%) were among those to see sales decline in the month.

Electric closes the gap

In terms of fuel type, the market for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) achieved a significant increase of 191.4%, with a market share of 10.3%. With German car brands such as VW and BMW increasing their focus on electrification, there now seems to be an appetite for the technology amongst buyers. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models achieved a 12.2% market share, with sales increasing 277.5% in the month.

The swing to electric drives is more evident when internal combustion engines (ICE) sales are considered. New registrations of passenger cars with petrol engines increased by 7.1%. However, the market share was just 39.4%. The sale of diesel models continued to decline, with 5% fewer in March 2021 for a 22.1% market share. For the second successive month, diesel sales were outpaced by those of hybrids. When including standard and PHEV models, this powertrain type took 27.8% of the market.

The figures, therefore, show that 38.1% of registrations in Germany during the last month were non-ICE models. This is just 1.3% below the market share of petrol in March. It may not be long until sales of these vehicles outpace those of more traditional powertrains.

Germany extended its lockdown period to 18 April following a spike in infection cases. However, the Federation of Motor Trades and Repairs (ZDK) argued that vehicle dealers should be allowed to reopen fully. The group’s main argument is that while a hairdresser, with a floor space of 10m2, is allowed to have one customer, car showrooms with a floor space of 500m2 cannot open.

Launch Report: Volkswagen Caddy – improved engines and specifications

The Volkswagen (VW) Caddy has been redesigned from the ground up, with improved safety, space, engines, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). The fit and finish, digital cockpit, and general specification improvements make the model feel more like a VW passenger car. The driving dynamics are very good too, with outstanding roadholding and vehicle stability, as well as a good level of comfort.

Both the Caddy and the Caddy Maxi have grown in length and wheelbase, providing more cargo space. As the model is bigger, the maximum payload is slightly lower, but is the highest among key competitors. However, the loading volume of the Caddy is slightly below average, with the cargo space allowing for just one Euro pallet (only the long-wheelbase Maxi version accommodates two), while most competitors take two in standard form.

The new model hosts a comprehensive offer of assistance systems, including trailer-assist, which is a unique selling point in the segment. The modern interior and digital cockpit are advantageous for dual-use customers, i.e. drivers that use the vehicle for both commercial and private purposes.

The latest Euro 6 diesel engines benefit from huge emissions reductions and better fuel economy, supported by the new double SCR (selective catalytic-reduction) system. The 102-horsepower 2.0TDI has the lowest fuel consumption and CO2 emissions among its key rivals. There is not a fully-electric version of the new Caddy available, unlike small PSA Group and Renault vans. However, a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version is planned for 2022. A compressed natural gas (CNG) version is already available in France, and will be available to order in Spain from December 2021.

The Caddy has a lower entry list price than its predecessor, but pricing is generally higher than those of other mainstream competitors. However, the fuel savings and reduced CO2 emissions will improve running costs and should entice new buyers. Furthermore, the development of working-from-home, and closures of non-essential retail, have led to an increase in home deliveries, benefiting demand for vans, and their residual values (RVs).

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the VW Caddy in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast RVs and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Launch Report: VW Caddy

More effort needed to entice private buyers to EVs

More needs to be done to support the private uptake of electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) in the UK, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). New figures show businesses are twice as likely to make the switch from petrol and diesel.

Analysis of new-car registrations in 2020 shows that just 4.6% of privately bought cars were battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), compared to 8.7% for businesses and large fleets. This equates to 34,324 private registrations and 73,881 corporate ones.

In response to this, the SMMT has unveiled a new blueprint to deliver a greater retail uptake. With the UK government planning to ban the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030, the body believes now is the time to change people’s attitudes towards EVs.

‘While last year’s bumper uptake of electric vehicles is to be welcomed, it is clear this has been an electric revolution primarily for fleets, not families,’ commented SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes. ‘Manufacturers are committed to the consumer, reducing costs and providing as wide a choice as possible of zero-emission capable vehicles with many more to come.

‘To deliver an electric revolution that is affordable, achievable and accessible to all by 2030, however, government and other stakeholders must put ordinary drivers at the heart of policy and planning.’

Increasing availability

According to the SMMT, as of March 2021, manufacturers have brought more than 150 BEV, plug-in hybrid (PHEV), hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) models to the UK market. BEVs and PHEVs alone account for 25% of all available car models.

However, current higher costs of components’  raw materials mean these vehicles are inherently more expensive to manufacture. This implies an EV will retail for more than its fossil fuel equivalents.

Manufacturers are working hard to bring the cost of production down. Yet, they are constrained by lower demand and battery production costs, which have yet to reach the economies of scale required. Batteries have the biggest overall impact, representing 30-45% of the total production cost the SMMT states. BEVs are not expected to reach purchase cost parity with their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts across all car segments in the next few years.

The area where EVs benefit their drivers is in terms of running costs. This is of particular interest to businesses. In addition, company car drivers currently receive stronger and longer-lasting motivation through reduced purchase-taxes and fiscal incentives compared to consumers.

Grants changing

Last week, the UK government announced it will reduce the plug-in car grant and lower the price threshold for eligibility. This effectively adds £500 (€583) to the purchase price of all qualifying EVs under £35,000, and £3,000 to the price of those above £35,000.

By comparison, private buyers in Germany receive a €9,000 grant towards a new BEV, while Dutch drivers do not pay VAT on BEV purchases, equivalent to a purchase cost saving of around a sixth.

The SMMT estimates that maintaining the grant and similarly exempting consumer EV purchases from VAT would increase uptake by almost two-thirds by 2026 compared to current predictions.

Charging locations

The blueprint also calls for more to be done to expand the UK’s EV infrastructure. Private-buyer acceptance remains low because of affordability concerns, charge point availability and infrastructure reliability, according to the SMMT. Around one in three households have no dedicated off-street parking, leaving them disproportionately dependent on public-charging points.

The SMMT’s projections suggest that most drivers will choose to charge their vehicle at home if they can. Therefore, they estimate there would need to be around 2.7 million public-charge points in service by 2030 to provide adequate coverage and tackle range anxiety. The SMMT believes there are around 40,000 charging points in the country, most of which are in London.

This means more than 700 new charge points would have to be installed every day until the end of the decade. By comparison, the current installation rate is approximately 42 a day, according to information provided to the SMMT from charge-point mapping service ZapMap. Funding this expansion is estimated to cost around £17.6 billion.

‘We need incentives that tempt consumers, infrastructure that is robust and charging points that provide reassurance, so that zero-emission mobility will be possible for everyone, regardless of income or location,’ stated Hawes. ‘When every market is vying for these new technologies, a clear and collaborative strategy engaging all would ensure the UK remains an attractive place both to manufacture and market electric vehicles, helping us achieve our net-zero ambition.’

Schwacke Insights März 2021 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Die Februarzahlen offenbaren das aktuelle Dilemma. Zwar sind die Preise derzeit recht stabil mit leicht positiver Tendenz, aber aufgrund des Lockdowns ist auch wenig Bewegung im Bestand und die Standzeiten nehmen wieder zu. Insbesondere elektrifizierte Antriebe – abgesehen von Vollhybriden – setzen ihren Negativtrend in Prognose und Bewertung fort. Angesichts ungebremster Neuzulassungen auf GW-Kanäle wie Handel, Vermieter und Hersteller ist auch nicht mit kurzfristiger Besserung zu rechnen. Bei den Schnelldrehern tauchen nun in diesem Alterssegment erstmalig relevante Mengen Mercedes GLC Plug-In Hybride auf und finden offenbar schnell Abnehmer. Die 2017er Polo der sechsten Generation setzen sich als Diesel an die Spitze der Kurzsteher, was womöglich daran liegt, dass die immer noch aktuelle Generation seit Herbst 2020 neu nicht mehr als Selbstzünder angeboten wird.

Hier geht es zum Download: Schwacke Insights März 2021

Grafik Schwacke Insights März 2021

VW Group plans for cheaper EV-battery mass production

Volkswagen (VW) Group has presented its technology roadmap for batteries and charging up to 2030. The carmaker has also indicated that by ramping up its plans, jobs will need to be sacrificed.

The OEM will establish six gigafactories in Europe with a total production capacity of 240GWh by 2030. It will also expand its public fast-charging network, having announced cooperation with BP in the UK, Iberdrola in Spain and Enel in Italy.

Its new roadmap aims to significantly reduce both the battery’s complexity and cost, making electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) attractive and viable for consumers. At the same time, it will shorten its supply chain and control as much of the EV production of as possible.

‘E-mobility has become core business for us,’ commented Herbert Diess, chairman of the VW Group board. ‘We are now systematically integrating additional stages in the value chain. We secure a long-term pole position in the race for the best battery and best customer experience in the age of zero-emission mobility.’

Manufacturing control

As the market leader in Europe, VW Group knows it is responsible for delivering affordable electromobility as the industry transitions away from internal-combustion engine (ICE) technology. While some carmakers have announced plans to go EV-only, the carmaker is creating a sub-brand for its Volkswagen marque. Stablemate Bentley is choosing to focus on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and Porsche is investigating eFuels. All VW Group brands will feature electrification in some way. This means the carmaker will need an excessive amount of batteries, both for BEV and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models.

‘Together with partners, we want to have a total of six cell factories up and running in Europe by 2030, thus guaranteeing security of supply’, explained Thomas Schmall, VW Group board member for components.

To achieve its aims, VW Group will increase its order of batteries from its supplier Northvolt by €14 billion. It will focus production of premium cells at its factory in Skellefteå, Sweden, which will see manufacturing begin in 2023 and increase gradually to an annual capacity of 40GWh. The carmaker will also purchase outright the joint venture it has with Northvolt for a gigafactory in Salzgitter.

‘Volkswagen is a key investor, customer and partner on the journey ahead, and we will continue to work hard with the goal to provide them with the greenest battery on the planet as they rapidly expand their fleet of electric vehicles,’ said Peter Carlsson, co-founder and CEO of Northvolt.

The company is considering potential sites and partners for the other factories.

Cheaper batteries

As well as increasing production, VW Group wants to lower the cost of batteries, making vehicles more affordable as a result. ‘We aim to reduce the cost and complexity of the battery and at the same time, increase its range and performance,’ added Schmall. ‘This will finally make e-mobility affordable and the dominant drive technology.’

Therefore, by 2023, the company will introduce a ‘unified cell’, which will feature in 80% of all EVs in the group by 2030. This plan will allow the carmaker to introduce different chemistries into a standard battery-cell design, which will reduce costs while ensuring that each model retains a unique power or range attribute.

Further savings will be delivered by optimising the cell type, deploying innovative production methods, and consistent recycling.

VW Group will gradually reduce battery costs in the entry-level segment by up to 50% and in the volume segment by up to 30%. ‘We will use our economies of scale to the benefit of our customers when it comes to the battery too. On average, we will drive down the cost of battery systems to significantly below €100 per kilowatt-hour. This will finally make e-mobility affordable and the dominant drive technology,’ said Schmall.

Expanding charging infrastructure

In order to facilitate mass-adoption of its EVs, the OEM is also looking to expand its fast-charging network and has partnered with local providers in key markets to achieve this.

Along with its partners, the company intends to operate about 18,000 public fast-charging points in Europe by 2025. This represents a five-fold expansion of the fast-charging network compared to today.

The carmaker wants to establish about 8,000 fast-charging points throughout Europe together with BP. With a charging capacity of 150kW, the fast chargers will be installed at 4,000 BP and Aral service stations, with the majority of these in Germany and Great Britain. In cooperation with Iberdrola, Volkswagen will cover the main traffic routes in Spain. In Italy, it will collaborate with Enel to establish a fast-charging network both along motorways and in urban areas. The carmaker will also continue its activities as part of the Ionity joint venture.

Job losses

While the roadmap promises cheaper EVs with increased production, the carmaker is also poised to cut jobs to reduce costs.

In agreement with its works council, the group will freeze its workforce size at the January 2021 level and open up an extensive retirement package. It will offer partial retirement to employees born in 1964, as part of the digital transformation roadmap. It will reopen partial retirement for those born in 1961 and 1962, and launch an early-retirement programme for those born between 1956 to 1960.

‘Disciplined cost management will continue to be necessary to finance the required investments in the future, to remain competitive and, above all, to make it possible to safeguard jobs in the long run,’ commented Gunnar Kilian, chief human resources officer of Volkswagen AG. ‘The measures set out in the guidelines provide the right solution for this. We are strengthening the internal transformation of our workforce and creating jobs in forward-looking areas – through training and targeted external recruitment. For this purpose, we are also increasing our training budget by €40 million to a total of €200 million.’

Based on experience, the company expects up to 900 employees to volunteer for the short-term early-retirement models, with a low four-digit figure for partial retirement.

Video: Europe’s registrations struggle in February but improvements to come

Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry discusses the registration figures from Europe’s big five automotive markets. While numbers may be down, the outlook for the whole year is more positive…

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

Show notes

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Conditional reopening of German car showrooms

England’s car showrooms to remain closed until 12 April

Podcast: How is European automotive adapting to pandemic and climate-change fallout?

Daily Brief editor Phil Curry and journalist Tom Geggus discuss key activities and developments in the European automotive sector from the past fortnight. These include COVID-19’s effect on the uptake of mobility-as-a-service (MAAS), different fuel types, and autonomous technology.

Show notes

Cazoo buys Cluno as CaaS options increase

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

VW accelerates towards electric and digital future

VW aims for commercialised autonomous systems in 2025

Is it too early to go ‘EV-only’?

Ford to be zero-emission capable in Europe by 2026

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

Volvo to go all electric and online by 2030

E-fuels gain awareness as Mazda joins alliance

Schwacke Insights Februar 2021 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Der Jahresauftakt wurde durch den Lockdown gründlich verhagelt. Zwar sind die Inseratslöschungen leicht gegenüber dem Vormonat gestiegen, aber dies hat technische Gründe. Die verkauften Mengen sind deutlich unter Vormonat und -jahr. Die Prognose folgt dem stetigen Abfall des Bewertungsniveaus und zeigt besonders für Elektrifizierte weiter hohen Druck. Unterdessen zeigen die Bewertungen von Benziner und Diesel leicht positive Tendenz, was die Prognose stabilisieren wird. Die Standzeiten wuchsen durch geschlossene Betriebe weiter an und lassen die Schere zwischen Elektrisch und Verbrenner weit offen. Bei den Schnelldrehern wird sichtbar, dass gebrauchte dreijährige Diesel in der Pandemie teils zur Mangelware wurden und entsprechend zügig Absatz finden. Der Handel hofft nun auf ein baldiges Lockdown-Ende, stehen doch die so wichtigen GW-Monate März bis Mai bevor!

Hier geht es zum Download: Schwacke Insights Februar 2021

Insights Februar 2021 Restwertdaten in Grafiken

Launch Report: Hyundai Tucson – bolder and roomier

The new Hyundai Tucson has an assertive and bold design, with its front face combining the headlights and grille. The 3D rear-light signature echoes the progressive triangular headlight design and two-tone colour personalisation is now possible. As the new Tucson is longer and wider, it is roomier and more practical than its predecessor and has a large boot.

The modern and refined digital cockpit, featuring a flush-fitting 10-inch screen, is standard across the range and there is also a digital TFT screen directly in front of the driver. The materials, trim and build quality are all good and there are numerous ADAS and safety features, including a central airbag between the two front seats. A neat touch is the blind-spot monitoring system, which shows a digital feed from the left or right side of the car, depending on which direction is indicated.

The Tucson is offered with mild-hybrid (MHEV) petrol and diesel engines or as a full hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV), and a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version will be available too. The trim lines are well composed and there are relatively few options, leading to well-equipped used cars.

With the leap forward in quality and roominess compared to its predecessor, the Tucson has the potential to attract a wider selection of consumers. The HEV version may present an attractive business proposition for buyers who are not yet ready to plug in.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Hyundai Tucson in France, Germany and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Launch Report: Hyundai Tucson

Daimler to become Mercedes-Benz as it spins off truck business

Daimler is to undergo a fundamental change in its structure, spinning off its trucks business and renaming itself Mercedes-Benz. The move is intended to help the company unlock the full potential of its business in a zero-emission future.

Daimler Truck will become a listed company with a majority stake distributed to Daimler shareholders. Mercedes-Benz will continue to develop models for both the passenger car and van markets. Diverging the business will allow each unit to focus on new technologies that are impacting their respective sectors.

Signs of a shift in policy emerged last year when Daimler announced it was developing hydrogen systems for its trucks business while cancelling plans for fuel-cell-powered cars. As the commercial and car markets are likely to take different paths towards zero-emissions, each company will now be able to put funding and resources into its own development rather than share the pot and restrict development as a result. The split is expected to occur at the end of this year, with an extra-ordinary shareholder meeting in Q3 to discuss the final plans and obtain approval.

Corporate structure

‘This is a historic moment for Daimler. It represents the start of a profound reshaping of the company. Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans and Daimler Trucks & Buses are different businesses with specific customer groups, technology paths and capital needs.’ said Ola Källenius, chairman of the board of management of Daimler and Mercedes-Benz.

‘Both companies operate in industries that are facing major technological and structural changes. Given this context, we believe they will be able to operate most effectively as independent entities, equipped with strong net liquidity and free from the constraints of a conglomerate structure,’ he added.

As part of a more focused corporate structure, both Mercedes-Benz and Daimler Truck will be supported by dedicated captive financial and mobility service entities. The company plans to assign resources and teams from its current Daimler Mobility business to both brands.

‘We have confidence in the financial and operational strength of our two vehicle divisions. And we are convinced that independent management and governance will allow them to operate even faster, invest more ambitiously, target growth and cooperation, and thus be significantly more agile and competitive,’ commented Källenius.

Sustainability needs

Daimler had been struggling in recent years, announcing a series of profit warnings and initially struggling with its CO2 targets following the introduction of the Worldwide Harmonised Light-Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP). Last year, the company managed to turn things around, tripling sales of plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery-electric (BEV) vehicles, and forecasting that it met its emissions figures to avoid any EU-sanctioned penalties.

‘We will continue to push forward with our ’Electric first’ strategy and the further expansion of our electric model initiative. Based on our current knowledge, we expect to meet the CO2 targets in Europe again in 2021,’ said Källenius.

With separate CO2 targets for passenger cars and trucks, Daimler will be keen to keep up this momentum, especially with stricter EU regulations for 2025 and 2030. Therefore, separating its trucks business will give Mercedes-Benz more focus on ensuring it meets guidelines by focusing on its electrification plans.

Further strategy

In October, Daimler unveiled a raft of plans that would see Mercedes-Benz focus on the luxury market with a shift to electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs). The company plans for the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) models it offers to drop 70% by 2030. Part of this plan could see its range of compact models decrease as it focuses its product portfolio on the most profitable parts of the market.

‘We intend to build the world’s most desirable cars,’ said Källenius at the time. ‘It is about leveraging our strengths as a luxury brand to grow economic value and enhancing the mix and positioning of our product portfolio. We will unlock the full potential of our unique sub-brands – AMG, Maybach, G and EQ. Our strategy is designed to avoid non-core activities to focus on winning where it matters: dedicated electric vehicles and proprietary car software. We will take action on structural costs, target strong and sustained profitability.’

By divesting itself of Daimler Trucks, the carmaker can now focus on expanding new technologies in the passenger car market, including expanding its EQ line-up of BEVs. It plans to increase its range in the shortest space of time, meaning product development resources and expertise will be shifted to electric-drive projects.

Germany: new-car registrations down 31% in January

New-car registrations fell by 31.1% in Germany during January compared with the same month in 2020. A total of 169,754 passenger cars were registered according to the latest figures from the country’s automotive authority, the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA).

This aligns with the Autovista Group expectation of a return to year-on-year declines of about 30% in countries where dealers were closed for physical sales. Germany is the largest European market affected in January, with the restrictions currently in place until 14 February.

The German market was also hampered by the return to a 19% VAT rate since 1 January 2021, which had been reduced to 16% from 1 July to 31 December 2020. Autovista Group estimates that this change advanced about 40,000 new-car registrations into December 2020, when the market rose 9.9% compared to the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the shortage of semiconductors will have invariably disrupted some new cars’ deliveries in the country last month.

New-car registrations, Germany, y-o-y % change, January 2020 to January 2021

Pkw-Neuzulassungen, Deutschland, Veränderung in % gegenüber dem Vorjahr, Januar 2020 bis Januar 2021

Source: KBA

There were two fewer working days in January 2021 than in January last year. On a comparable working-day basis, Autovista Group estimates that registrations fell by about 23% in the last month, and annualised new-car demand was at 2.94 million units. As in France, Spain and Italy, the start to 2021 of Germany’s new-car market has been deceptively shaky.

Given the mitigating factors in January, this bodes relatively well for the German market, which Autovista Group currently forecasts will recover to 3.15 million units in 2021, 8% up on 2020. This is at the same level as the German automotive industry association VDA forecasts. However, the VDA rightly highlighted that 2021 will still be ‘significantly lower than the approximately 3.5 million new registrations of the years 2017 to 2019.’

‘We assume that the second half of 2021 will bring an improvement, if the progress in vaccination is so great that the pandemic can be noticeably contained in everyday life,’ commented VDA president Hildegard Müller. This echoes the EU-wide sentiment expressed by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). ‘The year 2021 will decide the future of the industry in Germany and Europe. We are at a turning point that will set the direction for the following decades,’ Müller added.

Brands and segments

German brands reflected January’s negative performance. Audi (down 47.4%), Mini (down 41.5%), and Ford (down 41.1%) saw the most significant declines. Meanwhile, Porsche posted the smallest losses, with a drop of 3.9%. Volkswagen maintained the largest market share, of 20.1%.

Among the imported brands, Tesla and Volvo exceeded their registration results for the same reporting period in 2020, up 23.4% and 9.4% respectively. In contrast, declines of more than 70% were seen at Jaguar and Honda (down 77.9% and 70.1% respectively), while Fiat recorded the smallest decrease of 14.8%. Skoda was the strongest imported brand for market share, with 6.7% of registrations.

Motorhomes were the only segment to achieve growth, of 5%, to capture a market share of 1.9%. Meanwhile, small MPVs saw the most severe decline at 63.6%, and full-size MPVs fell 55.3%, sports cars slumped by 43.2% and utility vehicles dropped by 42%. SUVs were the strongest segment with 21.9% of the market, despite a decrease of 26.4%, followed by the compact segment with a 19.1% share, down 32.2%.

Fuel types

Registrations of petrol-powered cars fell by half (50.3%) in January 2021 compared to the previous reporting period, taking 37.1% of the market. Diesel also dropped by 44.8%, representing just over a quarter of new cars (26.1%). In contrast, electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) saw year-on-year growth of 117.8%, with a total of 16,315 new units registered, taking their share to 9.6%.

Some 45,449 hybrids were registered in January, up 47.5%, while securing 26.8% of the market. A total of 20,588 plug-in hybrid units were registered in January, up 138.3%, with a 12.1% share. Natural gas (259) and liquefied gas (340) only accounted for 0.2% of the market last month, recording a combined decrease of 35.5%. The average CO2 emissions of newly registered cars was 125.9 g/km, representing a decrease of 16.9%.

The tipping balance towards EVs, and away from internal combustion engines (ICE), follows on from a trend recorded last year. In 2020, alternative drives made up of hybrid, fuel-cell, gas, hydrogen, and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), claimed approximately a quarter of all new-car registrations. The German government set out COVID-19 recovery plans as a springboard towards a greener economy, with a greater emphasis on electromobility. In November, it committed a €4 billion stimulus package to the automotive sector, with funds channelled into the adaptation of production lines and incentivising the purchase of EVs.

Schwacke Insights Januar 2021 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Am Jahresende zeigt sich ein stabiles Bild in der Preisentwicklung. Bewertung und Prognose liegen gegenüber dem Vormonat nur geringfügig darunter und Standzeiten sind überwiegend rückläufig. Im Vergleich zum Dezember 2019 hat sich allerdings die Prognose durch den stetigen Preisdruck des Jahres deutlich verschlechtert. Die Aufhellung in der Bewertung der Elektrifizierten ist den Vollhybriden geschuldet, die unbelastet von Prämien und Übermengen, mit positiver Tendenz liefen. Üblich für ein Jahresende sind die anwachsenden Bestandsmengen, auch wenn sie aktuell die Preise nicht signifikant drücken. Der Jahresstart wird optimistisch und einige Händler passen Preise wegen der Mehrwertsteuererhöhung nach oben an. Angebotspreise steigen damit, wenn auch der Nettoertrag bleibt. Bei den Schnelldrehern finden sich die ersten drei- und vierjährigen Polo VI Diesel mit zügigem Abverkauf.

Hier geht es zum Download: Schwacke Insights Januar 2021

Schwacke Insights Januar 2021