Insights

Monthly Market Dashboard: Mixed RV movements across Europe in January

Neil King | 25 Jan 2021

Über den Autor

Neil King

Senior Data Journalist

Neil King, senior data journalist, holds responsibility for bringing together data-driven insight and pan-European content that is born out of the expertise and knowledge across the whole Autovista Group.

Spielzeugauto auf einem Stapel voller Geld

Autovista Group’s interactive monthly market dashboard (MMD) reveals a mixed picture of residual-value movements in January. Senior data journalist Neil King explores the analytics.

This month’s MMD reveals that the average residual value (RV) of cars aged 36 months and with 60,000km grew year on year in all the Big 5 European markets in January. However, values were lower than reported for December in France, and only rose modestly month on month in Germany and Spain. Italy and the UK enjoyed month-on-month pricing growth of 9.7% and 5.3% respectively.

RV retention, represented as a percentage, grew year on year in all markets except Germany. The highest growth in RV-percentage terms was in the UK, where the average was 48%, equating to an 8.4% change compared to January 2020. Compared to December, RV retention was lower in France and Germany, and rose by a modest 1.1% in Spain. Again, Italy and the UK enjoyed month-on-month pricing growth, of 9.9% and 2.9% respectively.

MMD Januar 2021

The UK enjoyed the strongest rally in used-car prices after Europe emerged from the first wave of lockdowns in summer 2020. This was driven by the release of pent-up demand, and a starker vehicle-supply challenge than any other market, which translated into higher RVs as used-car demand outstripped supply.

These RVs descended from their great height in late October as pent-up demand was broadly satisfied and new-car supply improved. However, with the UK back under lockdown restrictions as it seeks to stem a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, and Brexit impacting new-car supply and prices, residual values are rising again.

Restrictions slow sales

Three-year-old cars are selling more slowly than a year ago in France, Spain and the UK. Moreover, the average number of stock days rose in all the major European markets over the last month, compared to December, as restrictions, including the closure of dealerships (except for online sales and servicing/repairs) in Germany and the UK, hinder transactions.

The greatest slowdown in the average number of days for 36-month-old cars to sell, compared to the December 2019 snapshot, was in the UK. Three-year-old cars are now moving on after an average of 48.5 days, up 14.5% from 40 days in December. This also means France is now the market with the quickest turnaround times, with cars selling after an average of 46.5 days.

The two fastest-selling cars in the major markets in January 2021 are both in Italy. The Dacia Duster and Volkswagen Polo are taking 26 days and 31 days respectively to find a new home. In third place is the Audi A1 in France, which needs just under 32 days to be rehomed.

Negative RV outlook

The new MMD also features the latest Autovista Group RV outlook for the major European markets. Despite the mixed RV movements in January, a downward trend is forecast in 2021, with prices of used cars in the 36 months/60,000km scenario declining in all the Big 5 European markets.

In the December update, the RV outlook was improved slightly for France and the UK, but values are still forecast to decline in 2021, by 0.4% and 1.4% respectively. Used-car prices are forecast to decline by 0.7% in Germany and 1.1% in Spain. The weakest outlook is for Italy, where RVs are forecast to be 3.9% lower than their current level at the end of 2021.

Click here or on the screenshot above to view the monthly market dashboard for January 2021.

Monthly Market Dashboard: Mixed RV movements across Europe in January

Monthly Market Dashboard: RVs have peaked in Europe

24 Nov 2020

In the second edition of a new monthly initiative, Autovista Group has created a dashboard showcasing the latest data on residual values, average selling days,...

Monthly Market Dashboard: RVs rise across Europe, but for how long?

23 Okt 2020

BMW is carrying out a global recall of some of its plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) produced this year, due to battery fire concerns. The carmaker is...

Monthly Market Dashboard: RVs start to fall in Europe

21 Dez 2020

Autovista Group’s interactive monthly market dashboard (MMD) suggests that pressure is increasing on residual values. Senior data journalist Neil King explores this month’s analytics. This month’s MMD...

Ja, bitte melden Sie mich für die aktuellsten europäischen News & Insights des Daily Brief an!

*Pflichtfeld

Ja, ich möchte folgende E-Mails erhalten:
Daily Brief: europaweite Nachrichten und Insights - Täglicher Versand von Autovista Limited, auf Englisch.

In unseren E-Mails verwenden wir Pixel, die uns zeigen, wenn Sie unsere E-Mails öffnen, weiterleiten oder Links anklicken. Dies hilft uns, die Leistung und Wirksamkeit unserer E-Mails zu messen. Wir kombinieren dies mit den Informationen, die Sie bei der Newsletter Anmeldungen angeben haben und Ihren Browsing-Informationen, damit wir unser Marketing besser auf Sie zuschneiden und verbessern sowie Ihre Benutzererfahrung auf unserer Website personalisieren können. Indem Sie sich anmelden, stimmen Sie der Verwendung Ihrer Daten zum Zweck der Zusendung der ausgewählten E-Mails und der Verwendung von Zählpixeln zu. Sie können Ihre Zustimmung zum Erhalt unserer E-Mails und dem Verwenden der Zählpixel jederzeit widerrufen, indem Sie dem Link zum E-Mail-Präferenzzentrum folgen, der in jeder E-Mail enthalten ist, die Sie erhalten. Weitere Informationen über die Verarbeitung Ihrer persönlichen Daten finden Sie in der Datenschutzerklärung der Autovista Group.