Article Type: Insights

September – Latest whitepaper update: How will COVID-19 shape used car markets?

In the latest edition of Autovista Group’s whitepaper: How will COVID-19 shape used car markets?, an increasing number of markets have an improved probability of more positive economic scenarios, but scenario 3 is the most likely one in 12 out of 18 markets. There are improved RV outlooks for Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Netherlands, Slovakia, Sweden and Switzerland.

In our August update of this whitepaper, 12 out of 18 markets were allocated to our ‘medium risk – slow u-shaped recovery’ scenario (SC3). That view has been confirmed for this September update. The same 12 countries expect that scenario to materialise with the highest probability.

The whitepaper reveals that the Netherlands is the first country out of those monitored to move into scenario 1, with strong signs of a lasting V-shaped recovery, while in the UK, the increase in residual values (RVs) may not last too long once the double whammy of Brexit and coronavirus (COVID-19) materialises. In Eastern European countries, the strength of the Euro and rising list prices of new cars means that used-car prices should not come under too much pressure, according to the analysis.

The golden age of the used car continues in many markets, with used-car values – on average – at, or even above, pre-crisis levels. But in many markets, this is driven by highly-priced older used cars, the so-called ‘budget cars’, which are in demand as people take steps to avoid public transport and seek a reliable used car over the autumn and winter period.

There is a degree of caution as uncertainties crowd the forecasts and the speed of Europe’s recovery. The current unknowns that could impact scenarios include:

  • The reactions of dealers when pent-up demand has been met;
  • The impact on used-car prices if OEMs push more new cars into the markets at higher discounts towards the end of the year;
  • The impact on private demand once government support programmes end and, consequently, stop masking structural and deeper issues within the automotive sector; and
  • What would a second wave of COVID-19 mean for Europe – France and Spain have already been hit hard a second time and restrictions are back; will more markets be similarly affected?

You can find more information about how different markets are shaping up, and the various economic scenarios across the region, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper – ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.

Can graphene give a glimpse into the automotive future?

The automotive industry looks to have reached a critical evolutionary step. Emerging from a mechanical mindset, vehicles are undergoing a process of electrification and digitalisation. As this fresh era of design expands, new materials are also erupting onto the scene. Daily Brief journalist Tom Geggus examines the potential of one such material; graphene.

When considering the construction of vehicles throughout the 20th century, particular materials spring to mind. Ford’s Model T was shaped by steel, GM engineered aluminium into its engines and Renault made progress with plastic. But as vehicles become smarter, so do the materials which go into their production. One new source of innovation for carmakers looks to be graphene.

A science lesson

So what is this new wonder material? Graphene is a one-atom-thick layer of carbon, arranged into a hexagonal lattice. While scientists have known about its existence for years, they were unable to extract it from graphite, the same mineral used in pencils.

But that was until 2004, when two professors from the University of Manchester, Andre Geim and Kostya Novoselov, made a Nobel Prize-winning discovery, with little more than a roll of sticky tape. The two would often hold ‚Friday night experiments,‘ venturing into experimental science that was not necessarily linked to their day jobs.

Armed with their tape, the pair removed flakes from a lump of graphene. Realising some samples were thinner than others, Geim and Novoselov began separating fragments repeatedly. Eventually, they were left with carbon flakes only an atom thick.

This means the graphene can be stretched along its length and width, but at an atom thick it cannot be manipulated on its third dimension, making it two-dimensional (2D). To put this into perspective, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.

While the sticky tape method opened the door to the discovery of graphene, it is not workable on an industrial scale. Instead, alternative methods like chemical deposition are now being used to extract the material en masse.

Groundbreaking graphene

Now, Graphene@Manchester leads the business-based development of the material at the University. Based in the UK, this includes the National Graphene Institute (NGI) and the Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre (GEIC). NGI brings together the scientific elements while GEIC deals with prototypes for pilot productions.

Speaking with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief, James Baker, CEO of Graphene@Manchester explained why graphene is so groundbreaking.

Because it is 2D, the material has unique properties that set it apart from 3D ones. ‘So you often refer to what’s called the graphene superlatives, and you hear things like 200 times stronger steel,’ said Baker. ‘It’s more conductive than copper. It’s both electrically and thermally conductive, it’s stretchable, it’s flexible, it’s transparent.’

Re-shaping cars

Used as an additive, the material can improve multiple elements of vehicles. When combined with rubber, it could potentially give a tyre both durability and grip, Baker explained. This could mean no more trade-offs between longevity and traction. One company, SpaceBlue, even looks to recycle tyres after they have reached the end of their life, by converting them into hardwearing floor mats, which have been enhanced with tiny amounts of graphene.

The 2D material can also be used to form compounds with other elements of a car to make it lighter. GEIC partner Briggs Automotive Company built the Mono, ‚the first production car in the world to fully incorporate the use of graphene-enhanced carbon fibre in every body panel‘. The material improved the structural properties of the fibre to make the supercar’s panels stronger and lighter, while also significantly improving the car’s mechanical and thermal performance.

Ford ran trials to see how the material could be used in components like fuel rail covers, pump covers and front engine covers. The carmaker also looked to reduce noise inside of its vehicles by mixing graphene with foam constituents. Tests carried out by Ford and suppliers revealed an approximate 17% reduction in noise, a 20% improvement in mechanical properties, and a 30% enhancement in heat endurance properties, compared to a non-graphene foam.

Infografik Auto

Even outside of the car, the material could help make a difference to motorists. Responsible for the UK’s motorways and major roads, Highways England is working with GEIC to explore the additon of graphene to bitumen in road surfaces. The aim is to make roads not only hard-wearing but flexible when it comes to extreme weather. If surfaces are able to expand and contract to adapt to hot and cold conditions, the likelihood of potholes would decrease, alongside the potential for damage to vehicles.

EVs and graphene                

But how does graphene play into current automotive trends? As the industry experiences an electrified undercurrent, pulling vehicle development towards e-mobility, a material which decreases weight could be essential.

Baker explained that ‘light-weighting’ is a key challenge with electric cars as they get progressively heavier. This process can help shed weight from all over the car, including the interior, with plastics and fabrics being made thinner and lighter. The less an electric vehicle (EV) weighs, the less work the motors will have to do and the more efficient the car will become. Graphene can also be added to battery elements, such as the casing, to make it lighter and tougher, as well as more thermally conductive.

Ultracapacitor specialist Skeleton Technologies, also recently partnered with the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, to complete the development of a graphene ‘SuperBattery.’ With a 15-second charge time, the unit would also be capable of charging cycles counted in hundreds of thousands. The company claims this makes it ‘a perfect solution for the three main issues affecting electric vehicles: slow charging times, battery degradation, and range anxiety.’

Forward-thinking

Discussing the potentially disruptive areas graphene might one day impact, Baker considered whether a vehicle’s structure could itself store energy. This could mean a car’s door or floor panels taking the place of a battery pack. However, he acknowledged the challenge with an idea like this would be dealing with a potential collision, and what would happen if a panel became damaged.

Going forward, Baker believes the wonder material is more likely to be crucial to the development of a new type of supercapacitor. This could allow vehicles to be equipped with a relatively smaller battery for range, which is then supplemented with a supercapacitor used for acceleration. For taxis and buses, which do a lot of stop-start driving, this split would be ideal as they would receive better range and performance from a supercapacitor that can recharge through braking.

Getting any graphene product into the market place requires jumping two major hurdles, Baker said. First, there is the development of the product itself, then secondly obtaining all the necessary certificates and coming into line with regulations. For a safety-critical product, this could mean roughly two to five years to get the required performance, and then a similar time scale to get the product certified. Meanwhile, simpler, non-safety related items could reach the market in 12 to 18 months.

However, with targeted investment, Baker believes certain areas of development could undergo acceleration. With countries looking to lower their carbon outputs, any technology capable of assisting the reduction of emissions would be well received. As environmental necessity continues to drive change, graphene could start shaping more of the automotive industry before too long. If used to its full potential, the 2D material could make its predecessors, like steel, aluminium and plastic, seem outdated, old-fashioned and one-dimensional.

Images courtesy of the University of Manchester.

Podcast: Breaking down registrations, fuel types and supply chains

The Autovista Group Daily Brief team discusses the biggest automotive news stories of the last fortnight. In this episode, Neil King examines Europe’s registration figures, Phil Curry focuses on fuel types, and Tom Geggus studies battery supply chains.

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/breaking-down-registrtaions-fuel-types-and-supply-chains

You can also listen and subscribe to receive further episodes direct to your mobile device on Apple, Spotify and Google Podcasts.

Three-speed RVs: UK and France benefit from pent-up demand post-lockdown

Following the emergence of Europe’s automotive sector from coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns, a ‘three-speed’ development of residual values (RVs) has prevailed across the region. Senior data journalist Neil King explores the region’s variations.

The UK and France have enjoyed a rally, driven by pent-up demand in the initial post-lockdown period. Autovista Group’s COVID-19 tracker, which tracks 12 European markets, shows that the index of RVs, compared to early February, has risen since mid-May and peaked at 104.8 (a 4.8% rise) in the UK and 102.4 (a 2.4% rise) in France in the week to 6 September. The start month was February, with a value of 100.

The UK is enjoying the release of pent-up demand, both from the lockdown and the uncertainty running up to the country’s departure from the European Union on 31 January. It also faces a starker vehicle-supply challenge than any other market, which is filtering through to higher RVs as used-car demand outstrips supply. ‘Stock of both new and used cars is the biggest issue in the UK. This is driving up used prices and we do not see the bubble bursting quite yet. It’s September and even convertible demand is still high, with values increasing,’ commented Anthony Machin, head of content and product at Glass’s.

French Revolution

France benefitted from pent-up demand and a new incentive scheme that came into effect on 1 June. The €8 billion package includes a €7,000 grant for private buyers of new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) costing less than €45,000 (€5,000 for fleet buyers), while buyers of new plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) can claim a €2,000 subsidy.

Additionally, France doubled its premiums for those looking to trade in older vehicles for a cleaner model, with a €3,000 grant for vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) and €5,000 for BEVs and PHEVs. Crucially, the enhanced trade-in bonus also applies to used cars and hence the notable rise in RVs. However, the scheme reached its 200,000-vehicle cap before the end of July and the Ministry of Ecological Transition announced the replacement of the recovery scheme with a conversion bonus, applicable from 3 August.

‘In France, OEM plants restarted late and slowly, creating a lack of new-car stock in July and even more in August. Moreover, as people have defected from the new-car market to the used-car market, increasing demand, the low stock of used cars explains the ongoing increase in residual values. This is especially true in the A- and B-segments, where the conversion bonus is working really well, but this is not the case for all fuel types and segments,’ commented Yoann Taitz, operations director of Autovista Group in France.

Used-car transactions surged; 595,942 used cars changed ownership in France in June, 29.1% more than in June 2019, according to data published by the French carmakers’ association CCFA. This was followed by year-on-year growth of 13.3% in July and 16.8% in August. Nevertheless, there were still 9.2% fewer used-car transactions in the first eight months of 2020 than in the same period in 2019.

Autovista Group anticipates a slowdown in the RV development in France and our latest RV outlook calls for prices of used cars to be 0.3% lower in France at the end of 2020 than when the COVID-19 crisis erupted in Europe, in March. In the forthcoming September update of Autovista Group’s whitepaper, How will COVID-19 shape used car markets?, we will reveal which market is forecast to be the most resilient among the 18 European countries covered. 

Autovista Group, Residual Value Intelligence, COVID-19 tracker

Source: Autovista Group, Residual Value Intelligence, COVID-19 tracker

Rapid-reaction markets

Sweden, Finland and Portugal all had rapid negative reactions to COVID-19. Dramatic lockdown measures were not introduced in Sweden and Finland, but RVs fell from early February to mid-May in both markets.

However, RVs have climbed in Sweden since mid-June and recorded 100.7 on the index in the week to 6 September, i.e. 0.7% higher than in early February. ‘The used-car market has recovered fine as stocks are decreasing and sales volumes and values are rising,’ said Johan Trus, chief editor of Autovista Group in Sweden. ‘People were not allowed to travel to other countries, so the summer vacation has been spent in the country, and then people needed a car to travel. In addition, car exports have picked up.’

In Finland, the index of RVs fell from early February to only 97 in mid-June and has remained at the lowest level in Europe since. ‘Finland is still running on low numbers, and we don’t see the same quick recovery as in Sweden. The import of young used Swedish cars has picked up again too, in combination with lower used-car values than normal, already before the crisis started,’ Trus commented.

Portugal also endured falling RVs since the tracker index started in February but a more pronounced downturn commenced at the end of March. As in Finland, the price index is only showing a modest increase and has not recovered to pre-coronavirus levels.

‘Used-car sales continue to recover quicker than new-car sales. In July, used-car sales grew 25% year-on-year whereas new-car sales fell 16.9%, although this was a significant improvement on June, when the drop was 56.2%. There was just a small 0.1% decline in new-car sales in August but the drop was 8.6% including light commercial vehicles,’ said Joao Areal, editorial manager of Autovista Group in Portugal.

‘In the next months, we will understand if the demand for used cars continues to grow or if this was due to pent-up demand built during the lockdown. The car market represented more than half of consumer credit in July but of this amount, 85% was for used cars. Although we can see a recovery in the car market, we are still far from pre-COVID-19 values,’ added Areal.

Late starters

The rest of Europe’s tracked markets remain ‘late starters’, where several effects are balancing each other out.

The first reason for the ongoing stability in many markets is that they have essentially remained ‘on hold.’ In Italy for example, ‘the market has been waiting for a better understanding of the full impact of the economic crisis, especially considering that many experts are convinced that we could face a second wave and a new lockdown in autumn,’ explained Marco Pasquetti, forecast and data specialist of Autovista Group in Italy.

RVs fell again in Italy from late June to late July. This is partly because of the incentives to support the country’s automotive industry, which came into effect on 1 August. ‘There is also the Ecobonus incentive scheme, but the amount allocated is insufficient in our opinion (so far). We think that we’ll see an impact on values starting from September,’ Pasquetti added.

The significant disruption to new-car supply and registrations is also impacting RVs in ‘late-starter’ markets.

In Germany for example, used-car transactions were just 6% lower in the first eight months of the year than in the same period in 2019, according to the KBA. They have even performed better than last year for two consecutive months. New-car registrations have been far more affected, however, and are still 29% lower in the year-to-date than in 2019.

‘The lack of new-car supply still boosts young used-car sales but dealers seem to be unnecessarily discounting them even more than before the crisis – probably in favour of a quicker turnaround of stock. After a proper autumn, we expect stronger price competition at dealers in the last two months of the year as they compensate for the loss in new-car sales with higher used-car turnover,’  commented Andreas Geilenbrügge, head of valuations and insights at Schwacke.

The situation is a bit more optimistic than before in Spain, but the country faces the same challenge. ‘The automotive sector is resisting the crisis better than expected, helped by the measures to boost the sector that the government put in place. The production stoppages have also reduced pressure on used-car stock and the average number of stock days is much longer now. However, there are fewer new used cars coming into the dealers and I think the MOVES and RENOVE plans and/or the high discounts for new cars and young used cars will end up affecting transaction prices in the coming months,’ said Ana Azofra, valuation and insights manager at Autovista Group in Spain.

Switzerland saw the same dramatic decline in new-car sales volumes as elsewhere. ‘So, nearly new cars, aged 0-6 months, served to fill the gap left by missing new cars and increased their values temporarily. However, used cars aged 0-6 months, as well as those aged seven to 17 months, are losing ground again as new-car sales slowly regain some of the terrain lost during the lockdown,’ commented Hans-Peter Annen, head of editorial for Autovista Group in Switzerland.

‘Now manufacturers have resumed production and all the individual new-car incentives are back, this will most likely increase the used-car stock volume and the pressure on RVs,’ Annen added.

Meanwhile, there has been continued positive development of RVs in Poland.

‘I can observe continuous good demand for young used vehicles. They are a lower financial risk for buyers in the volatile market situation. Besides, list prices are growing very fast. That’s probably due to expected penalties for CO2 targets and the introduction of WLTP and the new Euro 6d norm, with more complicated engines (mild-hybrids),’ commented Marcin Kardas, head of the Autovista Group editorial team in Poland.

‘On the one hand, the financial contracts between companies and fleet suppliers are extended, which will cause a lack of the youngest used cars on the market. But a lot of people still work from home so don’t need a car and the economy remains unstable. In this environment, it is really hard to predict the direction of RVs. Growing list prices will decrease them but strong demand for used cars will positively influence them. To recognise the real post-COVID effect, we should wait a bit longer but I don’t expect significant changes in the coming months,’ concluded Kardas.

Kia commits to mobility services

Kia Motors Corporation (Kia) is expanding its partnerships with mobility companies to ‘meet the needs of a diverse range of customers worldwide.’ The move will mean increasing its fleet sizes, providing customised transport offerings and launching new rental capabilities. In July, Kia also announced the formation of Purple M, a startup focused on electric-vehicle (EV) mobility services.

From the outset of 2020, Kia has been revealing how it wants to change the way these platforms operate. In January, the carmaker announced ‘Plan S,’ its long-term strategy to shift focus away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles towards EVs and other customised mobility solutions. This strategy includes establishing hubs in cities with strict environmental regulations, as well as developing services based on electric and autonomous vehicles in the long term.

‘Kia is striving to provide customised products and differentiated mobility services based on its long history in automotive manufacturing,’ Kia’s President and CEO Ho Sung Song said. ‘Kia will further enhance its collaboration with global partners to offer regionally customised mobility services as it implements its ‘Plan S’ strategy.’

Regional strategies

During a visit to the carmaker’s Sohari plant in South Korea, Song revealed the company’s plans to develop different regional approaches to its mobility partnerships. So, in South Korea, the carmaker will build on its ‘Kia Flex’ vehicle subscription programme by expanding the fleet to 200 vehicles. The line-up will include the new Carnival, which is nearing its launch date in the country, as well as a new EV model to be added in the future.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Kia will collaborate with its partners to provide customised offerings. In 2018, Kia worked with Spanish energy company, Repsol, to establish a car-sharing service called ‘WiBLE’. Currently operating with a fleet of 500 Niro plug-in electric hybrids (PHEVs), it allows customers to rent and return vehicles at designated locations on a ‘free-floating’ system. Kia plans to provide a multi-modal service in the future, which will offer multiple means of travel, like public transport and car-sharing.

Later this year, the manufacturer also intends to launch a dealer mobility service in Italy and Russia. This will enable dealers to rent out vehicles for any period, from a single day up to a full year. Kia hopes to gradually go global with the offering in future.

In the US, the company plans to accelerate the electrification of its fleet and enhance cooperation with its mobility partners. The carmaker provided 200 Niro EVs to Lyft last year and this year it supplied 44 Niro HEVs to MoceanLab, Hyundai Motor Group’s mobility service company.

In emerging markets, the South Korean manufacturer has partnered with companies like Ola, India’s largest ride-hailing company, Revv, an Indian car-sharing company, and Grab, Southeast Asia’s largest ride-hailing company. Through these partnerships, Kia hopes to better understand the needs of its customers in the development of future vehicles.

Purple M

Investing further in mobility solutions, Kia has also partnered up with CODE42.ai, a technology firm focused on the transition to autonomous Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS). Together, they have launched a joint venture called Purple M.

This new company aims to establish a flexible e-mobility platform, as well as develop a sustainable EV ecosystem. While consumer interest in EVs is on the rise, mobility services are still driven primarily by ICE vehicles. Kia reasons that this leaves room for an e-mobility ‘first mover’.

‘With the newly established Purple M, Kia will be reborn as a leader for the era of e-mobility,’ said Song. ‘CODE42.ai is a leading Korean company in the field of future innovation technology, and is the best partner for successfully promoting a differentiated e-mobility service business.’

Purple M will use CODE42.ai’s Urban Mobility Operating System (UMOS), a cloud-based platform that integrates autonomous vehicles and air transportation services. This includes e-hailing, fleet management, demand-responsive shuttles and smart logistics.

‘Our goal is to accelerate the era of electric vehicles through Purple M,’ said Chang Song of CODE42.ai. ‘The integrated mobility and logistics platform UMOS will be central to building an e-mobility ecosystem encompassing everything from infrastructure to services.’

The two companies will use the new platform to establish further collaborative partnerships with specialist providers, hoping to develop a flexible e-mobility infrastructure. In particular, Purple M aims to help revitalise South Korea’s domestic mobility industry. It hopes to achieve this by cooperating with mobility market players while presenting new standards in what Kia calls ‘the post-coronavirus (COVID-19) era’.

COVID-19 complications

Currently, manufacturers are having to focus on EV production to keep in step with emissions regulations. But as the COVID-19 economic downturn means fewer people will have the money to buy expensive vehicles, traditional means of car ownership might be questioned by consumers.

This, arguably, is exactly what services like Purple M have been designed for – a chance to challenge the status quo of ownership. Why own an expensive EV when you can rent one as and when you need it?

On the other hand, there may be some reluctance to make use of these offerings straight away. As consumers seek to avoid public transport and contact with other people, shared-mobility services may suffer the same fate. Providers like Purple M will need to routinely disinfect shared vehicles in order to reassure customers.

What is more, as offices remain closed to prevent further spread, fewer people will need a vehicle to commute. More broadly, if lockdowns continue to be intermittently enforced, travel will take a nosedive across the board. Until a vaccine is created, there will continue to be less person-to-person interaction and, consequently, far fewer journeys.

So, in the short term, the mobility services offered by the likes of Kia might be facing an uphill battle. But in the long term, consumers may recognise the potential of breaking free from traditional forms of car ownership and only pay for a car when they have an immediate need for one.

How has COVID-19 impacted residual values in Europe?

It has been almost seven months since the first official coronavirus (COVID-19) case was reported in Europe. Since then, governments across the continent have put procedures in place that had never been seen before. Whole countries locked down, travel bans were implemented and entire industries stopped as countries raced to reduce their rates of infection.

The automotive industry was particularly hard hit by the outbreak and resulting lockdowns. Vehicle production stopped, and dealerships closed, bringing a halt to sales. Since these lockdowns have eased, it is starting to become clearer how markets are reacting.

Yet questions remain. Will incentive schemes across Europe present additional residual value (RV) risk? How severe an economic decline should we expect towards the end of 2021? Are there still hopes of a V-shaped recovery?

To provide further insight into how the automotive market is reacting in the wake of COVID-19 lockdowns, and the impact the economic turmoil is having, or could have, on RVs, Autovista Group is holding a webinar: COVID-19 residual value impact – where are we now?

The 45-minute session is taking place on 16 September at 11.00 CEST (10.00 BST) and will see a number of Autovista Group’s experts, representing markets across Europe, come together to discuss the current state of the automotive market and the effect on RVs. Topics to be discussed include:

  • Europe’s three main scenarios for used-car market reactions
  • The latest outlook for residual-value performance across Europe
  • What is happening in your country and what it means for RVs
  • How markets are responding in the recovery phase
  • What you need to know for successful RV scenario planning and risk management

‘With the COVID-19 threat still present around the world, it is essential for businesses to have up-to-date information to help them understand the current situation and navigate through whatever the future holds,’ commented Phil Curry, Autovista Group Daily Brief editor and chair of the webinar. ‘When economic problems strike, the automotive industry is often particularly affected, yet there is more of an opportunity for used-car sales during these times, so having the latest information on RVs and the outlook for markets across Europe is essential, especially in these unprecedented times.’

To register for the free Autovista Group Webinar: COVID-19 residual value impact – where are we now? click here and fill in your details.

In-car touchscreens as distracting as a mobile phone?

In-car infotainment systems appear to be expanding endlessly across cockpits, becoming more technologically advanced as they go. Examples range from the Honda e’s dashboard-wide multimedia suite to Tesla’s titanic touchscreen-driven approach. While this is great news for gadget lovers, it does raise issues around driver concentration.

Andy Cutler, car editor of forecast values at Glass’s, the UK arm of Autovista Group, recognises the increasingly distracting nature of touchscreen technology. He argues that drivers now need to navigate a number of on-screen menus to adjust features like climate control, even though this can be far more distracting than simply locating a physical button. Any time the driver spends looking away from the road is dangerous, and touchscreens have the potential to elongate this hazardous period.

Reaction times

This position was supported by the findings of a study published by the UK’s Transport Research Laboratory back in March. It found that the latest in-vehicle infotainment systems can impair driving reaction times more than alcohol and cannabis use. Reaction times slow by 12% at the drink-drive limit, which then decreases to 21% with cannabis. While using a touchscreen display with Android Auto or Apple CarPlay however, reaction times were more than 50% slower.

During the study, many participants realised the system was distracting them and tried to compensate by slowing down, for example. However, their performance was still adversely affected, with drivers unable to maintain a constant distance with the vehicle in front, reacting more slowly to sudden occurrences and deviating from their lane.

Drivers who took their eyes off the road for as long as 16 seconds while driving and using touch controls resulted in reaction times that were worse than texting while driving (35% slower reaction time). Some also underestimated the amount of time they spent looking away from the road by as much as five seconds when engaged with these infotainment systems.

Tesla touchscreen trouble

A German court case has highlighted the turning tide against this technology. A ruling was passed down that Tesla’s touchscreen controls should be treated as a distracting electronic device. The judgement was made as part of a case concerning a collision where the driver had been trying to adjust the windscreen-wiper settings.

The defendant found himself facing a fine and a ban, under the same rules used to prosecute those found using a mobile phone behind the wheel.

In March this year, the Higher Regional Court in Karlsruhe, known as the Oberlandesgericht (OLG) in German, heard a case that stemmed from a collision almost a year previously, a legal blog revealed. A Tesla Model 3 driver had been out in the rain when the car’s automated wipers activated.

Their speed can be automatically adjusted by the car to compensate for the amount of rainfall. However, manually changing the intervals is done via the central touchscreen in the middle of the cockpit, rather than on a button or dial.

In this case, the Tesla driver had to navigate software menus to choose from one of five settings after touching an icon on the screen. The court said that due to the ‘resulting loss of vision from the traffic’, the driver left his lane and ended up in an embankment, colliding with a sign and several trees.

The ruling

Following the incident, the driver was initially handed a €200 fine and a one-month ban from driving by a local court. This penalty came into line with the rules surrounding the use of a mobile phone while driving, namely, ‘Improper Use of an Electronic Device in Accordance with Section 23 (1a) of the Road Traffic Regulations.’ But the driver argued that the wiper controls were a safety-related feature which he needed to access, and so appealed to the OLG.

However, the higher court denied the appeal, agreeing with the initial ruling. It found that ‘the touchscreen (permanently installed in the vehicle of the Tesla brand) is an electronic device in the sense of § 23 Para, it does not matter what purpose the driver pursues with the operation.’

‘The setting of the functions required to operate the motor vehicle via the touchscreen (here: setting the wiping interval of the windshield wiper) is therefore only permitted if the view is only briefly adjusted to the screen for road, traffic, visibility and weather conditions and at the same time a corresponding turn away from the traffic is connected.’

So according to this ruling, a fixed touchscreen is an electronic device, even if it is only being used to adjust the wiper speed. The Daily Brief did reached out to Tesla for comment about this verdict, but the company has yet to respond.

Alternative cockpit systems

So manufacturers might need to take stock of touchscreen alternatives. This could mean multifunction dials on the steering wheel or a voice-activated command system, capable of carrying out tasks quickly and effectively.

For example, Polestar’s Precept concept boasts a 15-inch screen with Google Assistant providing advanced speech technology. However, vital information is displayed on a separate nine-inch horizontal display that utilises eye-tracking technology, allowing on-screen adjustments based on where the driver is looking.

Launch Report: Mercedes-Benz GLA

The GLA is a well-established name for Mercedes-Benz, and the second-generation model (H247) has a more defined SUV shape than its predecessor. The new car is taller, slightly broader, and has a longer wheelbase, providing a more SUV-like entry and seating position as well as very good headroom and improved interior space.

The model has not grown in length overall but is still the longest of its premium competitors and is more easily differentiated from the A-Class. Its design is also strong enough to differentiate it from the GLB.

The new GLA has adopted the technologies introduced in the latest A-Class and, as a result, is the newest and most up-to-date crossover in the segment. Compared to its direct competitors, the GLA’s fuel consumption is rather low, with similar figures to less powerful engines offered on competitor models, and a petrol plug-in hybrid (PHEV) drivetrain has been added. However, the petrol and diesel engines are currently only offered with automatic transmission and so entry prices are comparatively high.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the Mercedes-Benz GLA in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.

We present new prices, forecast residual values and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Launch Report Mercedes-Benz GLA

UK looks to introduce autonomous driving system from 2021

The UK Government has launched a ‘call for evidence’ to help shape innovative autonomous systems that could be used on the country’s roads as early as next year.

The plans relate to the Automated Lane-Keeping System (ALKS), which takes over control of a vehicle at low speeds, keeping it in lane, especially on dual-carriageways and motorways. The technology is designed to enable drivers to delegate the task of driving the vehicle – a first for the automotive market in the UK.

When activated, the system keeps the vehicle within its lane, controlling its movements for extended periods of time without the driver needing to do anything. However, they must be ready and able to resume control when prompted by the vehicle.

Following the approval of the ALKS Regulation in June 2020 by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE- of which the UK is a member) – the technology is likely to be available in cars entering the UK market from spring 2021.

Safety first

The government is seeking industry views on the role of the driver and proposed rules on the use of this system to pave the way towards its safe introduction, within the current legal framework. The call for evidence will ask whether vehicles using this technology should be legally defined as an automated vehicle, which would mean the technology provider would be responsible for the safety of the vehicle when the system is engaged, rather than the driver.

There is also a question regarding the use of ALKS at speeds of up to 70mph, the national speed limit in the UK.

‘[Autonomous technology] could make our roads safer,’ commented secretary of state for transport Grant Shapps. ‘In 2018, 85% of road collisions in the UK that resulted in injury involved human error. Automated vehicles could reduce these errors as they will not get tired or distracted.

‘I want the UK to be the first country to see these benefits and to encourage manufacturers to deploy this transformative technology on our roads by delivering the right environment for it to thrive. We are already familiar and comfortable with automation in aircraft, and I am keen that we embrace it on our roads too.’

Direction needed

With the UK leaving the European Union, the country is looking to become a leader in various technologies as a way of highlighting its economy, trade prospects and make a name for itself as it develops its own path on the international stage. The government has often spoken about becoming a leader in electric vehicle (EV) technology, specifically batteries. However, with various projects in Europe already underway, and carmakers running their own research, that target is going to be difficult to achieve.

Becoming the first country in Europe to adopt autonomous technologies for use in everyday situations could inspire companies to focus their research and development opportunities in the UK. Introducing ALKS will show favourability to legislation over driverless systems when other countries are still trying to untangle the red tape surrounding them.

‘Automated technology could make driving safer, smoother and easier for motorists and the UK should be the first country to see these benefits, attracting manufacturers to develop and test new technologies,’ added transport minister Rachel Maclean.

‘The UK’s work in this area is world-leading, and the results from this call for evidence could be a significant step forward for this exciting technology.’

Ready to go

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: ‘Autonomous vehicle technologies, of which automated lane-keeping is the latest, will be life-changing, making our journeys safer and smoother than ever before and helping prevent some 47,000 serious accidents and save 3,900 lives over the next decade.

‘This advanced technology is ready for roll out in new models from as early as 2021, so today’s announcement is a welcome step in bringing the regulation up to speed so that the UK can be among the first to grasp the benefits of this road safety revolution.’

The UK Government plans to launch a public consultation later this year on the detail of any changes to legislation and The Highway Code that are proposed following the completion of the call for evidence.

Lucid Motors looks to set ‘new standards’

Lucid Motors is seeking to set ‘new standards’ for sustainable transportation. Having recently announced the upcoming Lucid Air sedan can achieve an estimated range of 517 miles (832km) under US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) testing, the California-based startup might just be able to go the distance.

Additional reports indicate that the luxury electric-vehicle (EV) maker is nearing completion of its factory in Arizona. The company also confirmed it has plans for the next generation of EVs that could follow its all-electric sedan.

Setting a benchmark

The Lucid Air set a benchmark EPA range of 517 miles with FEV North America, in Michigan. As an independent service provider of vehicle and powertrain development, FEV applied the EPA’s multicycle test procedure. The carmaker said that ‘the results confirm that the Lucid Air is the longest-range electric vehicle to date.’

The EPA’s range assessment focuses on long-distance cruising, given the US’s long highways. Meanwhile, the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) used in Europe, emphasises a start-stop driving style, which is more common on the continent.

‘I am delighted that the Lucid Air has been independently verified by FEV to achieve an estimated EPA range of 517 miles, and that this landmark in the history of EV development has been achieved entirely through Lucid’s in-house technology,’ said Peter Rawlinson, CEO and CTO of Lucid Motors.

‘I believe that our 900-volt architecture, our race-proven battery packs, miniaturised motors and power electronics, integrated transmission systems, aerodynamics, chassis and thermal systems, software, and overall system efficiency has now reached a stage where it collectively sets a new standard and delivers a host of ‘world’s firsts,’ he said.

Producing some of the longest-range EVs on the market, Tesla recently announced its Model S Long Range Plus achieved an EPA range of 402 miles. This equals a 20% range increase when compared to a Model S 100D from 2019, with the same battery pack design. While the Lucid Air can travel 100 miles further, Tesla claims its upcoming Roadster will boast a range of 620 miles. However, it now looks like the Roadster is unlikely to go on sale before 2022 as Tesla’s focus remains on the Model Y, the Cybertruck, and the Gigafactory in Berlin.

Rising range

The earlier ‘alpha’ prototype of the Lucid Air originally sported a range of 400 miles. The carmaker explained it was able to gain another 100 miles through proprietary technology and careful engineering.

The drivetrain was built in-house with Lucid miniaturising and integrating the Air’s motors, transmission and inverter. This was then paired with a 900-volt architecture to achieve compactness and efficiency. Lucid said battery packs were the result of ‘10 years of experience and over 20 million miles of real-world testing.’

Atieva, Lucid’s technology division, also played a big part given that it supplies battery packs to the Formula E racing series. The battery system, therefore, provides increased safety, performance, and energy density in a form sculpted around the cabin.

‘Range and efficiency are widely recognised as the most relevant proof points by which EV technical prowess is measured,’ said Rawlinson. ‘A few years ago, we revealed our alpha prototypes of the Lucid Air and promised over 400 miles range; a reflection of our technology at that time. In the intervening period, we have achieved a series of technological breakthroughs, culminating in an unsurpassed degree of energy efficiency.’

‘I am therefore pleased that we have consequently achieved an estimated EPA 517 miles of range today whilst also significantly reducing our battery pack’s capacity, thereby reducing vehicle weight and cost, and improving interior space. Such exceptional efficiency, achieved through in-house technology, is undeniably a measure of a true EV tech company,’ he concluded.

While customer deliveries are not scheduled until early 2021, the Lucid Air’s online reveal event on 9 September is fast approaching. Here, information about the vehicle’s final interior and exterior design will be announced as well as product specifications, available configurations and pricing.

Nearly finished factory

After breaking ground in early December 2019, construction has nearly finished on Lucid’s factory in Casa Grande, Arizona, with plans to install a pilot production line there later this month. It is here the startup will begin manufacturing ‘Beta 2’ models that will closely resemble the production models that will reach customers next spring, according to Green Car Reports (GCR).

Rawlinson told GCR that it is the first purpose-built EV factory in North America, built in record time. It will have taken eight months from there being no factory at all, to an operational one with cars coming off the production line.

In an email to Autovista Group, a Lucid spokesperson explained that this has been achieved by focusing on the initial phase of construction, which would allow the startup to meet a more modest manufacturing capacity in its first year of production. 

‘We felt a greenfield factory was appropriate for Lucid so we could ensure production efficiencies at every stage of the company’s growth,’ the spokesperson wrote. ‘For the first phase, we’re constructing an 820,000 sq. ft. facility that will include manufacturing, assembly, storage and central utility, and employ around 750 workers.’

‘Production capacity for phase one is approximately 34,000 units per year. For phase two and beyond, the company will expand construction as higher sales volumes dictate, with the land in Casa Grande allowing for production growth of up to 400,000 units per year,’ they added.

More models

Rawlinson also confirmed with GCR that Lucid plans to produce an SUV, which shares the Air’s platform as well as its production line. Currently, the hope is to get this model into production by early 2023. He explained that the drive behind this move was creating economies of scale that will help grow the business.

GCR hinted that once this has been achieved, the advanced technologies featured in the Lucid Air could make its way into a more affordable vehicle. When asked about the potential for a more affordable vehicle, the spokesperson told Autovista Group ‘we are exploring all options for a full line up of Lucid vehicles, including vehicles that start below $100,000 (roughly €83,000).’ However, they stated ‘no additional information can be shared at this time.’

Large and established automotive companies find themselves needing to convert factories, redesign model lines and even call in specialist help to work out the fine details of EV production. Technology companies like Lucid and Tesla, on the other hand, benefit from having their roots firmly planted in EV soil. But entering the market in the first place can be hugely expensive, meaning the startups lean towards luxury models. This makes establishing economies of scale essential so they can work their way back down the cost tree, expanding their market share with more affordable EVs.

Used-car transactions grow across Europe in July

The latest data from the respective associations in the major continental European markets reveal that the volume of used-car transactions grew in July 2020 compared to the same month last year. Autovista Group senior data journalist Neil King considers this return to growth across Europe’s used-car markets as the sector tentatively recovers from the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

Used-car sales increased by 13% year-on-year in both France and Germany in July, and were up 9% in Italy and 6% in Spain. Through to July, Germany is the only major European used-car market that has not suffered a double-digit decline, with a comparatively modest contraction of 8%.

Used-car data is not yet available for the UK for July but is expected to follow the growth trend, especially given the 11% surge in new-car registrations in the country’s first full month of trading since February. This is even without increased buying incentives, which have been introduced in France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

Used-car transactions, year-on-year percentage change, July and year-to-date 2020

Used-car transactions, year-on-year percentage change, July and year-to-date 2020

Sources: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, GANVAM/IEA

Outperforming new-car registrations

Prior to the positive results last month, the volume of used-car transactions declined in the first half of 2020 compared to H1 2019 in all five major European markets. However, the downturns in the first half of 2020 were not as dramatic as the contractions in new-car registrations.

Used-car transactions and new-car registrations, year-on-year percentage change, H1 2020

Gebrauchtwagen-Transaktionen und Neuzulassungen, Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr in Prozent, H1 2020

Sources: CCFA, KBA, ANFIA, ANFAC, GANVAM/IEA, SMMT

In the UK, the used-car market contracted by 28.7% in the first half of 2020, according to the latest figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) on 11 August. Following a comparatively modest decline of 8.3% in the first quarter of 2020 as the COVID-19 lockdown from March negated growth in January and February, there were only 1,039,303 changes of ownership in the second quarter, equating to a 48.9% slump in the second quarter. However, ‘the pace of decline eased as the quarter progressed, from a peak year-on-year loss of 74.2% in April to 17.5% in June, as private sellers and buyers got back on the move and transactions began to restart,’ the SMMT stated.

‘As devastating as these figures are, with full lockdown measures in place for the whole of April and May, they are not surprising. As the UK starts to get back on the move again and dealerships continue to re-open, we expect to see more activity return to the market, particularly as many people see cars as a safe and reliable way to travel during the pandemic. However, if we’re to re-energise sales and the fleet renewal needed to drive environmental gains, support will be needed for the broader economy in order to bolster business and consumer confidence,’ commented Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.

Continental transactions

There were similar contractions of the used-car market in Spain and Italy. Spain suffered the most, with 31.7% fewer changes of ownership in the first half of 2020 than a year earlier, but new-car registrations declined by more than 50%. There was a phased approach to relaxing the lockdown measures in Spain, which largely explains why both the new- and used-car markets were still weak, even in June. However, dealers can now fully reopen, and the introduction of the MOVES II incentive scheme for new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in electric hybrids (PHEVs) and the RENOVE scrappage scheme have stimulated the Spanish market since their introduction in early July.

Used-car demand fell 31.6% year-on-year in Italy in the first half of 2020, compared to a 46.1% contraction of the new-car market. However, many buyers of both new and used cars decided to hold off until government incentives came into effect at the beginning of August as part of the Decreto Rilancio (Relaunch Decree). This new scheme comes on top of the Ecobonus scheme, which incentivises cars producing less than 20g of CO2/km.

Electric and hybrid cars can now benefit from up to €10,000 in subsidies when scrapping an older vehicle. €3,500 is now provided for scrapping vehicles that are at least 10 years old when buying a new Euro 6 vehicle with CO2 emissions up to 110g/km, and a price of up to €40,000. Dealers will put forward €2,000 towards the incentive, while the state provides €1,500. Without trading in an older model, the funds drop to €1,750.

In France, the 17.4% decline in used-car sales in the first half of 2020 was a significantly better performance than the 38.6% fall in new-car registrations. Whereas the incentives introduced on 1 June for new BEVs and PHEVs remain, the additional bonus for trading in older cars for cleaner new and used cars was exhausted before the end of July. The scrappage scheme reached its 200,000-vehicle cap after just two months, but the Ministry of Ecological Transition announced it would be replacing the recovery scheme with a conversion bonus, applicable from 3 August.

Germany has weathered the COVID-19 storm better than the other major European markets, with only 11.4% fewer changes of ownership in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period last year. New-car registrations have also suffered less than in the other major markets, but were still down 34.5% in the first half, and have therefore been outperformed by used-car demand here too.

Residual-value resilience

As used-car markets have proven more resilient than new-car markets, the impact on residual values (RVs) has been rather marginal in European markets so far this year. Nevertheless, a ‘three-speed’ development of residual values (RVs) is emerging. The UK and France are benefitting from pent-up demand and some markets have had a rapid reaction to the impact of COVID-19, but most are ‘late starters’ with limited value movements thus far.

Autovista Group - Restwert-Intelligence Coronavirus-Tracker

Source: Autovista Group – Residual Value Intelligence Coronavirus Tracker

As COVID-19 lockdowns are left behind, thoughts turn to economic recovery. However, as the latest update to the Autovista Group whitepaper ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ explains, in the last month, the situation has taken a gloomier turn. Download your copy here.

Schwacke Newcomer August 2020 – Neue Modelle im Forecast

Vollkommen unter Strom – Elektro in S, M und XL

Im August haben wir wieder Restwertprognosen für interessante Fahrzeugneuerscheinungen in unsere Datenbank aufgenommen:

  • Honda e
  • Mercedes-Benz EQV
  • Volkswagen ID.3

Honda e – Retrolektrisch

Der Honda-Mischkonzern ist in Deutschland stärker durch Motorräder bekannt und mit 0,4% PKW-Marktanteil verhältnismäßig unauffällig. Relativ große Aufmerksamkeit erlangte dagegen auf den letzten beiden IAA ein „Urban EV Concept“ genanntes, etwas retro anmutendes Concept Car aus Tokio. Relativ nah an dieser Studie kommt nur ein Jahr später der Honda e auf den Markt. Zwar haben es die hinten angeschlagenen Türen und der von außen ablesbare Batterieladestand nicht in die Serie geschafft. Aber dennoch hat der – nun klassisch fünftürige – vollelektrische Kleinwagen ein paar interessante Features zu bieten. So ist das Cockpit über die gesamte Fahrzeugbreite mit Digitaldisplays belegt. Die beiden äußeren kleinen Bildschirme gehören dabei zu den digitalen Außenspiegeln, die bisher nur in höheren Segmenten zu finden waren. Die berührungsempfindlichen Türöffner ohne Griffe aus der Studie sind zumindest als versenkbare Griffe in Serie gegangen. Nicht unbedingt schön, aber praktisch ist zudem der unter einer Klappe in der Haube befindliche Ladeanschluss, der unabhängig von der Seite der Ladesäule den Stecker leicht zugänglich macht. Man darf halt nur nicht rückwärts ranfahren. Das größte Manko dürfte der Preis in Kombination mit recht knapper Reichweite und Kofferraum sein. Renault Zoe, Opel Corsa-e und Peugeot e208 starten da deutlich günstiger bei erheblich größerer Reichweite und mit mehr Platz für Gepäck. Mini electric und Mazda MX-30 liegen zwar preislich, reichweitentechnisch und stauraummäßig ähnlich, haben aber eine erheblich stärkere Markenwahrnehmung in Deutschland. Der knuffige Japaner wird es also schwer haben, aber Honda-Kunden sind loyal und setzen auf solide Qualität. Es gibt also einen kleinen Markt für diesen durchaus interessanten Beitrag zur Elektromobilität.

Mercedes-Benz EQV – Sternen-Raumkreuzer

Mit dem EQV beschreitet Mercedes weiterhin einen etwas anderen Weg als seine direkten Wettbewerber. Wo Audi und BMW bisher namentlich und technisch eigene Modellreihen kreieren, setzen die Stuttgarter auf bestehende Fahrzeugkonzepte und implantieren die notwendige Technik. Mit diesem Modell belegen Sie damit allerdings ein Segment, das wohl kaum jemand so richtig als prioritär und prädestiniert für die Vollelektrifizierung erachtet hätte. So ist der EQV aktuell – noch – kaum im Wettbewerb. Dabei kann er auf viele gute Gene der V-Klasse bauen. Massig Platz und Flexibilität, hochwertiges Interieur und Premium-Service sind Gründe, warum die Verbrenner-Kunden den Mehrpreis zu Multivan/Caravelle und Tourneo Custom neu wie gebraucht bereitwillig zahlen. Außerdem dürfen sich EQV-Kunden, anders als Ihre stromlosen Brüder sogar an MBUX erfreuen. Auch die Reichweite erscheint auf dem Papier mit über 300km akzeptabel. Aber es bleibt abzuwarten, wie es sich damit verhält, wenn das elektrische Raumwunder seiner eigentlichen Bestimmung zugeführt wird: größere Mengen Personen und Gepäck zu transportieren. Dazu kommen die überschaubaren Fahrleistungen, die mangels Endgeschwindigkeit und Durchzug bei höheren Geschwindigkeiten eher etwas Geduld und Nervenstärke auf längeren Autobahntouren erfordern. Tugenden, die man den meist gut motorisierten V-Klassen eher weniger nachsagt. Mit einem üppigen Einstiegspreis von über 70.000€ und umfangreicher Aufpreisliste ist der EQV zwar nicht so teuer wie Tesla X und S und deutlich geräumiger, aber eben auch kein Schnäppchen. Gebraucht fehlen noch wirksame staatliche Anreize, sodass EQV-Käufer vor allem eines sein werden: Überzeugungstäter.

Volkswagen ID.3 – Schwere Geburt

Volkswagen hat sich einiges vorgenommen. Seit der Dieselkrise ist der Konzern und mit ihm die Kernmarke unter dem Druck, sich tiefgreifend zu verändern. Ein Element dieser Reorganisation ist neben dem Markenauftritt der Umbau zu einem digitalen Unternehmen und ein weiteres die vielbeschworene Elektromobilität. Der ID.3 steht exemplarisch für beides und bildet produktseitig den Startschuss für eine komplett neue Produktreihe, die Deutschland ein bezahlbares vollelektrisches Fahrzeug – also einen echten Volks-Wagen – bescheren soll. Bisher verlief der Start recht unrund. Zwar wurden in der Phase vor dem Start alle Marketing-Register gezogen, aber Probleme in Produktion und Lieferung, dazu die Corona-bedingten Ausfälle, hätten sich die Wolfsburger sicher nicht so gewünscht. Nichtsdestotrotz ist der ID.3 ein technisch gutes Auto geworden. Ordentlich Reichweite, viel Platz, ein hinterradantriebsbedingt städtetauglicher Wendekreis und solide Verarbeitung sprechen für ihn. Auch die digitalen Features wie beispielsweise das Head-up Display mit Augmented Reality-Funktionen sind Highlights für einen Volumenhersteller. Doch die teure Technik hat buchstäblich ihren Preis. Insbesondere bei der Materialauswahl im Innenraum ist gespart worden. Ein ähnliches Phänomen ist bei seinem Vetter Golf 8 zu beobachten, aber der Rotstift regierte beim ID gefühlt deutlich stärker. Der Einstiegspreis ist wiederum eine Kampfansage. Liegen in dem Preisbereich sonst die Elektro-Kleinwagen wie Zoe oder Corsa-e, kommt man unter Einbeziehung der Innovationsprämie ohne Ausstattung schon nahe an die 20.000 € Grenze heran. Für einen Kompakten Stromer aus Wolfsburg höchst ungewöhnlich und wohl Ausdruck der Entschlossenheit des Konzerns. Die Erwartungen sind hoch, extern wie intern. Am Ende sollte man aber nicht vergessen, dass selbst die Zulassungsprognosen von IHS für das Jahr 2025 der gesamten ID-Modellreihe zusammen genommen lediglich 25% am VW-Portfolio zutrauen. Wir sind also erst am zaghaften Beginn einer E-Transformation des Marktes.

Newcomer August 2020

Schwacke Insights August 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Im Juli schon von Entspannung zu sprechen ist vielleicht ein bisschen zu früh, aber in Richtung Sommer erholen sich die Verkaufszahlen besser als im Neuwagenbereich und Preisindizes sind eher positiv für klassische Verbrenner. Dennoch sind viele Vergleichs-KPIs im roten Bereich und die elektrifizierten Antriebe – mit Ausnahme Vollhybrid – setzen ihren corona-unabhängigen Sinkflug weiter fort.

Besserung ist auch nicht in Sicht. Die Innovationsprämie macht neue Elektrofahrzeuge und PHEVs aktuell günstig und lässt damit von jung nach alt die Gebrauchten sinken. Schließlich wollen GW-Kunden immer noch in Relation günstiger wegkommen mit ihrem Kauf. Außerdem fehlen denen wirkliche Kaufanreize und Vorteile während des Betriebs. So steigen die Verkaufsvolumen nur moderat und werden durch wachsenden Nachschub „überaufgefüllt“. Krisenbedingt spät, aber noch in der Saison: Schnelldreher-Cabrios.

Insights August 2020

Podcast: Running the numbers on incentives, registrations and residual values

The Autovista Group Daily Brief Team discusses the biggest automotive news stories of the last fortnight. In this episode, Tom Geggus talks incentive schemes, Neil King reviews registration figures and returning special guest Christof Engelskirchen wraps up residual values.

https://soundcloud.com/autovistagroup/running-the-numbers-on-incentives-registrations-and-residual-values

You can also listen and subscribe to receive further episodes direct to your mobile device on Apple, Spotify and Google Podcasts.

The long road to autonomy

Only a few years ago, the prospect of self-driving cars seemed tantalisingly close. But work on the complex technology looks to be ongoing. Autovista Group Daily Brief journalist Tom Geggus considers the future of the ‘future of transport’.

It has not escaped the attention of major media outlets that 2020 was supposed to be the year of the self-driving car. The likes of Bloomberg, the New York Times and Vox have all pointed to the absence of autonomous vehicles on the roads.

News of the technology’s development saturated the last decade. Reports of Google secretively working on an autonomous car surfaced in 2010. In 2015, Toyota announced plans to launch automated driving technologies by around 2020. Two years later, Honda projected it would have highway-based self-driving capabilities by this year. Last year, Elon Musk estimated that by mid-2020, Tesla’s self-drive systems would allow drivers to not pay attention to the road.

Recondite regulations

So while consumers readied themselves for more free time behind the wheel, it appeared the technology encountered some roadblocks. For one, navigating even mid-level autonomous technology through complex and ill-defined legal systems appears to be an ongoing issue for developers.

In May, Audi announced it would not be featuring a Level 3 system in the new A8, as it had planned to only a few years earlier. The carmaker pointed to issues with legal structures, explaining none currently exist for its system. More recently, Tesla was banned from using advertisements in Germany that reference its ‘Autopilot’ system as a fully-autonomous driving experience. A court in Munich decided the adverts, which stated Tesla vehicles had ‘full potential for autonomous driving’ and ‘Autopilot inclusive’ were ‘misleading’.

Goggo Network is looking to develop a legal and engineering framework of European autonomous mobility networks. One of the company’s founders, Martin Varsavsk recently appeared in an online Move seminar. He said that Europe is currently ‘greatly behind’ in terms of autonomous-vehicle regulation, which was interesting as it represents the world’s largest transportation market in monetary terms.

However, this is a claim the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) would likely dispute. According to its latest industry pocket guide, Europe leads the world when it comes to self-driving vehicles, responsible for a third of all global patent applications. Even if this is the case, more defined regulations would only stand to benefit those filing patents as well as those developing the resulting technology.

Fortunately, there has been some recent progress. In June, the United Nations announced some 60 countries had reached a mobility milestone. These nations agreed to adopt the first binding international regulation on Level 3 vehicle automation. Entering into force in January 2021, it will apply to automated lane-keeping systems (ALKS) in passenger cars. It sets out performance-based requirements that must be met by manufacturers before ALKS-equipped vehicles can be sold within the countries. For example, under the regulation, non-essential displays will need to be automatically suspended when the driver has to take back control.

The coronavirus conundrum

Coronavirus (COVID-19) has proven itself to be a double-edged sword when it comes to self-driving systems. On the one hand, manufacturers find themselves having to make sweeping cuts to tackle the financial implications of months of shutdowns. In April, self-driving ride-sharing company Lyft announced it was cutting its workforce by 17%, equalling 982 employees. It stated this move was made to reduce operating costs, in light of the ongoing economic challenges posed by the pandemic. Reports of redundancies at Zoox also surfaced, with 120 people estimated to have lost their jobs in the same month.

On the other hand, social distancing looks to remain a cornerstone of COVID-19 spread prevention. This means self-driving systems could be more important than ever, particularly where last-mile deliveries are concerned. In San Francisco, self-driving car company Cruise helped make contactless food deliveries to vulnerable communities. The UK also saw autonomous drop-offs, as miniaturised delivery vehicles from Starship Technologies transported food across the town of Milton Keynes.

Collaboration is key

Leaner budgets can have an upside too. Manufacturers that already invested large sums in self-driving systems are less likely to just throw in the towel. Instead, there is the potential to turn others in the industry, forming agreements and collaborations. In June, Volvo partnered with Waymo, while Amazon signed an agreement to acquire Zoox. More recently, Ford announced it would work more closely with Intel’s autonomous arm, Mobileye. These collaborative efforts will not only help share costs but knowledge, spurring the advance of autonomous technology.

AImotive is one of the largest independent teams in the world, developing automated driving technology. Working with partners like PSA Group, Volvo Cars and Samsung, the company focuses on three main industry challenges: software, processing hardware, as well as development and validation tools. Speaking with Autovista Group, Gabor Pongracz, product manager for AImotive, outlined how important collaboration has become key to the development of autonomous technology.

‘In the last couple of years, OEMs and tier ones have realised the complexity and the challenge of bringing automated driving to the roads is probably much larger than initially anticipated,’ he said. ‘It’s like this monolithic approach turned out not to work. Different companies have different strengths and weaknesses and it makes sense to combine these in order to overcome the challenges that we face.’

An automated driving platform has a complex ecosystem, he explained. But this leaves experts like AImotive to pioneer advances in software, allowing other companies to focus on their own strengths. From sensors to processing hardware and analysis software, simply developing self-driving systems can be challenging enough, let alone making the technology commercially viable. This is where industry collaboration comes into its own.

An autonomous accessory?

While some might consider self-driving technology a feature relatively exclusive to high-end luxury cars, its potential contribution to safety cannot be understated. In 2019, scientists at the UK’s Transport Research Laboratory estimated the expected mix of automated and non-automated vehicles on the roads by 2040 could lead to 22% fewer collisions.

Pongracz explained that autonomous drive solutions must first be safe themselves, meaning they must comply with strict safety standards. Secondly, self-driving systems are capable of relieving the driver from potentially tedious or fatiguing tasks, like long stretches of highway driving, allowing them to be more rested for urban areas.

‘Just imagine that you have a long daily commute to your work. You can let your car drive in the traffic jam on the highway, and you can relax, read something and when it comes to the city where simply the automation is not yet possible, you can take over the driving task and focus focused on the driving itself,’ he said.

Evidence of autonomous technology creating safer driving conditions is appearing. In Q2, Tesla recorded ‘one accident for every 4.53 million miles (7.29 million kilometres) driven, in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.’

‘For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.56 million miles driven,’ the carmaker went on to say. ‘By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data show that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles.’

Level 5 finale

When people dreamed of self-driving cars a decade ago, they probably imagined being chauffeured around by a robot car, leaving them to sit back and enjoy the entire ride without having to once lift a finger. Today this would be understood as Level 5 autonomy. In other words, a vehicle capable of performing all driving functions at all times.

With the likes of Audi struggling to establish a lower Level 3 system, it might seem implausible that anyone would be close to Level 5. But this is exactly what Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, claimed in July.

‘I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year,’ Musk told the World AI Conference in Shanghai. ‘I think there are no fundamental challenges remaining for level five autonomy.’ Tesla was approached by Autovista Group to expand on Mr Musk’s comments; however, the carmaker failed to do so prior to publication.

Discussing the advancement of autonomous technology, Pongracz identified manufacturers having to be more conservative with how they mapped out their autonomous roadmaps.

‘If we simply look back on some statements, where it was expected that you would have Level 4, Level 5 robot taxis roaming around the cities in 2020, that’s clearly not the case’, he said. ‘Essentially, all of the industry players have pushed back the timelines and created more conservative roadmaps for automation.’

So, while we may be waiting a while longer for advanced self-driving systems, this is where companies like AImotive and a sense of general cooperation can be a saving grace. By sharing the complex tasks that come with developing what could potentially be a lifesaving system, hopefully, it will not be too long until autonomous vehicles properly take to the roads.

Schwacke Insights Juli 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Der Juni zeigt weitere Erholungstendenzen von den Shutdown-Monaten und weist mit einem leicht gestiegenen Preisindex in eine gute Richtung. Auch die Besitzumschreibungen haben im letzten Monat ein überraschendes Plus gegenüber dem Vorjahr ausgewiesen.

Zwar ist das hinterlassene Umsatzloch noch groß und die Sorge vor einem Preiskampf im Herbst und Winter längst nicht vom Tisch. Aber Kunden kaufen derzeit und zahlen scheinbar angemessene Preise. Selbst die ohne Corona stark im Abschwung befindlichen Plug-In Hybride und Elektromobile gönnten sich eine Verschnaufpause.

Die ab Juni geltende Innovationsprämie und die mit der Mehrwertsteuersenkung einhergehenden verstärkten Neuwagennachlässe werden das GW-Preisniveau mittelfristig nach unten drücken. Auch bei den Schnelldrehern kehrt langsam Normalität ein, allerdings sind Modelle unter 40 Standtagen immer noch selten.

Schwacke Newcomer Juni 2020 – Neues Modell im Forecast – Lang, nicht weilig – Im Golf von Martorell

Im Juni haben wir wieder Restwertprognosen für eine interessante Fahrzeugneuerscheinung in unsere Datenbank aufgenommen:

  • Seat Leon

Seat Leon – The Sunny Side of Golf

Der Vorgänger des spanischen Newcomers konnte sich mit regelmäßig über 40.000 neuen Einheiten pro Jahr den ersten Platz innerhalb der Marke trotz SUV-Diversifikation sichern.

Fast jeder dritte neue deutsche Seat war ein Golf-Konkurrent. Die vierte Generation baut natürlich auch wieder auf der aktuellen MQB-Plattform auf, nutzt aber die längere Variante, auf dem bereits Konzernbruder Octavia steht und hat damit wichtige Zentimeter mehr zwischen den Rädern als Golf VIII und der neue Audi A3. Dieser Platz kommt vor allem der Rückbank zugute und fügt beim Kombi Sportstourer noch ein sehr üppiges Ladeabteil hinzu.

Größe ist allerdings nicht das erste, an das man beim Leon denkt. Design und Emotion sind besondere Stärken bei den vorherigen Generationen gewesen und auch der Jüngste schöpft da aus dem Vollen. In Martorell hat man sich größte Mühe gegeben, dass egal wo man hinschaut, das Auge auf schöne Details blickt. Außen dominiert Dynamik, mit der sportlichen Front, konturierter flacher Haube und schmalen Scheinwerfern. Die muskulöse Seitenlinie und das sportliche Heck mit auf Wunsch durchgehendem Leuchtenband und darin integrierter dritter Bremsleuchte machen großen Spaß beim Anschauen. Selbst der Modellschriftzug, der beim Leon schon immer zentriert auf der Heckklappe saß, bietet mit neuem natürlichen Schwung eine frische Idee, nachdem zahlreiche andere Hersteller auf diesen Zug mit sehr geradlinigen Lettern aufgesprungen waren.

Einzig kritikwürdig kann man die verlorene Einzigartigkeit der Front nennen, die – wenn man das Logo zuhielte – auch einem modernen Asiaten gehören könnte. Innen findet man viele aus den Geschwistern bekannte Elemente, jedoch ist auch hier versucht worden, die Gleichteile in dynamische Linien und Dashboards einzubetten.

Bedient wird nun überwiegend ohne Mechanik per Touchpads oder gleich ganz kontaktlos akustisch. Etwas anachronistisch muten da die Fensterheber und Spiegelschalter an, die einer älteren Generation zu entstammen scheinen und an manchen Stellen würde man sich wertigere Materialien oder eine optisch bessere Einpassung wünschen.

Das optionale umlaufende Ambientelichtband im Innenraum wiederum ist ein Highlight und erfüllt zugleich die Funktion der Ausstiegs- und Totwinkelwarnleuchte. Insgesamt muss man sich auch schon viel Mühe geben, am neuen Leon etwas zum Bemängeln zu finden. Was zur Abrundung der Palette zum Beispiel noch fehlt, sind Automatikgetriebe für kleinere Benziner und Diesel sowie die bereits in den Startlöchern stehenden Plug-In und Cupra Varianten und eine fahrdynamische Allradversion. Ansonsten: Vamos, Leon!

Schwacke Insights Juni 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Der Mai hat dem Markt insgesamt erneut schwer zugesetzt. Neuzulassungen und Besitzumschreibungen sind tief im Minus, aber es sind Zeichen der Erholung erkennbar.

Der Handel bleibt bei den Preisen besonnen und hält die angewachsenen Standzeiten aus. Relativ stabile Preise und ansteigende Verkäufe entspannen die Lage bei den Dreijährigen. Die nun abgesagte Kaufprämie auf Verbrenner löst ein wenig die Verspannung bei Neuwagen und jungen Gebrauchten, den älteren Elektrifizierten leistet allerdings die angekündigte Verdopplung einen Bärendienst.

Auch bei den verkauften Schnelldrehern tauchen wieder vermehrt – im doppelten Sinne – Modelle unter 40 Standtagen auf. Allerdings noch keine Volumenmodelle. Der Juni als letzter Monat vor der Ferienzeit wird kritisch sein und ein Gradmesser für den Rest des Jahres.

Schwacke Newcomer Mai 2020 – Neue Modelle im Forecast – Silent Launches – Der Krise zum Trotz

Im Mai haben wir wieder Restwertprognosen für interessante Fahrzeugneuerscheinungen in unsere Datenbank aufgenommen:

  • Audi A3 Sportback
  • Mazda MX-30
  • Toyota Proace City

 

Audi A3 Sportback – Zwischen Tradition und Moderne

Der Audi A3 trägt nicht nur die Nummer 3, sondern ist auch in der Palette der Ingolstädter an dritter Stelle in der Neuzulassungsstatistik und rangiert damit deutlich vor seinen kleinen SUVs-Verwandten. Entsprechend wichtig ist das Modell für die Marke, wenn auch die Mengendominanz vom Anfang der 2010er Jahre gegenüber A4 und A6 seit Mitte des Jahrzehnts passé ist. Naheliegend ist die technisch enge Verwandtschaft mit dem Konzernbruder Golf. Vom Leon und Octavia unterscheidet er sich damit allerdings „untenrum“ etwas deutlicher durch den kürzeren Radstand. Der Platz auf der Rückbank fällt damit etwas knapper aus, ist aber für Normalgewachsene immer noch völlig ausreichend. Die Domäne des Ringträgers ist auch traditionell eher das Kapitel Design und Qualitätsanmutung. Bei der Optik ist außen einiges passiert und die Front macht durch – ebenfalls ein Audi-Merkmal – eine ausgefallene Lichtsignatur auf sich aufmerksam. Die Frontscheinwerfer, die ein wenig an den e-tron erinnern, rahmen den niedrig angesetzten Single Frame Grill ein, der sich durch die vom A1 schon bekannten Schlitze von der Motorhaube trennt. Auch innen setzt sich eigenständiges und im Vergleich zu den Geschwistern durchaus progressives Layout fort. Das Infotainment stammt zwar technisch aus dem Konzernregal, aber in der Bedienung geht der A3 einen merklich anderen Weg. Wo bei Golf und Leon eine berührungsempfindliche Leiste unter dem großen Touchscreen Zukunft suggeriert, finden sich im A3 echte Schalter für Sitzheizung und Klimaanlage. Vorne hat man sogar einen USB-A Anschluss, den sich Wolfsburg und Martorell zum Leidwesen der Besitzer von weniger jungen Smartphones sparen. Beides wird so manchen konservativen Interessenten zum Audi tendieren lassen. Dreh-Drücksteller sind allerdings auch hier nicht mehr zu finden und durch ein smartes Touchpad zum Lautstärkeregeln ersetzt. Die technische Ausstattung ist nichtsdestotrotz auf dem aktuellen Stand. LED-Licht – auf Wunsch auch als Matrix-, Digital-Cockpit und reichlich Assistenten. Ein Highlight ist die in einigen wenigen Städten bereits funktionierende Car2x-Kommunikation, die z.B. Ampeln „lesen“ kann. Was noch fehlt sind stärkere Motoren, die Sportversionen und Automatikgetriebe bei den leistungsschwächeren Benzinern und Dieseln. Und wo wir gerade bei Motoren sind, Varianten mit Steckdose sucht man auch noch vergebens.

 

Mazda MX-30 – Der Reminiszent

Mazda feiert dieses Jahr sein 100stes Firmenjubiläum, das 1920 jedoch nicht mit Fahrzeugproduktion, sondern mit Kork-Herstellung und -Handel startete. Kork stellt auch die erste Reminiszenz des MX-30 dar. Dieses ungewöhnliche Material findet sich sowohl in der Mittelkonsole als auch im Türgriff. Auch die Modellbezeichnung MX kennen Mazda-Fans bereits. Bisher allerdings von sportlichen oder coupéhaften Modellen wie dem MX-5, oder den längst vergangenen MX-3 und MX-6 Coupés. Die Dachlinie ist entsprechend dem SUV-Zeitgeist folgend auch sportlich geschnitten. Die nächste Auffälligkeit findet ebenfalls eine Entsprechung in der Historie: Es sind die gegenläufig öffnenden Türen, die bereits im Wankel-Sportwagen RX-8 den Einstieg in die hintere Sitzreihe erleichterte und auch hier wieder die B-Säule überflüssig macht. Größentechnisch ist der MX-30 sehr nahe am gleichziffrigen CX-Pendant, hat aber natürlich aufgrund des vollelektrischen Antriebs ein anderes technisches Layout. Elektro-Enthusiasten werden vermutlich enttäuscht sein von Leistung und Reichweite, aber Mazda hat sein erstes Elektroauto der näheren Vergangenheit als urbanen und bezahlbaren SUV-Crossover konzipiert. Die geringere Batteriekapazität spart Gewicht und Kosten und die damit einhergehende geringere Reichweite von 200 WLTP-Kilometern reicht für diesen Zweck völlig aus und ist zudem auch schneller wieder „voll“. Am ehesten zu vergleichen ist der Japaner mit seiner koreanischen Konkurrenz. Der Kia e-Niro ist teurer bzw. weniger gut ausgestattet, hat aber einen größeren Kofferraum und benötigt trotz vergleichbarer Außenmaße weniger Platz zum Wenden. Der MX-30 zielt also auf eine relativ eng geschnittene Zielgruppe, die weniger praktisch, sondern eher designorientiert, überwiegend komfortabel und gut ausgestattet auf kurzen Strecken unterwegs sein will. Klingt verdächtig nach den sogenannten „Best Agern“, was für Mazdas Einstieg in die Elektromobilität keine schlechte Idee sein dürfte.

 

Toyota Proace City – Der Spät-(Selbst)-Zünder

Das Segment der leichten Nutzfahrzeuge ist in Deutschland und Europa seit jeher in fester Hand der europäischen Hersteller. Daran konnten auch die bisherigen Versuche asiatischer Produzenten über die meist in europäischen Werken gebauten Re-Badging-Modelle Fuß zu fassen, kaum etwas ändern. Einzig bei den Pickups hatten die fernöstlichen Wettbewerber eine Chance auf vordere Ränge. Zumindest bis VW mit dem Amarok antrat und gemeinsam mit Fords Ranger den deutschen Markt aufmischte. Aus Sicht Toyotas ist die 2013 begonnene Kooperation mit dem PSA-Konzern aber dennoch durchaus eine Erfolgsgeschichte. Seitdem haben sich die Absatzzahlen der praktisch veranlagten Toyotas in Deutschland insgesamt mehr als verdoppelt. Bislang beschränkte sich der „Zukauf“ allerdings auf das mittelgroße Transportersegment, das als Proace bemerkenswerterweise in 2019 mehr Abnehmer fand, als der Wettbewerber Talento aus Italien. Nun folgt 7 Jahre nach Kooperationsbeginn also Stufe 2 im mengenmäßig hoch interessanten Segment der sogenannten „Car Derived Vans (CDV)“, landläufig auch Hochdachkombis genannt. Der neue VW Caddy-Konkurrent basiert auf der erfolgreichen PSA-Basis, die bereits Berlingo, Partner/Rifter und Combo auf die Räder bringt. Im Vergleich zu seinen Plattformbrüdern, profitiert der Stadtlieferwagen und Familienvan aber z.B. von den 3 Jahren Garantie und der strengen Endabnahme im spanischen Werk durch eigene Mitarbeiter. Übrigens stellen die Proaces neben den Land Cruisern aktuell eine der seltenen Gelegenheiten dar, noch einen neuen Toyota-Diesel zu fahren. Was dem Newcomer dagegen zunächst fehlen wird, ist vor allem Bekanntheit. Aber das Potenzial ist groß. Die PKW-Varianten trotzen sogar dem allgegenwärtigen SUV-Trend und sorgen seit Jahren mit den vielseitigen Multitalenten ohne große Luxus-Allüren für stabilen Absatz zu familienfreundlichen Preisen. Eine Chance für den Toyota-Handel wieder etwas näher an die Jahresmarke von 100.000 Neuzulassungen heran zu kommen – nach Corona versteht sich!

 

 

Newcomer Grafik Mai 2020

 

 

 

 

Schwacke Insights Mai 2020 – monatliche Kennzahlen im Überblick

Die überwiegende Farbe Rot spiegelt die aktuelle Lage gut wieder. Corona bestimmt das Geschehen, prägt sich aber derzeit insbesondere für die dreijährigen Gebrauchten noch moderat aus, im Vergleich zu den jungen Gebrauchten. Auch sind Abpreisungen derzeit noch kein flächendeckendes Phänomen. Waren dreijährige Besitzumschreibungen im März noch „nur“ knapp 20% im Minus ist der April schon bei -45% und der Mai verspricht nicht besser zu werden. Also keine guten Aussichten für Preisstabilität.

Die geplante Kaufprämie wird noch zusätzlich Druck nach unten erzeugen. Und bei den relativ teuren elektrifizierten Antrieben herrscht Katerstimmung, auch wenn es im Neuwagenbereich da bisher noch Grund zur Freude gab. Die Schnelldreher zeigen eines: dass selbst begehrte Modelle nicht mehr unter durchschnittlich 40 Tage kommen.

Insights Mai 2020